ai agents @ambr_io / ex. investment & research @ambergroup_io

opinions my own
Joined May 2022
got some good pushback on my $PEARL fundraise post. here's my response to the main points, and how i think the team could fix them. 1) "this fundraise has been known for months." no it hasn't. it's been a rumor, and an unverified one. one of israel's largest business papers, @TheMarker, published the exact details yesterday ($55M in equity and a $75M GPU fund). that's the first time we’ve gotten actual numbers on it, and the team still hasn't confirmed it. this goes back to transparency. why isn't the team announcing or confirming this? why do holders have to find out through rumors and business papers instead of directly from the team? 2) "pearl's whitepaper clearly states that difficulty was lowered for the first 10% of supply to fund operations." the issue is again transparency. that's 210M $PEARL, ~59% of today's circulating supply, or ~$380M at today's price. we don't know how much of that the team mined, how much they still hold, or how much they've sold. one reply says the team mined less than 5% of the network. maybe, but the team hasn't published anything that lets holders check that. 3) "they raised capital to build a GPU farm to add hashrate to their own network!" yes, more hashrate is better. i agree. but if that fund mines $PEARL (which it almost certainly will), it centralizes the network around the team even more than it already is. the team ships the code and the upgrades. $75M buys roughly 2,500-3,000 H100s, which could make the lab one of the largest miners on pearl. as someone put it, "whoever controls the majority of the network's hashrate ultimately decides which chain gets secured..." so we're comfortable with the dev controlling a growing chunk of the hashrate, without disclosing how much? that takes away a lot of the credible neutrality and decentralization that make blockchains, and especially SoV assets, valuable. 4) "trying to accrue value to the token would invite additional valuation frameworks, which can only result in a lower valuation ceiling." i disagree. $PEARL is a lot less credibly neutral than other PoW assets like bitcoin, zcash, or even monero. it's also missing what monetary assets need: > low inflation (supply grows ~85% this year) > deep liquidity (~$8M of daily volume) > transparency from the team (undisclosed holdings + fundraise) > years of evidence that it works (it's 6 months old) so right now, the SoV case is weak, and a second source of value would help, not hurt. look at ethereum. it's valued as an infrastructure token (it returns value to holders thru staking and burns) and as a monetary asset (it's the main collateral across DeFi, it's the gas currency for ethereum and most of its L2s, and ~$18B of it sits in spot ETFs). a claim on value accrual gives a token fundamental support. monetary premium is the most fragile part of a token's price. when zcash's orchard bug was disclosed in may, $ZEC fell ~50% in two days even though nothing about its fundamentals changed. 5) “there is no equity/token split. pearl research labs is an equity business AI lab, completely separate from the token." this isn't accurate. they are not completely separate. the lab ships the code, the early low-difficulty window was set up to fund its operations, and its GPU fund will likely mine $PEARL. and the part that is separate is the part that makes money. that's what an equity/token split is. here is the test i use: > does the lab make money without the token? yes, it sells inference in USD. > does the token share in that revenue? no. > are any buybacks programmatic? no. > could the lab keep growing while $PEARL falls? yes. so the business and the token have to be valued separately. if $PEARL went to zero tomorrow, the lab would lose its mining subsidy, but it could keep selling inference on its own GPUs. the counter is that the team holds $PEARL, so their incentives are aligned with holders. but that only goes so far. the team also owns equity in the lab, and so do VCs who may not hold any $PEARL. when the token and the business want different things, like whether inference gets sold for USD or $PEARL, the lab will answer to its equity holders. and we still don't know how much $PEARL the team holds, whether any of it is locked, or how much they've sold. there are ways to fix this though: 1) TRANSPARENCY. disclose how much $PEARL the team and investors mined and hold, how much they've sold, who invested, and what share of the hashrate the lab controls. for a SoV asset, this is the most important thing a team can provide. it's why @blockworks has a token transparency framework. 2) FIX TOKENOMICS. accept $PEARL for inference, and burn the $PEARL that comes in instead of selling it. that adds demand for the token and helps offset miner selling. (i know. i know. "this is a SoV token, it doesn't need utility bro!!" but as i outlined above, it can/should have more than one source of value). 3) USE THE REVENUE FOR THE TOKEN, NOT THE TEAM'S AND VCs' POCKETS. most or all of the lab's inference profit should go to buying back and burning $PEARL. make it a fixed policy with burns sent to a published onchain address, not a verbal promise or something left to discretion. 4) CAP THE LAB'S HASHRATE. commit to keeping the lab's own mining under a set share of the network, and report it publicly. 5) TIME. supply growth drops to ~33% next year, ~18% the year after, and ~12% after that. by then the team could prove it's a credibly neutral dev, and $PEARL could have a real case as a SoV. bitcoin is 17 years old. zcash is 10. $PEARL is 6 months. if the team addresses the first four, i'll revisit my bearish view.
