Loplop (@real_checkmark) header
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Joined February 2021
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Loplop retweeted
The Morning Ritual
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🚨 New paper🚨 Can LLMs predict how households spend, work and respond to policy? We build a benchmark to find out: HouseholdBench. With great coauthors @jinhuang9306000, @DiegoFerreras, Yutong Xie, Walter Yuan, Qiaozhu Mei and @ChenLian92. (1/7)
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Can endorse.
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Loplop retweeted
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How are prices determined? While I slept, Claude made me "History of economic thought since Aristotle." I asked it to use my favourite textbook (Blaug, Economic Theory in retrospect). The result will astonish of you. Even top economists here will learn something, I promise.
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Loplop retweeted
Jev controls every traffic light in this city when I turn it off the average wait time rises by more than 600% we need this rn
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Loplop retweeted
Reminder
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Loplop retweeted
Isaac Asimov, explaining how he understood the metaphorical meaning of the One Ring and Mordor in Tolkien's ‘Lord of the Rings’ by driving on a New Jersey highway: ⬇️
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me: hey claude I think there's a bug somewhere in the sync logic claude:
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Loplop retweeted
Please write up a brief handoff document describing everything we've tried and what we are attempting to achieve so I can pass it along to another agent
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Replying to @Noahpinion
Evergreen -- the US military's 1943 manual for soldiers headed to China:
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Yesterday, my OpenAI collaborator and I gave a detailed talk on the Huggingface incident, our models creating "the message board", model misalignment, and more. youtube.com/watch?v=87DyyMV0… I hope it can answer a lot of the questions folks have, and we will release a full detailed postmortem at a later time!
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Instead of building a forecast from scratch, which is an exercise in compounding guesses, you take the price the market is giving you and gradually work backward: what growth rate, margin, duration of competitive advantage does this price require to be justified? Then the only question is: is that plausible or insane? That's a dramatically easier cognitive task. You're not predicting the future. You're evaluating whether someone else's implied prediction is reasonable. Falsification rather than construction, Karl Popper would approve. And it naturally surfaces the best opportunities: cases where the market's implied assumptions are obviously wrong in one direction. You don't need to know what a company is worth to know that the market is pricing in something that can't possibly be true. @mjmauboussin has formalized this as "expectations investing" and it's probably the most intellectually honest valuation approach available. It admits what you can't do (forecast) and focuses on what you actually can (judge plausibility).
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Interviewer: So we're headed towards a multipolar world? Ex-Singapore PM Lee Kuan Yew: Absolutely. There will be America and China. And the Indians are going to be themselves. They are not going to be anybody's lackey
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Graph that did them in:
Glad to see the open borders crowd has switched from saying "National traits don't predict immigrant behavior" to "It's immoral to use national traits to shape immigration policy." They know they're losing on the testable is, so they're switching to an untestable ought.
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there are many flavors of intelligence. another really curious case for me is Niels Bohr.
“I wasn’t the fastest guy in the world. I wouldn’t have done well in an Olympiad or a math contest. But I like to ponder. And pondering things, just sort of thinking about it and thinking about it, turns out to be a pretty good approach.’ – Jim Simons
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“The only student of mine I was ever intimidated by. He was so quick. There was a seminar for advanced students in Zürich that I was teaching and von Neumann was in the class. I came to a certain theorem, and I said it is not proved and it may be difficult. Von Neumann didn't say anything but after five minutes he raised his hand. When I called on him he went to the blackboard and proceeded to write down the proof. After that I was afraid of von Neumann.” -George Pólya, *How to Solve It* (1957) 2nd edition.
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