Roberto Gomez Cram retweeted
Let's face it, most academics aren't particularly good at getting things done. I'm not either. But this guy is. I know him a little bit.
Roberto Gomez Cram retweeted
Why France, why now? Over the last couple of years, the French political class has been signaling to the bond market that its pensioners/boomers are the de facto senior claimants on the French Treasury's revenue. And that's not what bond investors wanted to hear, especially now that they're being asked to absorb a much larger share of issuance than a couple of years ago.
thetwocents.substack.com/p/l…
RT @QuentinVandewe2: Annuler la dette publique détenue par la Banque de France ne crée pas d’argent magique.
Dans Le Monde, avec @ojblanch…
Prediction Markets Conference!
Have a paper on prediction markets? Submit it here:
ssrn.com/index.cfm/en/janda/…
📅 Conference: 23 October 2026 @ Yale
⏳ Submission deadline: 30 August 2026
Roberto Gomez Cram retweeted
I spoke with @Dispatch_DD about why market participants are willing to pay for early access to President @realDonaldTrump’s social‑media posts: he moves markets, and there’s no filter between the source and the readers. Early access allows for potentially large market gains – at Forte dei Marmi, Tuscany
Analyzing the effects of financial repression on inflation and bond risk premia in a model with bondholders and taxpayers, from @rgomezcram, @HowardKung2, @HannoLustig, and David Zeke nber.org/papers/w35391
We had the opportunity to speak with @rgomezcram and @theisij123 about their paper on prediction‑market accuracy.
Read the full interview here: spkl.io/60137G3nh
#PredictionMarkets #MarketEfficiency #Forecasting #Polymarket
Roberto Gomez Cram retweeted
1/In our new paper, 📢📢“Government Funding Costs Under Financial Repression” we set out to analyze how financial repression can change the dynamics of inflation, bond yields and bond risk premia when it’s added to their toolbox. By recalibrating the size and the timing of bondholder losses in response to government spending shocks, governments, central banks, and financial regulators can lower the risk premia on nominal bonds and thus bring down the government’s funding costs. We find that repression can even turn bonds into a hedge. But it’s not a free lunch for bond holders.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…
Roberto Gomez Cram retweeted
Happy that our paper "Currency risk under capital controls" is accepted by JIE. We study an often neglected aspect of capital control: how does it affect currency risk and return? We find more controlled EM currencies have lower risk and returns.
Link: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…
Polymarket prices are highly accurate in predicting future events. The source of that accuracy is less obvious.
In a new working paper, we find it is not the “wisdom of crowds,” but a small minority of informed traders.
Fewer than 3% of accounts appear to drive price discovery; most perform no better than chance.
The majority generates most of the volume but little of the information, effectively funding the informed minority.
Check the paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…
🤖 Made with AI
Roberto Gomez Cram retweeted
This academic paper says Polymarket earnings forecasts are more accurate than 1) analysts 2) bias-adjusted analyst forecasts 3) the firm's historical beat rate
But it also says this mightttt be coz of insider trading at a particular auditor
Roberto Gomez Cram retweeted
Looking forward to this new chapter in a great organisation. What a daunting task to follow Hyun!
Hélène Rey, Professor of Economics at @LBS, is appointed as Economic Adviser and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department, replacing Hyun Song Shin, from 1 September 2026
bit.ly/4skt7zc
Deadline approaching for the LBS Summer Finance Symposium! Don’t forget to submit your paper 😊
Conference Dates: June 5-6, 2026
Submission Deadline: March 30, 2026 (23:59 BST)
Details and applications: lbssummerfinancesymposium.uk…
Roberto Gomez Cram retweeted
Postdoctoral position at London Business School: london.edu/faculty-and-resea…
Roberto Gomez Cram retweeted
Only 8 days left to submit your work for the Human x AI Finance conference! ⏳
That's plenty of time to give heavily AI-assisted paper writing a shot. 😉
To answer a frequent question we've been getting: the "x" is meant to be multiplicative, not vs.
Why submit?
- help discover what the future of research looks like.
- 🏆 $1,000 prize for the best paper.
- ✈️ The top 4 papers will be invited for presentation at the Fink Center Conference on Financial Markets at UCLA Anderson School of Management (travel and lodging included).
🔗 humanxaifinance.org/
#ArtificialIntelligence #Finance #FinTech #Research #CallForPapers #UCLA
Roberto Gomez Cram retweeted
thousands of amateur gamblers are beating Wall Street PhDs...
nytimes.com/2026/02/11/busin…
Prediction market prices on earnings announcements reflect real-time, stake-backed beliefs about firm fundamentals.
New paper with Theis, Yunhan, and Howard.
Recently covered in the @nytimes: shorturl.at/pkXuJ
You can also find the paper here: shorturl.at/0XKjm
Roberto Gomez Cram retweeted
Good Judgment is featured in today’s @nytimes on the future of forecasting. Our CEO Dr. Warren Hatch @wfrhatch discusses how Superforecasters have an edge when the data is sparse and the environment is in flux.
nytimes.com/2026/02/11/busin…
Roberto Gomez Cram retweeted
I've always found seminar preparation to be one of the trickiest parts of academic research.
Inspired by @ben_golub and @alexolegimas, I vibe coded Dry Run -- a tool to practice presentations with an AI-powered audience that interrupts you in real-time.

























