i like golf and systems @voltcapital | prev @Delphi_Digital

Joined June 2011
the irony of eggs, diesel & pills
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had fun going through all my favorite financial history books and putting this together as a wise man once said, alpha is hidden in the texts that many are too lazy to read
Our report “The House Always Wins: Why Speculation is a Theme of the Decade” is out now. Speculation runs rampant when new tech rearranges what’s possible or the system stops working for most. AI and crypto are now fueling both. Read it for free here. delphi.link/Speculation
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Public Blockchains vs. Wall Street Rails: Where Does $10 Trillion Actually Settle? Tokenization is coming either way. The real question is which rails it settles on. I’ll be joining the panel on this next week at TheBridge by @TheTieIO. Hope to see you there.
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nobody asked the railroad to clear its cost of capital in year three...
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sovereignty is only as durable as your least replaceable counterparty
The issue for international neoclouds is behind the scenes they will constantly be contending with a hostile state dept who would prefer compute dominance continue to accrue to the U.S. Ofc the notion of sovereignty remains a dominant force on the other side but if you’re relying on American hyperscalers to fund the erosion of American dominance you’re going to have a bad time. Watch the Humain project in the Middle East and how it’s treated post the OAI spy incident. Not sure how that will progress but it will tell you a lot about multiple things including wether MBS was onsides in Iran etc
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Rob retweeted
Alex is right here. Don't trust the eval industrial complex. Most public benchmarks are terrible, and top rank there is a negative signal. If you're building products, you need to create your own private evals. The private evals need to deeply correspond to what your users want and the unique knowledge and know-how you have in the domain. You also need to avoid open-source code as much as possible.
META’S HEAD OF AI SLAMS AI BENCHMARKS "it’s some PhD student who made these benchmarks" "you’re kind of outsourcing all of your product thinking to this viral benchmark" "so clearly that’s wrong" I think there is something to this. the whole industry developed so rapidly that there was hardly any time to establish proper benchmarking. companies used what was available, competitors then had to catch up on the same benchmarks, and some of them eventually became industry standards apparently there is quite a lot of randomness and chance in how we are measuring AI progress today
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red hook minetta (black label) rolos lions bar virginias
Best NYC burgers, in order right now: 1. Sip and Guzzle 2. Chez Margaux 3. Au Cheval 4. RH Guest House 5. Minetta Tavern 6. Four Charles 7. 7th Street Burger
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big one. we teamed up with Matera and @solana to bring X9.150 into business payments X9.150 is the first US national standard for QR payments, built by 70+ orgs, and the biggest US banks are lining up behind it we're putting it to work in @altitude bill pay: signed recipient details on the invoice, verified through the X9.150 standard, settled in usdc on solana with the invoice that marks itself paid on the recipient's end catch live demo at money20/20 this week
Find us at Money20/20 USA this week for a demo of Altitude Bill Pay using the new ANSI X9.150 QR payment standard. See signed payment instructions, USDC settlement on Solana, and payment status updates in action. Learn more: altitude.xyz/blog/raising-th…
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great weekend
great weekend
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agents are getting smarter and everybody will have an assistant helping them run their business these agents are becoming the interface for how we use our tools. your assistant should be able to work with your finance stack using the context it already has about your business @altitude MCP is live and this is our first step towards making Altitude the business account your agent loves
Ok @bot, analyze my entire transaction history and figure out how to turn this into a trillion dollar company. Make no mistakes. Say hello to Altitude MCP v1. Connect your AI agent to Altitude and put your transaction data to work. Get started: docs.altitude.xyz/mcp/overvi…
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every time someone tells me robotics is overhyped, i show them this video. still so early.
German farmers work lying down on special vehicles to reduce back strain and improve efficiency.
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each day a new thesis comes out solidifying that we were directionally correct on the sensorification of everything, less so by the 'decentralization' theatre
Replying to @rsarrow
Fringe Untapped Data (FUD) Tailwinds • From general bulk to domain precision • Sensorfication of everything • Decentralized coordination
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subtle misalignments outlive investor mandates
Something missing from the pro-rata debate: Tranched rounds with different valuations. Existing VCs are asked to waive pro-rata at the lower valuation, then offered allocation at a higher price in the “same round.” The bigger the valuation gap, the bigger the ask.
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verified work / compute
WHY DO PROPRIETARY RL ENVIRONMENTS MATTER? My boy Prakash seems unconvinced. TIME TO MAKE MY CASE First, what's one of these fancy 'RL ENVIRONMENTS.' What does that mean? Lots of slop around these atm so lemme help. An RL environment is like a sandbox where an agent can practice f***ing up a task AND score itself on how it did. Think of like a flight simulator for an AI agent. The env hands the model a job, like 'complete this tax return'. The agent takes action via tools, and at the end up grader checks the result and hands back a reward. THIS DERIVES YOUR EVAL METRICS (word evals being thrown around alot these days too). Run that bad boy like a million times and you theoretically should be able to improve your agent. PROPRIETARY ONES ARE ALPHA. Only YOU know how well this agent is doing at this task, and if it is defined / implemented by subject matter experts man oh man you have something special in the AI AGE! It is hard to find SMEs + RL Env experts who combined can build the sandbox necessary to actually test the frontier. Prop rl envs matter to a variety of market participants. Let's start with the one I was originally referencing: @llmh. Long Lake is an AI PE fund/holdco that buys companies (congrats on amex @alextaubman) like property management cos and improves them via ai agents. AI first orgs (AI ROLL UPS) NEED prop RL environments for a variety of reasons: 1) DON'T DESTROY YOUR COMPANY WHILE IMPLEMENTING AI. How do you test your AI agents without destroying your business OTHER than an RL environment? You need a playground / sandbox for your agents to make mistakes in so you can MAKE THEM GOOD AT STUFF. 2) How do you know if your AI agents are ACTUALLY WORKING before you deploy them? Once you have AI agents, you need benchmarks / environments in which to say 'we are ready to go. we think we will see these gains'. 3) How do you convince the frontier labs to improve the models in ways that actually derive utility for you WITHOUT them. You can take your RL env (which always include prop bench marks) to openai and say 'hey sam, wtf, my ai accountant is doing this dumb shit and its on your model to fix it' NOW, that was an AI first org, how about the data companies themselves? @joinHandshake and @GarrettLord take a fascinating approach. 1) PROP RL environments can help you understand the GAPS in the frontier so that you can BUY that data and FILL those gaps. 2) They help you advertise: 'Hey OpenAI, we invented this new RL environment with this benchmark and you guys AREN'T GREAT at that' 3) They help you compete: If you have rl environments your comp doesn't have (@mercor, @micro1_ai, etc) you can find data to win in those environments that your competitors can't. ANYWAY that's why RL environments matter a LOT and will continue to matter a lot. You will see a race in these AI roll ups / AI services companies to hire the best RL env / post training people soon. This is also why you see so many YC companies building these RL environment companies.
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permission to act and verify outcomes remain scarce xitter.cf/rsarrow/status/2087179…
a thielian world view: api-complete global trade where all coordination is aimed at growing the ‘atoms’ pie and bits increasingly become a commodity
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approaching a point where physical labor can scale with capital rather than depend on local supply. cost per effective labor hour becoming the unit of economics (ie, contra).
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