Dan retweeted
not only am i not worried about the crypto community's ability to handle the upcoming ai/quantum threat, i will venture to say that in the next 2 yrs the world will realize crypto is far better prepared for it than the rest of the internet and finance. we've had a trillion dollar *irreversible* honey pot for a decade, producing a far more battletested system and adversarial security culture than pretty much anywhere else on earth.
Dan retweeted
In 1999 @ESYudkowsky weighed in on Y2K bug, predicting “major catastrophe” (also: the singularity by 2025!) diyhpl.us/~bryan/irc/extropi…
Dan retweeted
Peak "Bitcoin is dead" Google searches:
- November 2022: Bitcoin $15,599
- June 2026: Bitcoin ~$58k
- October 2026: Bitcoin ~$80k
(highest since FTX)
Dying at a higher price every time
Dan retweeted
The older you get the more you realize that politics are psychology: the vast majority of people believe what they do as an extension of their ingrained personalities.
They don’t reason from first principles, or adjust policy based on data: they’re woke lefties or tradcons or AI doomers or accelerationists because the political shoe fits the mental foot. Few ever change sides, and if so only after contact with the results of their politics (and usually not even then).
Because to do so wouldn’t be updating an opinion, but changing their entire self, and nobody intentionally casts themselves into that confusing abyss.
Dan retweeted
this is gold's quantum FUD but it's way worse because you can't software update gold.
Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.
Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.
Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.
Dan retweeted
I could keep calling myself an ancap since, philosophically, I align with the ideals.
Reality doesn't give a shit about philosophy.
That's the harsh truth.
Most issues are essentially a trolley problem. You can claim the so-called "moral high ground" by not participating. Call yourself a better human because you didn't side with the lesser of two evils.
But understand that the world is filled with people who don't share your morals, aren't interested in making the world a better place, and want to take control of the power structure. They will use it against everyone who stands in their way.
These people will blame you for their shortcomings, steal from you, and even murder you and your family if they get the opportunity.
Philosophy: The state shouldn't exist.
Reality: The power structure exists. It has existed for all of human kind. It is not going away. Someone will take control of it.
What are you going to do about it?
Dan retweeted
I don't know what to say on the valuation of frontier models or bottleneck trades, but a productivity boom from AI is absolutely happening its just a matter of how setup the business is for it and how skilled the users are which is likely causing a dispersion in teh data.
Internally at @Blockworks we've hit a genuinely absurd acceleration in productivity in recent months, it's insane.
We live in the future.
Anyone saying otherwise I'm just going to attribute it to a skill issue.
Dan retweeted
Absolutely incredible…
Elon once again showing the Billionaire class how it’s done. Bypassing the state completely, the fraud, the waste of tax dollars, the NGOs, and giving capital directly to American children. They will directly own a piece of American exceptionalism.
Dan retweeted
unfathomable damage done to America. You could have abundant, cheap, emission-free electricity flowing to your home right now if it weren't for these people.
Ralph Nader, 1997: “When we came out against nuclear power in the early '70s, the government had predicted that there would be 1,000 nuclear plants by the year 2000 in the United States, and there's 109 and shrinking, as more and more get shut down.” pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline…
Dan retweeted
Any transfer of wealth that bypasses government is a good thing.
No ability for them to leverage it up as debt, spend it on nonsense or channel it off to their mates.
More billionaires will be happy to transfer their wealth if it goes straight to the kids.
Dan retweeted
France has the highest social spending of any country in the world
A nice old building burns, and so the pearl-clutching begins. Where were these pearl clutchers when austerity was wrecking a generation? Why does one town hall grab their attention but millions of schools, hospitals, and homes dilapidated by neoliberalism are of no importance?
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
France's level of public social spending was third highest in the world at 30.6% of GDP in 2024. Excluding the pandemic, it is slightly down from its 31.9% high in 2014. Total public spending is 57.2%, second highest among large countries not at war and near all-time highs.
ourworldindata.org/grapher/social…
ourworldindata.org/grapher/histor…
Dan retweeted
Ark Invest: "Tesla has scaled to seven cities across three states, and has completed more than 1 million unsupervised driverless miles in ~7 months, ~4x faster than Waymo’s first million. Tesla expects the ramp to accelerate with FSD V15 late this year. Tesla has framed FSD V15 as the gating factor for scaling its robotaxi service."
ARK Invest has just released their new Tesla valuation model, projecting @Tesla could reach a $17.5 trillion valuation by 2031, and upwards of $20.4 trillion in a bull case.
ARK's 2031 Tesla base case: $4,400/share
• ~1M Optimus robots sold externally, generating ~$212B in revenue
• Robotaxi is ~80% of Tesla's enterprise value (down from ~90% in ARK's 2029 model)
• ~8.1M robotaxis deployed, with ~$753B in ride-hail revenue
• Total revenue of ~$1.45T and EBITDA of ~$902B
• Market cap of ~$17.5T
• Tesla's AI infrastructure spend grows from ~$7B to $225B cumulatively
ARK's 2031 Tesla bull case: $5,000/share
• EV revenue (excluding credits): $355B
• Robotaxis: 10M vehicles and $899B in ride-hail revenue
• Energy storage: 2,693 GWh deployed and $193B in revenue
• Optimus: 1.2M robots sold externally and $254B in revenue
• Total revenue: $1.62T
• EBITDA: $1.045T, a 65% margin, with a 72% gross margin
• Market cap: $20.4T
ARK's model does not assume SpaceX and Tesla merge, but they estimate combined SpaceX and Tesla could generate $3.8T in revenue by 2031, with SpaceX contributing ~62%.
Dan retweeted
Aline started working at age 12.
Over the next three decades she built La Barrique, a restaurant in Paris’s 10th arrondissement, from scratch. She cooked, served, and became part of the neighborhood.
On October 17, rioters broke in, destroyed the place, punched her in the face, and set the building on fire.
By morning her restaurant was ashes. 34 years of work, vaporized in a single night.
Obviously, Aline is an immigrant, one who went to work every day, contributed to the economy and served her community.
One of liberalism's fatal flaws is the fear of drawing distinctions. Distinctions between men and women. Distinctions between cultures. Distinctions between countries.
Because apparently noticing any differences means that you are violating your commitment to equality; it means that you are discriminating, and in the hierarchy of evils in the liberal world, there is no worse sin.
This is literally baked in to the French national motto:
Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité
Égalité means equality, specifically social or political equality.
Which means that drawing any distinctions is the same as discrimination.
But this is completely untethered from reality because these distinctions are REAL. And if you craft and enact policies that ignore these distinctions, the chickens (ok since this is France, the Gallic rooster) will come home to roost.
