Reed Esau ๐Ÿ˜บ (@reedes) header
Reed Esau ๐Ÿ˜บ (@reedes) profile picture

The bad kind of skeptic, coder, hiker, diver, and skier. Recently authored book series dealing with bullsh*t, summarized at #RealityTrackingDaily

Space Coast, Free State of FL
Joined February 2008
Photo by Reed Esau ๐Ÿ˜บ (@reedes)Photo by Reed Esau ๐Ÿ˜บ (@reedes)Photo by Reed Esau ๐Ÿ˜บ (@reedes)Photo by Reed Esau ๐Ÿ˜บ (@reedes)Photo by Reed Esau ๐Ÿ˜บ (@reedes)Photo by Reed Esau ๐Ÿ˜บ (@reedes)Photo by Reed Esau ๐Ÿ˜บ (@reedes)Photo by Reed Esau ๐Ÿ˜บ (@reedes)Photo by Reed Esau ๐Ÿ˜บ (@reedes)
Spoke with elderly neighbor who said heโ€™d seen nothing like this storm in the 30 years heโ€™s been here. (Presumably a direct-hit hurricane could do it though.)
Before purchase Iโ€™d taken precaution of ensuring house is not located in severe flood zone. That may have helped, as water got close but still several inches below interior floor surface, so no intrusion. Many houses in other developments did get flooded!
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Nov 5 - FALSE EQUIVALENCE treats two cases as if they deserve the same judgment after the differences that matter have been flattened or ignored. The cases often share something real. The distortion is making that feature carry too much. 1/3 #RealityTrackingDaily
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Symmetry is not the same as comparability. Two actions both involve harm, risk, or norm-breaking, but the scale, intent, evidence, consequence, and responsibility may differ sharply. Parity can sound fair while hiding asymmetry. 2/3
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Ask: equal in what respect, and do the remaining differences matter to the conclusion? If the parity claim survives plain comparison, it may be sound. If it needs abstraction and vagueness, beware. 3/3
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The need for reality-tracking habits doesn't lessen when your preferred faction takes power. Vulnerability shifts from having dealt with misleading illusions created by opponents to now dealing with self-serving ones created by your own side.
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Nov 4 - LABELS are compressed signals that often arrive carrying more judgment than description. They can help orient you quickly, but the shortcut becomes dangerous when it pretends to be the whole account. 1/3 #RealityTrackingDaily
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A label tells you what kind of thing this is supposed to be and what posture to take toward it. Call something misinformation, reform, extremist, professional, or conspiracy, and attention has already been nudged. 2/3
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Ask what the label means here, what it compresses, and what it leaves out. Then describe the case without the loaded word. A label can orient inquiry. It should not relieve you of the job of seeing. 3/3
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Before purchase Iโ€™d taken precaution of ensuring house is not located in severe flood zone. That may have helped, as water got close but still several inches below interior floor surface, so no intrusion. Many houses in other developments did get flooded!
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I should buy flood insurance
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Example from FEMA of houses in zones which were hit hard. It's a few miles from me. (Given proximity to creek I assume even houses in unhighlighted area were hit too!)
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Good example of publicly opining on a topic that he hasnโ€™t investigated beyond the insular bubble he inhabits. A university professor at that!
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Nov 3 - PRIMARY SOURCE means material closer to the original event, statement, record, or dataset than the summary you first encountered. The transcript, filing, study, full clip, or raw record can show what later layers did to the evidence. 1/3 #RealityTrackingDaily
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Going upstream can reveal omitted caveats, misleading crops, selective quotes, or uncertainty stripped out by confident retelling. Sometimes it confirms the summary was fair. That is useful too. Intermediaries do not always deceive, but they transform. 2/3
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Primary sources are not magic. Closer is not self-interpreting. Use them when the claim is important, disputed, and heavily mediated. The goal is not theater of rigor, but better contact with what the evidence can and cannot show. 3/3
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My โ€˜Welcome to Floridaโ€™ deluge of rain overnight. Cat and I will retreat to camper van if water intrudes into house. โ›ˆ๏ธ
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It was the high mark. My efforts to prepare for water intrusion into house were for naught! Now water slowly receding as the storm drains accept it.
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City has shut off water due to a main break. Glad to have filled my camper van's storage tank this morning anticipating problems due to flooding.
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