not officially confirmed, but @TheMarker, israel's main business paper, is reporting that @prlnet's lab raised $130M from lightspeed, ribbit capital, and square peg. $55M in equity and $75M for a fund to build out GPU infrastructure. ribbit and lightspeed are also named as pearl backers on its profile in greenfield partners' disruptors 60 list. if this is real, the $PEARL bear case gets a lot worse. here's why: 1) $PEARL traded on a "no VCs, fair launch" story. pearl's code doesn't allocate tokens to founders or investors, and that part is probably still true. but the lab behind pearl is reportedly VC-backed, and nobody corrected the narrative while it pumped. 2) the value goes to the equity, not the token. the lab sells inference and gets paid in USD, and the VCs own the lab. $PEARL holders don't get any of that revenue, just diluted by new supply. so the investors can do well even if $PEARL goes to zero. 3) it goes against the "sovereignless bitcoin" pitch. part of bitcoin's monetary premium is that no company controls it. pearl's upgrades are drafted by a VC-backed lab, including the FP8 fork that would tie mining more closely to inference, the same business the lab sells. 4) the $75M GPU fund. we don't know if those GPUs mine $PEARL. if they do, the company is collecting a share of ~85% supply growth this year, on top of whatever insiders mined early. remember that about 1/3 of today's supply was mined in the first 6 days. 5) zcash had investors too (20% of its early block rewards went to founders and investors) but that was public from day 1. everyone knew who got paid and how much. pearl hasn't disclosed any of that. holders deserve to know: > who invested > whether any investors or insiders hold $PEARL > whether the GPU fund mines $PEARL a fair launch shouldn't need a newspaper to tell you who's behind it. i was a $PEARL bear on friday. i'm a bigger one now.
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varun showing the inner workings of our industry
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EON IV. T–48H.
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getting quite bullish internet monies. debasement from current debt situation + ai ponzu bailout = btc flows but quantum is the other side which is going to let other SoV's work as a hedge to btc. 2027 is a big money year for the coins imo.
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We’re building the ultimate foundation for digital money, all based on Proofs. Has the research been daunting? Yes. Has it been risky? Also yes. But that’s what Proof of Work is, taking the risks, doing the work, and letting the chips fall where they may.
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rob retweeted
Replying to @andyyy
We’ve been building @Nockchain since 2023, launched $NOCK in mid-2025. Hard-capped supply, no pre-mine, Proof-based money. Programmability, Privacy, and Proof of Useful Work. All enabled by ZKPs.
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what i imagine its like to get investment advice from people in person at Token2049
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amazing line of thinking but unfortunately its the wrong coin for that narrative i understand its a trade via perps. w/e but i truly think finding the correct coin in this narrative is more than a trade. its quite literally what eth is to btc. generational spot hold
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safetrade will flip binance mindshare
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safetrade should launch a coin
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rob retweeted
Feel free to worry about whether we can execute on our vision. But you’re doing a great job of highlighting what @Nockchain’s vision is. By focusing on building up the foundation, a no pre-mine PoW chain that’s ZK-native, all of those features fall out naturally. $NOCK is compute-backed money. It will be programmable. It will be private. All of those are features that come from Proofs.
