Ram Parimi

Introducing the Scottish-American travel dictionary 🇺🇸🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 We’ve put together this guide to keep the Tartan Army out of trouble in the States. Read carefully to avoid confusing the locals, deeply offending the country, or being interrogated by Homeland Security over a sandwich.

Apollo Global Management, Inc. just dropped their 2026 outlook. h/t @Samsilverman_ “The 14 macro trends every investor needs on their radar: 1. The 45-Million-Person Headwind Student loan payments restarted. Nearly 20% of the population just saw their disposable income shift. The "spend-at-all-costs" era is cooling. 2. A Widening K-Shaped Economy We're not in one economy - we're in two. Asset owners thriving on record highs. Lower-income brackets hitting savings exhaustion. 3. Student Loan Delinquency Spike It's not just about payments. It's about default risk rippling into auto loans and secondary credit markets. 4. The "One Big Beautiful Bill" Starting Jan 1, 2026: 100% immediate deduction on capital expenses. Projected to boost GDP by 0.9% alone. 5. AI Adoption Plateaus Hype cycle over. Adoption rates flattening as companies shift from talking about AI to the grind of actually integrating it. 6. The 60% Capex Concentration Mag 7 now spending 60% of operating cash flow on AI infrastructure. The entire market is betting on AI ROI. 7. Zero Growth in Non-AI Capex Outside the AI arms race? Flat. Traditional industries are getting capital-starved as every spare dollar chases GPUs. 8. The S&P 7 vs. The S&P 493 Margins expanding for tech giants. Declining for everyone else. If you're not an AI provider, you're facing a squeeze. 9. Data Center Construction Slowdown Physical limits reached. Power grid constraints and land scarcity are slowing builds. Power generation is the new bottleneck. 10. The 2026 Maturity Wall Massive wave of corporate debt coming due. A refinancing supercycle is moving billions from banks into private credit. 11. The Death of 10-Year Duration "Higher for longer" is here to stay. Investors fleeing long-duration bonds for floating-rate private credit and short-duration paper. 12. Institutionalization of Sports No longer "alternative." Sports is now a $2.5T institutional opportunity with recession-proof cash flows. 13. Foreign Demand for US Yield Despite trade tensions, foreign capital is flooding US private markets. The US remains the safe haven for AI-linked tech and quality yield. 14. Brief Stagflation Risk The Fed is watching a 1970s-style scenario: tariffs keeping inflation sticky at 3% while growth slows. Active management > passive indexing.” Which trend are you watching closest heading into 2026?