I made $25,000 last night on the last primary election of the season because everyone was WRONG about one thing... When I first looked at the New Hampshire primary slate I wasn't sure I was gonna trade it. there was seemingly no "close" race. In CD1 Stefany Shaheen was down to JUST 13%. My first thought was "that name Shaheen rings a bell" oh yeah her mom is the Senator in the state and was pretty popular actually (performing better than biden). I thought Sullivan must've been an incredible candidate and have some really good apparatus to justify these election odds. It turns out ALL she had was 3 polls... 3 polls that had her +5 on average in this race. and i'm not being dramatic, you can check the pre election odds yourself, every day the polls got released the odds moved like 20%+. Aug, 20,26 and Sep 2. I will put a side by side in the comments. when I looked at these polls, I was shocked. who tf would look at these crosstabs and think this is bullish for sullivan. NOT only were the mothodologies and demos on these polls completely booty, but they were actually BULLISH for Shaheen when you model the real electorate. So this is where I realized I may have something. but of course I still had to do my full background on each candidate and see which coalitions they each branch into to start building my model. So after i did my qualitative research into stuff like Endorsements. Donor bases. Local political networks. Candidate backgrounds. Geography. Campaign organization. Ideological lanes etc.... I basically rebuilt the race from the ground up. I built a town by town model for all 75 towns in NH-01 just like I do in every race, pulling historical Democratic primary turnout, Sullivan's own 2018 primary performance, past presidential and statewide Democratic results, and the 2020 presidential primary to understand how different ideological coalitions had historically distributed geographically. I layered that with age, education and other demographic data, then built individual turnout expectations for each town instead of assuming the electorate would look like the polls samples obviously. I knew this was gonna be a super close race, so to get my final prediction I combined those quantitative inputs with the qualitative work im really good at. and for the final model.... I had Shaheen +1.22%, with sullivan taking Manchester but Shaheen dominating the central Dover coast, which is exactly what prepelled her over the line. To be fair though I did expect Sullivan to perform better in the Manchestor suburbs and Shaheen to do better in portsmouth, but they crossed each other out in the end and Shaheen took the election by about 2.5% sitting here writing this I ask myself the question, why didnt I go harder, well Im still gaining the confidence in my modeling since I literally grinded this all out in 24 houts, and its hard to not second guess yourself when "sharps" are putting up 12k bids at 86. but so far I have been almost perfect. This was my LARGEST election win so far and I have the polls to thank for it. With the midterms coming up Im going to start sharing a lot of my analysis about some underground races that most people arent looking at. It might not be those big flashy races that make you the most money, so make sure to follow along. the next 2 months are gonna be a lot of fun! When do you think people are gonna stop blindly tailing polls?

Everyone keeps telling me sports are the most efficent markets in all of Prediction markets... so how did I just make another $35k this weekend going 3/3 on sub 18% strikes. I spent a few hours this week sifting through all 100+ NCAAF/NFL games on the slate and found 2 that I thought were extemely mispriced games. Im talking games in my mind that were 20-30% EV. Only 2 games out of 100. Thats basically been my approach since football has started: be ridiculously picky, risk fairly little so if im wrong it aint a big deal and swing fairly big when the EV is massive. Dont let the prices fool your opinion. And the funny part is sports isn’t even close to my main focus. Elections + mentions are where I spend most of my time. I thought I would never trade sports again after loosing 60k last year, but now that I have a MUCH better mindset, i think its possible to succeed on the side while I start to lock in on the midterms more. I may start posting more of these before the games just for fun but I really do not want my page to become a sports betting page. I still want the main focus to be on Political trading like elections and mentions, but my dms/discord are always open if yall wanna talk alpha!

I have been experimenting in some new categories this weekend. I was down nearly 60k in sports last year and swore I would never touch it again when I started my kalshi $1k to $1M challenge. Maybe there is money to be made in sports?

Please take some time and look into just how bad these polls were. Didnt people learn after Hong to build their own models and not tail polls?

+$25,000 last night on NH01 receipts. hopefully the first of my big election wins! I love polls filling me at 14 cents

Last few hours before I lock myself in my room until the midterm elections are over and we make $100k trading them. Next 2 months are gonna be absolute rigatohni pasta. Lock in

Nice little day in the stock market while I take the day off from trading Prediction Markets!

I LOVE ALASKA! this is great. people withdrawing day of certification is great for the economy!

Can Kalshi make a credit card where we get no fee trading if we spend on it?

Love elections but man I’m exhausted

Thank you all for rockin with me tonight! What another incredible night in South Carolina! Will recap it all soon lol! looks like mazzei also gonna pull it off in OK as well!

South Carolina Runoff Election LIVE Results Analysis with Rigatohni xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1rxmqpjOj…