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rob retweeted
Replying to @brezshares
Is the $NOCK pivot in the room with us right now? This is a pre-launch talk I gave in 2023. Proof of Useful Work. Privacy. Programmability. All built on Zero Knowledge Proofs. That was @Nockchain at inception, and that’s @Nockchain now. I get that your fragile narrative needs some way to spin anyone else in the Proof of Useful Work space negatively, but there’s no need to lie or make things up. We have a different focus from your favorite bag, and have been aiming for Proof of Useful Work before anyone else. Multiple coins exist in the world, and that’s okay. youtu.be/TlZGbF8wr8o?si=CS5j…
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rob retweeted
Moneyness is an emergent property. Money is a Schelling point for value storage, exchange, and accounting. A system of coinage may achieve Moneyness if a growing network of people use it to store, exchange, and account for a stable or increasing amount of value over time. Storing value requires credible security. Exchanging value benefits from speed, ease, and flexibility. Accounting benefits from neutral immutability and lindyness. Digital money has some key benefits: neutral security can be proven, transfer can occur globally and quickly, and smart contracts can provide flexible, programmable constructs for interacting with value. Digital coins aiming at achieving Moneyness have converged to two primary shapes: - PoW, hard-capped supply coins with no pre-mine - PoS, pre-mined coins with flexible supply, inflation with burn mechanics to offset Moneyness is built up over time by a network of people using a coin; it isn’t achieved overnight. I strongly believe that PoW-shaped networks are the best candidates for global acceptance as Money. I began working on $NOCK back in 2023. I modeled the @Nockchain design after my good friend (Akis Kattis)’s 2020 research paper called Proof of Necessary Work, which imagined a PoUW network built on top of Zero Knowledge Proofs. Our team launched @Nockchain with no pre-mine in May of 2025, and we quickly became the largest ZK-proving network in the world (though the proofs being generated are not yet used by the network). We’re moving quickly toward privacy and programmability, all built on the same Proofs that secure the network. This summer we launched our AI Compute Network, which has 25 ExaMAC/s of compute and is presently merge-mining ~55% of Pearl blocks. We’re continuing research on making the AI Compute Network into useful verifiable inference. I’m happy to see more teams joining the Proof of Useful Work space. It’s good for the future of crypto for attention to be moving toward this important area of research. The question of Moneyness is a long game and will play out over time. Really, these economic experiments will be proven out through distribution over the course of years and decades.
I think trying to do all those things at once is exactly why it’s not money, programmability & complexity is -EV for money
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wake up.
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Replying to @tulipking
The xmr/zec argument makes no sense to me they are both ~10B+ market cap assets and both have been live/tradable for many years. I have bought some pearl, that said I’m more bullish on nock and using pearl as a hedge on my nock bag. These things will move violently (and in both directions) way too early to tell who wins in the end. That said, I like @loganallc vision and relentless work ethic. I actually think you are completely wrong that they won’t trade well alongside each other. (Maybe not in the same daily candles) but nock pulled a 5x off the lows while pearl was chopping 2 weeks ago, and now pearl is ripping w nock chopping etc. There is very little liquidity for both coins rn and I expect them both to continue to re-rate higher alongside each other. Competition is good. Also for your xmr/zec example, for many years it looked like xmr was the winner of privacy. So if pearl has a higher mcap now who tf cares. This is a multi-cycle play, if we are correct on the thesis. FWIW I agree that Zec has rewritten the rules of crypto investing and investing in crypto as money is imo, one the ways to truly outperform this cycle. Lastly, I respect pearl holders being on the front line of PoUW as an investable category. Anyways, Nock to multi billions. Cheers
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rob retweeted
I'd do a pod with @tulipking, happy to chat on the base:0x9b5e262cf9bb04869ab40b19af91d2dc85761722 thesis
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when i first joined amber's vc team, i used to overly care about the "tech". i would get so involved in it, akin to someone caring about rare traits on a nft or something. i think any other vc analyst would agree if they ever bull posted the "modular chain thesis". i had the opportunity to watch a lot of projects launch. their pre-tge plans, and how it played out post-tge. most project's token performance did not live up to expectations. its not that the tech was bad, it was that the token was set up to fail due to predatory token allocations. however if you purely optimized for the tech and not the token dynamics, you lost! right now to me, only 2 things matter. proof of work coins and memecoins. both can truly be fair, with no predatory supply overhang. however, both can also be unfair. trenchers know this when a coin is bundled. i think the same is true for proof of work, you always need to ask yourself is this game im playing fair? when i see a project that does it "right", or atleast, what i would do myself if i launched a coin, i get interested.
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study how tokens launched
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