Lockhart’s Locks

I’ve been involved in sports betting for years, but most of that time has been spent behind the scenes rather than posting plays publicly. I’ve put countless hours into studying the markets, understanding line movement, tracking closing line value (CLV), identifying +EV opportunities, and digging into the numbers that actually matter. One thing I’ve learned is that successful sports betting isn’t about picking winners every night. It’s about finding value, managing your bankroll, and making disciplined decisions over the long run. I’ve decided it’s time to start sharing more of that work here. Going forward, expect detailed matchup breakdowns, betting picks, market analysis, and daily recaps. And I’m going to hold myself accountable. Every official play will be tracked publicly. Wins, losses, units, ROI, and closing line value. Nothing selectively deleted or hidden when things don’t go our way. I’m not here to throw out 10 locks a day, post winning tickets, and pretend losing days don’t exist. I want to build a community of people who actually enjoy understanding the numbers and becoming smarter bettors. My goal is simple: earn your follow, earn your trust, and let the results speak for themselves. No overnight promises. No guaranteed winners. Just research, discipline, transparency, and a commitment to improving every day. We’re starting fresh with a publicly documented record. Let’s get to work. Lockhart’s Locks 🔒 Process Over Hype. Results Over Promises.

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Another play Bears +10 with over 39.5 -120 (1 Unit)

🏈 MNF PLAYER PROP — BUY LOW SPOT Zach Charbonnet Over 27.5 Rushing Yards (-113) 📍 Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears I see some potential value buying low on Charbonnet tonight. He’s making his season debut after recovering from a torn ACL, so there’s obviously some uncertainty surrounding his workload. But that’s also why we’re getting a rushing line this low. Let’s not forget, Charbonnet rushed for 730 yards and 12 touchdowns last season while splitting the backfield with Kenneth Walker. Walker is no longer in Seattle, and while Emanuel Wilson has played well in his absence, Charbonnet brings a physical, downhill running style that Seattle has leaned on in the past. At 27.5 yards, we’re not asking for a massive workload. If he gets 8–10 carries, he only needs around 3 yards per attempt to clear this number. The concern is obvious: first game back from a significant injury, and Chicago has been strong against the run. There’s no guarantee Seattle gives him double-digit touches. Still, I think this is an interesting buy-low opportunity on a talented back whose role could grow as he gets comfortable. Lean: Charbonnet Over 27.5 Rushing Yards (-113) #MNF #Seahawks #NFLProps #SportsBetting

🏈 MNF LEAN 1 Unit— Bears +3.5 Not going to lie, I’m pretty torn on this matchup tonight. I lean Chicago +3.5, but this is far from a play I’m pounding the table on. Seattle’s defense is legit, and playing in that environment is never easy. They’ve been excellent at limiting explosive plays and creating pressure, which could make things difficult for Caleb Williams. But there are a few things I like on Chicago’s side. The Bears have been moving the ball well offensively, averaging nearly 391 yards per game. Caleb has shown he can push the ball downfield, and I think Chicago has enough offensive firepower to stay competitive. The other big factor is Seattle being without starting LT Charles Cross. With Montez Sweat returning and Jeffery Simmons joining Chicago’s defensive front, I think the Bears have an opportunity to make Sam Darnold uncomfortable. Pressure has been an issue for Darnold, and a turnover or two could completely change this game. The +3.5 is really what makes this interesting to me. Getting that extra half-point above a field goal matters in a matchup I could easily see coming down to the final possession. My biggest concern? Seattle’s defense controlling the game and Chicago struggling to sustain drives. I can make a legitimate case for both sides, and those are usually the games I prefer to stay away from. But I’m going with my gut for 1 unit 🏈 : Chicago Bears +3.5 #MNF #Bears #Seahawks #NFLPicks #SportsBetting

Recap since TNF #NFL #Capper #Sports #Football let’s keep the momentum tonight, loving the #MNF slate

🏈 NFL PLAY # 2 — 1 UNIT Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-144) | Novig I’m usually not a fan of buying points, especially when it means laying extra juice, but this is one spot where I wanted to get below the key number of 3. After shopping around, Novig at -144 was the best price I could find. Pittsburgh at home against Cleveland is a different animal. The Browns haven’t won a regular-season game in Pittsburgh since 2003. That’s 22 straight home wins for the Steelers in this rivalry. Cleveland also hasn’t swept Pittsburgh in a season since 1988. These teams met earlier this year, with Cleveland escaping 27-24 on a 56-yard field goal in the final seconds. Now Pittsburgh gets them at home, with both teams sitting 5-2 and first place in the AFC North on the line. The matchup favors Pittsburgh defensively as well. The Steelers are allowing just 19.7 PPG, while Cleveland ranks near the bottom of the league offensively at 19 PPG. The Browns have also surrendered 25 sacks through seven games, which could become a major issue against this Pittsburgh front. Another number that stands out: Cleveland has been outscored 58-13 in first quarters this season. They’ve found ways to escape close games, but constantly playing from behind isn’t a formula I trust on the road in Pittsburgh. The market has moved toward Cleveland, and I respect that. But I still like the Steelers in this spot. They’re playing their best football of the season, riding three straight wins, and I have a hard time seeing them get swept by Cleveland. Give me Pittsburgh at home, needing to win by a field goal. Steelers -2.5 (-144) | 1U 🏈 #Steelers #Browns #NFL #SportsBetting

