Julian Ranger

You could subscribe to fancy financial news sites for analysis or you could use Julian’s budget bingo card below for what our beloved Chancellor’s budget will contain later this year – please enjoy. (Compiled with a little bit of human intelligence backed by the services of multiple AI LLMs.) UK 26 Nov Budget predictions 07 November 2025 11:42 UK Budget for 26 Nov 25: Plausible Revenue-Raising Measures (Prredictions as of 7 Nov 25) This paper assess options reportedly under discussion for closing a fiscal gap near £50bn/yr. Figures are indicative steady-state yields; near-term takes can be smaller if phased. Ranked Revenue Options (Updated with Latest HMT Modelling) Rank & MeasureWhat might change (plain English)Why it’s on the table / signalsIndicative annual yield 1) Income tax: +1–2p across bandsLift the basic (20%), higher (40%) and additional (45%) rates by 1–2p.Direct, high-yield lever; +1p widely cited at £10–11bn; +2p at £20–22bn. Politically bold but effective.+1p ≈ £10–11bn +2p ≈ £20–22bn 2) Extend freeze of income tax & NI thresholdsKeep personal allowance (£12,570) and higher-rate threshold (£50,270) frozen longer (“fiscal drag”).Stealth revenue; protects headline rate pledges; already in place until 2028 — extension adds £8–10bn.≈ £8–10bn (grows over time) 3) Employer NI on investment income (>£50k)Apply employer NI (~15.05%) to dividends, carried interest, and other investment income above £50k for owner-directors and high earners.Closes “worker vs owner” gap; Labour pledge-compatible; HMT now modelling full scope.≈ £4–6bn (IFS Nov 2025) 4) NICs on LLP partners (“employer NI” parity)Apply employer NI (~15%) to working partners in LLPs and some partnerships.Think-tank favourite; levels playing field with employees.≈ £1bn 5) Fuel duty: reverse 5p cut / resume indexationReverse 2021 temporary 5p/litre cut and/or resume RPI indexation from 2026.OBR assumes reversal later; bringing forward yields £1.8–2.2bn in-year.5p reversal ≈ £4–5bn steady-state In-year (2026/27) ≈ £1.8–2.2bn 6) Pensions tax relief reformFlat-rate relief at 30% (or reduce annual allowance to £40k) instead of 40%/45% for higher earners.~50% of relief goes to top 10%; framed as fairness for basic-rate taxpayers.≈ £3–5bn (IFS central case) 7) NICs on rental incomeLevy NI (e.g., 8%) on landlords’ net rental profits up to higher-rate band.Broadens base beyond ‘working people’; regular HMT option.≈ £2–3bn (design-dependent) 8) Capital gains tax (structural fixes)End CGT uplift at death; tighten Business Asset Disposal Relief; limit other exemptions.IFS: rate hikes underperform — structural fixes score better.End uplift ≈ £1.6bn Relief tightening ≈ £1–2bn 9) Non-dom regime: 2-year FIG + trust crackdownShorten Foreign Income & Gains regime from 4 to 2 years; end protected trust loopholes.Manifesto commitment; HMT now sees higher yield from tougher enforcement.≈ £2.5–3bn 10) Council tax: top-band surge / partial rebandingDouble Bands G–H charges; add Band I; limited revaluation in high-value areas.Targets property wealth; long reform case. Devolved opt-out risk.≈ £3–4bn over time (~£3.3–3.8bn UK-wide by 2029/30) 11) VAT base broadening (not headline rate)Lower VAT registration threshold (£90k → £30–60k); move some reduced-rate items to 20%.Avoids inflation hit of rate rise; fits efficiency narrative.Threshold cut to ~£30k ≈ £2bn Other changes vary 12) R&D relief cap + bank surcharge +1ppCap SME R&D credit; raise bank corporation tax surcharge from 3% to 4%.Low political cost; targets profit-shifting and subsidy abuse.≈ £1.5–2bn combined 13) Air Passenger Duty (APD) tiltsFurther increases on premium cabins / private jets on top of RPI.Already hiked; scope for ‘polluter pays’ tweaks.≈ £0.2–0.6bn 14) Inheritance tax (targeted relief reforms)Tighten agricultural & business reliefs; include more pensions in IHT; refine residence nil-rate band.Narrows avoidance; protects typical family homes.Up to ~£1–2bn (package) 15) EV “pay-per-mile” duty (~3p/mile from ~2028)Distance-based charge on EVs (~3p/mile), reconciled annually via odometer or app (separate from VED).Replaces eroding fuel duty; press reports of ~£250/driver/yr average.≈ £1.0–1.3bn early years Rising to ~£1.8bn by ~2031 Illustrative £50bn Package (In-Year 2026/27 → Steady-State) MeasureIn-Year Take (2026/27)Steady-State Income tax +1.5p across bands£15–16bn£15–16bn Threshold freeze extension£8–10bn£9–11bn Employer NI on investment income£4–5bn£5–6bn NI on landlords£2–3bn£2–3bn Fuel duty partial reversal£1.8–2.2bn£4–5bn Pensions relief reform£3–4bn£4–5bn CGT structural fixes£1.6–2bn£2.5–3bn Council tax top-band move£2bn£3.3–3.8bn Non-dom tightening£2.5bn£2.5–3bn VAT threshold cut£2bn£2bn Total£42–49bn£53–60bn+ If still short in-year, a +1pp VAT rise (~£9–10bn by 2029/30) remains a backstop — but politically least likely. Notes & Caveats •Yields drawn from HMRC ready-reckoners, IFS Green Budget 2025, Resolution Foundation, OBR March 2025, and financial press (FT, Telegraph, Nov 2025 leaks). •Steady-state = full-year effect after phasing. In-year reflects 2026/27 start (e.g., Apr 2026 or part-year). •Behavioural responses (e.g., CGT forestalling, landlord incorporation, pension withdrawal spikes) can reduce net take by 10–25%. •Devolution risk: Scotland/Wales may resist council tax and EV duty — reduces UK yield by ~8–10%. •EV mileage duty grows with fleet size; becomes £5bn+ by mid-2030s as fuel duty collapses.

7 hours on trains today - good and bad. When train days start (broken down train) everything knocks on and my train was stopped short of destination - frustrating but understandable and all staff helped work out alternate routing - good. But .....

Thread. I don't understand NFU's approach to inheritance tax case on Farmers. Demolish the Government position through logic. Everyone pays IHT. Ok we Farmer's should then. (Wait for it!!) Ah you're going to levy IHT on farms at half rate then - well thank you (wait for it!!)

No. 3 If that is fair and surely it must be (but adjust NP and ROIC to your taste) then QUESTION How much must farmers RAISE their prices to get this return level?? I'd hazard a guess at doubling them. So are you are happy with that Labour??? If you're not the STOP IT