marra capital

A soft landing is not just about jobs. It is about a ratcheting up the cost of capital (rate hikes) and having the economy (borrowers) *accept* that cost (take out new loans) without causing a downturn. Credit must roll at the new cost of money in order for the cycle to "land". That's not happening today. Everywhere you look right now, borrowers are doing everything possible to avoid paying higher rates. They don't want to accept them. Mortgages are at multi cycle lows. Bank lending is the slowest of ANY ERA outside recessions. Private credit is all amend & extend games. There is no acceptance of current rates. We're still floating along on income strength and old debts from the 0.25% Fed Funds regime. The "landing" cannot be secured until we see credit rolling at higher borrowing costs without an interruption to growth. So far we're dancing around that outcome in hopes that Powell cuts TREMENDOUSLY before anyone needs more credit. It's a Mexican standoff. No soft landing until this is resolved.