🏈 NFL PLAY # 3 — JETS ML (-117) 1 UNIT | NOVIG Line shopped this one and found the best price at -117 on Novig. Neither team has had much to celebrate this season, but I think this is a good spot for New York at home. The Raiders come in having lost four straight, and their defense has been a major problem. They’re allowing 373.7 yards and 28.1 points per game, while giving up over 143 rushing yards per contest. That’s a favorable matchup for a Jets offense that has started to show some life. Geno Smith also gets a revenge game against the team that traded him this offseason. After throwing 17 interceptions with Vegas last year, he’s turned things around in New York, completing 70% of his passes with 10 TDs and just 2 INTs. And don’t overlook the Jets defense. They’re allowing just 187.7 passing yards per game, ranking 5th in the NFL. That’s a significant advantage against a Raiders offense that’s struggled to establish any consistent running game. New York’s 2-5 record isn’t pretty, but four of those five losses have been decided by one possession. They’ve been more competitive than their record suggests. I expect New York to lean on the ground game, take advantage of a vulnerable Raiders defense, and make Vegas one-dimensional offensively. Not calling the Jets a powerhouse by any means, but I like the matchup, the home field, and the price. Jets ML (-117) — 1 Unit. 🏈 #NFL #Jets #Raiders #Sports

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Doing a parlay for fun - Half Unit Ohio state/USC under 58 With Iowa State +16 +102

Who does everyone like tonight for #UFC

Live betting South Carolina -2.5 as well (-115) (Fanatics)

🏈 NFL WEEK 8 — OFFICIAL PLAY Baltimore Ravens +3.5 | 1 UNIT 🔒 📍 Ravens @ Bills | Sunday, November 1 I’m backing Baltimore getting more than a field goal in Buffalo, and I think there’s a legitimate case for the Ravens winning this game outright. The biggest difference? Lamar Jackson is back. Baltimore went 1-2 without Lamar, but people seem to forget how efficient this offense was before he went down. Through four starts, Jackson completed 70.8% of his passes, averaged over 10 yards per attempt, and threw 6 touchdowns against just 1 interception. The Ravens went 3-1 in those starts. Now he returns against a Buffalo defense that has been anything but impressive. The numbers on Buffalo’s defense are ugly: • Allowing 28.5 points per game, third worst in the NFL. • Surrendered 30+ points in five of six games. • Ranked near the bottom of the league in defensive EPA per play and opponent success rate. That’s a tough defensive profile to trust laying more than a field goal against a healthy-enough Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and Zay Flowers. And don’t overlook the last meeting between these teams. Baltimore put up 40 points in Buffalo, with Henry rushing for 169 yards and Flowers adding 143 receiving yards. The Ravens lost 41-40, but proved they can move the ball against this defense. The matchup is what sells me. Baltimore has the ability to stress Buffalo in multiple ways. Henry forces defenses to respect the downhill run game, while Lamar’s presence creates another threat on every read-option and play-action snap. Buffalo can’t afford to overcommit to either one. The Bills are also without starting safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson due to suspension, adding another concern to an already vulnerable defense. Baltimore is 3-1 on the road this season, and with Lamar returning after two straight losses, this is a team with plenty of urgency. I’m not ignoring Josh Allen or Buffalo coming off a bye. Both are real advantages for the Bills. But I have a hard time trusting this defense to create enough separation against a Ravens offense that can score with anybody when Jackson is operating at his best. My angle is simple: I expect points, I expect both quarterbacks to make plays, and I expect this game to come down to one possession. Give me the Ravens with the hook. 🔒 Ravens +3.5 — 1 UNIT I wouldn’t be surprised if Baltimore wins outright. #NFL #SportsBetting #Ravens #Bills

Off to a great start for the day! Since I started posting 6-1 on CFB & NFL plays.

🏈 CFB PLAY — IOWA -2.5 (-107) I’ll back Iowa at Kinnick in this spot. Wisconsin is coming off an impressive win over USC, but this is a tough matchup for how the Badgers want to play. Wisconsin leans heavily on its ground game, and Iowa ranks 5th nationally against the run, allowing just 82.9 rushing yards per game and only 2 rushing TDs all season. Force Wisconsin into obvious passing situations, and I like Iowa’s chances of controlling this game. Iowa’s coming off an ugly loss to Minnesota, but I expect a much cleaner performance at home. The Hawkeyes have also won four straight against Wisconsin, outscoring them 118-26. Moulton being out hurts, but I trust Iowa’s defense to dictate this one. Iowa -2.5 (-107) 1 Unit Like the Hawkeyes to bounce back at home. #Iowa #Hawkeyes #CFB #SportsBetting

🏈 CFB PLAY — 0.5 UNIT Arizona +3.5 (-108) | Bet365 Texas Tech opened as high as -7.5, and we’re now sitting at -3.5. Both teams come in at 6-1, but I think Arizona is being a little undervalued here. The Wildcats are averaging 459 yards per game and allowing just 16.7 PPG. Fifita has this offense moving, averaging over 310 yards through the air, and I like their chances of putting pressure on Tech’s secondary. Tech has the edge in the trenches and a solid rushing attack, but Arizona has enough offensively to keep this close. The Wildcats have also been the better scoring defense statistically. Not crazy about chasing a four-point move, which is why I’m keeping this at half a unit. But getting the hook above 3 in what I see as a one-possession game is worth a shot. Arizona +3.5 (-108) — 0.5U Wouldn’t surprise me if Zona wins this outright. #CFB #CollegeFootball #Sportsbetting