Real analysis of news affecting markets and the world 🦅Prediction markets 🦅 Follow for alpha threads
Joined July 2021
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1-hour-old Polymarket wallet just bet $68,000 on Bolsonaro.
Brazil is still voting.
This is its first bet ever.
Only one market: Brazil's election.
$68K in → $85K out if Bolsonaro wins.
$0 if Lula wins.
Polls close tonight.
First round: Bolsonaro 47%, Lula 45%.
Polymarket odds when it bought: 80%.
This wallet:
polymarket.com/profile/0x732…
I'll post the result here.
Today the IRGC named seven major undersea cables under the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, saying “all the world’s internet and commercial data depend on them.”
99% of global internet traffic travels through undersea cables. Up to 20% of worldwide internet and financial data flows through that strait. The systems include AAE-1, FALCON, Gulf Bridge International, Tata TGN-Gulf and others linking the Gulf, India, Asia and Europe.
IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi stated: “Seven major cables pass beneath the Strait of Hormuz, and all the world’s internet and commercial data depend on them. We are reminding the enemy of this so they know.”
“Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by…?” is still pricing Yes at ~3–12% depending on the date.
polymarket.com/event/will-ir…
What just happened:
→ IRGC publicly named the cables as leverage
→ Previous warnings from Mohsen Rezaei targeted cables + data centers if fighting resumes
→ No confirmed physical cuts yet
Rules require deliberate physical damage by Iran or listed proxies (cutting, dragging, explosives). Cyber or accidental damage does not count. Retail sees the threat. The market still treats actual cuts as a long shot. One confirmed incident and the odds reprice hard.
US FIGHTER JET SHOT DOWN OVER IRAN
> One crew member rescued.
> Intense search underway for the second.
> Prediction markets exploding.
Odds of major US forces entering Iran have surged sharply.
Trading volume now +$100 MILLION.
This could mean big escalation ahead.
🚨 Hormuz trap.
Iran claims control of the strait carrying 20% of global oil.
Tanker traffic down ~90%.
Trump considers U.S. escorts for ships.
One hit tanker could trigger a long maritime war.
Prediction markets now show ~80–90% risk of disruption.
That’s one of the fastest geopolitical repricings I’ve seen.
Just 7 days ago the market priced a 15% chance that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz.
Today it's 81%.
And the real world is already reacting.
Supertankers are backing away from the Persian Gulf.
More than 60 tankers are idling or slowing down.
Some are rerouting to the Atlantic or the Red Sea.
Freight rates are exploding.
Insurance costs are surging.
Oil traders are scrambling for supply.
Why it matters:
~20% of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz.
If that corridor closes even temporarily,
global energy markets get hit instantly.
Prediction markets moved before most headlines.
Watch the probability move in real time here:
polymarket.com/event/will-ir…
This is becoming one of the most closely watched geopolitical markets right now.
That’s one of the fastest geopolitical repricings I’ve seen.
Just 7 days ago the market priced a 15% chance that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz.
Today it's 81%.
And the real world is already reacting.
Supertankers are backing away from the Persian Gulf.
More than 60 tankers are idling or slowing down.
Some are rerouting to the Atlantic or the Red Sea.
Freight rates are exploding.
Insurance costs are surging.
Oil traders are scrambling for supply.
Why it matters:
~20% of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz.
If that corridor closes even temporarily,
global energy markets get hit instantly.
Prediction markets moved before most headlines.
Watch the probability move in real time here:
polymarket.com/event/will-ir…
This is becoming one of the most closely watched geopolitical markets right now.
THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS TOTALLY CLOSED
APPROXIMATELY OVER 300 VESSELS ARE CURRENTLY ANCHORED NEAR THE STRAIT
BREAKING: IRGC says Hormuz will be shut and ships trying to pass will be set on fire.
Prediction markets just exploded from 40% to 70% in minutes.
That’s a massive repricing of global energy risk.
polymarket.com/event/will-ir…
BREAKING: IRGC says Hormuz will be shut and ships trying to pass will be set on fire.
Prediction markets just exploded from 40% to 70% in minutes.
