"crazed scientist baron" @MNX_fi @ManifoldMarkets
san francisco
Joined September 2019
- Tweets608
- Following1K
- Followers418
- Likes16.2K
ian retweeted
Dwarkesh: Why would we want to sell China the materials for a serious cyberweapon? It's like selling them nukes with a casing that says 'made by Boeing' and claiming that's good for the US
Jensen: Comparing AI to nukes is lunacy. Enriched uranium is a lousy analogy. It's an illogical analogy. What we have to recognize is that AI is a five-layered cake.
ian retweeted
There's a shocking number of my critics who physiologically cannot imagine believing something that isn't politically popular
It’s cute how @AndyMasley wrote all those little “data centers are good” blogs and then the issue just got absolutely trounced at the polls. Hopefully good riddance to the EA Co-efficient giving cult.
ian retweeted
MNX CMO @AlexMasmej unveils a dashboard where you can bet on AI takeoff, mass job losses, and even the risk of human extinction by 2100:
"We built something for you guys. We call it monitoringthesingularity(.xyz), MTS."
"A dashboard, all powered by MNX markets, where you can see p(doom), RSI. We have markets for all of them."
"For RSI, we base ourselves on the Anthropic transparency disclosures about AI R&D automation."
"If you're actually very short timelines, you can long RSI. You can even long takeoff. We also have a p(doom) market, you can bet on humanity being extinguished or AI takeover by 2100.
"There's also a prediction of a 5% drop in labor workforce, the permanent underclass type market."
@MNX_fi
I built a live dashboard tracking humanity’s biggest AI questions: p(doom), AI takeoff, RSI, job displacement, Open vs Closed source gap, and more.
monitoringthesingularity.xyz
ian retweeted
Estimating LFPR of 58 for Dec '27 seems crazy low given this history.
mnx.fi/trade/lfpr27 fred.stlouisfed.org/series/c…
ian retweeted
17% chance of "before 2028: a verified proof that P = NP, that P ≠ NP, or that the question cannot be decided in standard mathematics (independent of ZFC)" seems way too high. mnx.fi/trade/pnp27
ian retweeted
been waiting for a way to trade OpenAI and Anthropic before they IPO
well, IPO futures on both are live now
AI revenue and model ranking markets too
ian retweeted
About a year ago, a friend who was a super duper early Tesla employee told me he’d put a nontrivial chunk of his savings into a few SPVs: Anduril, Anthropic, and SpaceX (he’s an Elon fan obviously).
As a crypto person, I’d never touched an SPV. But it made sense to me right away, considering how many tokens launch before any products are shipped.
IPO Futures have always been an “insider’s trade.” Insiders aren’t bad actors, they’re savvier investors who understand a wider range of financial instruments. They know there’s a game to be played.
MNX opens up the insider circle, and lets anyone take a position on these companies with just a wallet.
This, is why I still love crypto rails.
Trade the takeoff.
ian retweeted
Amazon went public in 1997 at under half a billion dollars. Anyone with a brokerage account could buy in early.
These days, the AI labs stay private until they’re worth hundreds of billions, if not more. By the time you get a seat, most of the growth is already gone.
This is why @MNX_fi must exist right now and not after the IPOs.
MNX is launching IPO futures for OpenAI, Anthropic, Deepseek, and Moonshot. They are dated futures and carry no funding rate, so traders avoid the recurring payments that can make perp positions more expensive or unpredictable over time.
You can also trade perps on publicly traded stocks, ETFs, and metals like gold and silver.
The prospect of IPO futures may be obvious. Capturing it requires a team that understands both AI and the companies shaping it.
MNX is built by former founders, has deep roots in San Francisco, and is backed by Village Global, Dwarkesh Patel and Byrne Hobart.
Trade the takeoff.
it's been a privilege to work with kelvin on @MNX_fi, he's a super-sharp (and hilarious) market maker. but don't take my word for it, come try to take his money!
Excited to be part of this launch, alongside @StephenGrugett and @realpalebone and @AlexMasmej!
MNX is the only place to trade frontier lab revenue futures, and we have valuation futures (not a perp! - no uncertain funding payments).
We also have exciting AI prediction markets. I particularly like our new TAKEOFF market.
It tracks whether released AI models will accelerate *beyond* the capability trendline before 2028.
mnx.fi/trade/takeoff
We do this by settling on @EpochAIResearch's ECI index being higher than equal to 200.
To me, that's a specific bet on RSI showing up on public model capabilities (skeptics of RSI might consider a bet against it).
ian retweeted
Excited to be part of this launch, alongside @StephenGrugett and @realpalebone and @AlexMasmej!
MNX is the only place to trade frontier lab revenue futures, and we have valuation futures (not a perp! - no uncertain funding payments).
We also have exciting AI prediction markets. I particularly like our new TAKEOFF market.
It tracks whether released AI models will accelerate *beyond* the capability trendline before 2028.
mnx.fi/trade/takeoff
We do this by settling on @EpochAIResearch's ECI index being higher than equal to 200.
To me, that's a specific bet on RSI showing up on public model capabilities (skeptics of RSI might consider a bet against it).
ian retweeted
270M+ miles. 841 fewer injury-causing crashes.
Our latest safety data shows the Waymo Driver continues to make roads safer for everyone.
Compared to human drivers across 5 territories, it reduced:
📉 Injury crashes by 82%
📉 Serious injury crashes by 95%
Full data: waymo.com/safety/impact
ian retweeted
Trading competition update: 8 days left.
Trade OpenAI, Anthropic, and more for a shot at the $10,000 top prize.
Climb the leaderboard: app.mnx.fi/leaderboard
ian retweeted
Astra + ¼ of OpenAI's production engineers + (conservative estimate) $5m inference for cyber defense was defeated by like three guys with $5k of Opus 5 inference on offense.
Everything might be cooked.
Also another point for "invert every conclusion a16z broadcasts"
Greg Brockman says OpenAI pointed Astra at its own systems until it ran out of vulnerabilities to find:
"We took 25% of our production engineers and said, 'Sorry, all your projects are on hold. You are now defending. You are now up-leveling our security architecture. You're going to use the models to find all the holes.' And we found a number of serious issues, and we fixed them."
"We found some new problems, but eventually it saturated. We basically have found, to our knowledge, all of the P0s, all of the critical problems that Astra is smart enough to find. And of course, there will be a new model, there will be a new round."
"You want to be in this tight loop of new cyber capability drops, you deploy it against your systems, you find the new holes, and ideally, you've managed to automate this, what we call defense factory. That's what we're building internally."
"There are ideas, for example, formally verifying all of software, that are possible with AI."
@gdb @bhorowitz
ian retweeted
the time has come to reinvent talking from first principles.
@MachineGodsPod x @NPR, starting the week of 10/19, on youtube or wherever you get your podcasts.
ian retweeted
OpenAI was hacked via the exact library mentioned in the xkcd comic hahahaha
The prophecy is fulfilled