That’s a massive repricing of global energy risk.
polymarket.com/event/will-ir…
Reuters and Axios are now also reporting that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been eliminated by an Israeli strike this morning on Tehran.
Meanwhile, prediction markets are pricing a 99% probability.
+$499K in hours.
From $56K to over half a million.
Yesterday he was buying this at 10% odds
for Feb 28 US strikes Iran.
Now it’s 100%.
Is this insane timing…
or does someone know something?
Will the US hit Iran before midnight tomorrow?
One trader just put $44K on that
and right now his position is up +73%.
That means real money is behind the fear of escalation.
Diplomacy is sputtering, warships are in place.
Wins $418K
Check his profile: polymarket.com/@0x1caA6a7ad0…
Will the US hit Iran before midnight tomorrow?
One trader just put $44K on that
and right now his position is up +73%.
That means real money is behind the fear of escalation.
Diplomacy is sputtering, warships are in place.
Wins $418K
Check his profile: polymarket.com/@0x1caA6a7ad0…
🚨 BREAKING:
President Trump directs the Secretary of War and federal agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, UAPs, and UFOs.
Markets reacted instantly.
On Polymarket, the probability that the U.S. confirms aliens exist before 2027 has surged above 20%.
That’s a massive spike.
Capital is repricing disclosure risk in real time.
Vitalik Buterin just called prediction markets “corposlop.”
But what if I told you he’s quietly one of the most disciplined traders on Polymarket?
In his Jan 28 interview, he said he deployed $440,000 and generated over $70,000 in profit by doing one simple thing:
find markets in “crazy mode” → bet the crazy thing won’t happen.
So I went digging.
One public Polymarket wallet matches those numbers almost perfectly.
This wallet:
> polymarket.com/0xb0f261723df…
Public stats show:
3 deposits mid-2024 → $430K
$95K all-time profit
45 predictions total
The pattern is what makes this remarkable.
Every single position is NO.
Not some. All of them.
This isn’t speculation.
It’s systematic anti-hysteria positioning.
Three mechanics define the edge:
1. Target markets that enter emotional overdrive.
2. Price the tail risk calmly while others chase headlines.
3. Scale across independent events and let probability mean-revert.
No insider information. No privileged access.
Just discipline and structure.
If this attribution is correct (still unconfirmed), it reveals something powerful:
Vitalik isn’t fighting the casino.
He’s selling mispriced probability back to it.
Bookmark this.
Proof:
In his Jan 28 interview with @Foresight_News, Vitalik explicitly stated he deployed $440,000 and generated over $75,000 by betting against “frenzy mode” markets.
Translation here:
teapawt.net/706Dao42519/status/201…
He even cited examples like fading “Trump Nobel Prize” and “Dollar collapse.”
The thesis is public. The pattern is observable.
:::: The wildest BTC bot on Polymarket ::::
The numbers are wild:
5,000+ bets/month → +$50K/month
That’s why it works?
It’s systematic execution on 15-minute BTC markets, where volatility constantly creates small pricing lags.
ClawdBot reacts to CEX price moves faster than Polymarket updates.
Short timeframes = permanent inefficiencies.
Low-risk real-time arbitrage, repeated thousands of times.
Profile → polymarket.com/@likebot?via=…
The bot runs 24/7.
Manual trading can’t compete with that.
If you’re curious how systems like this are actually built,
I’ll be posting a detailed, step-by-step breakdown soon.
Bookmark this.
This is the current ClawdBot BTC meta.
Here’s how Polymarket BTC 15m bots actually work:
1. Track Polymarket BTC 15m markets
2. Mirror the same Chainlink BTC feed
3. Watch CEX prices for tiny delays
4. Enter when Polymarket lags
5. Scale with frequency, not accuracy
Automation beats emotion every time.
This coder flipped a $6K deposit into $1,000,000 in one month.
Know how to program? Don’t limit yourself to a job.
He created his own Polymarket trading bot.
The account is 1 month old. He’s making around ~$30K per day.
polymarket.com/@0x8dxd?via=r…
