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Hongkong
Joined April 2021
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早上在查上周的ETF数据,发现净流入34亿美元,且机构增量资金不止在流入btc,这是是一个明显的异常值 上周Crypto ETF一周净流入大概34亿美元,BTC流入24亿,BTC以外已经超过10亿美元,差不多占了三成,ETH 6.9亿,SOL 1.88亿,XRP 7560万。 周五这个扩散更明显,BTC流入1.35亿,ETH 8700万,SOL 8670万,几乎追平ETH,XRP还有2260万。 并且这发生两个并不友好的背景下,10年期美债在5.2%左右,加上周五Bitget刚出了3.875亿美元的安全事故。 ETF进来的钱,已经开始从BTC往ETH、SOL这些高Beta资产扩散。更像是BTC先把水带进来,ETH开始承接,SOL再往外扩。 后面BTC继续横着,BTC .D继续往下,ETH/BTC往上,这轮行情就会更刺激了。
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SECZ负责合规地将股票上链,Robinhood和Coinbase抢用户入口,Circle提供链上的美元,Uniswap承接交易和流动性,以太坊等公链提供底层环境。
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「 他拼命为公链刷 Txn 你拼命为协议刷 TVL 我拼命为交易所刷 Volume 我们一起制造泡沫 卖给傻子们 哦不 宝子们 」
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赚钱与不赚钱真正的差距:第二层思维 投资里信息非常重要,但决定赚钱的不是信息本身,而是你如何思考这些信息,判断预期与事实的差距,你赚到的钱就来自预期与事实的差距。 这就是第二层思维,也是霍华德.马克斯《投资最重要的事》的第一章,我认为这是投资中最重要的武器,且大部份人经过练习都可以掌握。让我们潜入。 大部份人看到现象就对现象下判断:看到利好就想买,看到利空就想卖,看到别人冲就跟着冲。 看到利好,比如前不久的美国政府重新开门,大家都认为流动性和情绪会释放,以为币价一定会上涨,买入;看到利空,MSCI指数要移除财库公司、AI泡沫、比特币接连跌破10万、9万关键位置,卖出。 这些判断简单、直接,也最符合直觉,这是第一层次思维。但优秀的投资/投机者,会问得更深: 市场是否已经把预期反应到价格里了?所有人都知道政府重新开门,反应过度还是反应不足?人们的共识是什么?我的预期和大众共识有多大差异? 第二层思维:逻辑背后的逻辑 第一层思维是新闻事实+表面逻辑,第二层是逻辑背后的逻辑。 霍华德.马克斯在书里举的例子,第一层思维说:这是一家好公司,我们买入。第二层思维说:这是一家好公司,但人人都认为它是一好公司,估值和定价都过高,我们卖出。 举两个简单的例子以及我的思考。 第一层思维: 新闻看到MSCI提案要将财库公司移出指数,摩根大通预测如果成功,大量资金将被迫撤出,所以MSTR要跌,所以BTC也会跌,我要赶紧卖。 第二层思维: MSCI和MSTR的背后的前5大机构股东4个高度重叠,资本结构和股东利益来看,移出指数的概率不那么大,暂时观看市场的反应。 再举个例子,3月-4月的特朗普关税引发的市场大跌 第一层思维: 特朗普4月9日全面关税落地了,市场要大跌,我要赶紧卖出 第二层思维: 特朗普全面关税从2月就已经发酵了,市场已经反应很久了,市场已经悲观到了极点,有点过度反应了,市场还有比这更坏的消息吗?如果没有,一个小的好消息便能让市场上涨。从坏消息中寻找好消息,此时买入的收益大于风险。 为什么绝大多数人做不到第二层思维? 因为第一层思维更轻松,人们天生追求简单直接的答案,快速得出结论比深度分析更省脑力。 群体思维有安全感,跟大家一起买、一起卖,你可能亏钱,但看到别人也这样心里平衡了。 二层思维需要耐心、时间和逻辑训练。需要你不断追问:当前价格反映了什么?大多数人忽略了什么? 如何练习第二层思维? 你可以从三个简单的习惯开始 1、每次做判断前问自己以下问题 市场已经反应了这个信息吗?大众的共识是什么?大众共识和预期之间有差距或反转可能性吗? 2、冷静,避免追随情绪 市场越极端,你越应该冷静 3、深入思考是反应过度还是反应不足(参考4月关税事件) 它不是少数天才才能掌握的能力,这是一种习惯。 比别人多问一句为什么,多加练习你也可以获得,推荐这些优秀的二层思维博主 @thecryptoskanda @anymose @CryptoPainter @Michael_Liu93 @LeotheHorseman @dotyyds1234 @tmel0211 @starzq 从他们的文章中可以学到很多的二层思考,甚至三层思考(@thecryptoskanda称之为三级思维) 如果你觉得对你有帮助,点个关注,一起练习第二层思维,做持续复利的事。 最后,结合最近比较热的事实,大家可以用第二层思维练习: 1、12月-1月是西方传统假期月,流动性弱,没有大行情。第二层思维如何想? 2、AI泡沫,市场反应过度还是反应不足? 3、X402协议是昙花一现还是在深蹲蓄力?可参考@tmel0211 的X402系列 4、第一层:预测市场是目前仅剩不多的热点。第二层:预测市场最后会演变成什么形态,估值想像空间有多大? 可参考@starzq最新的预测市场文章 5、近期BTC和ETH的ETF持续流出的情况下,SOL的ETF却持续流入,大盘站稳后会不会率先爆发? 6、CrCL股票已经从高点下跌,现在78附近,稳定币超级叙事下,市场反应过度了吗? 还有哪些热点可以用第二层思维去思考? 大家可以在评论区讨论你是如何思考的,希望大家都能建立自己的二层思维 ,构建持续的复利系统。
在石梅湾海边书店,看到一位漂亮女孩正在看《投资中最重要的事》,我走过去,和她聊了起来。 如果只选一本对投资帮助最大的书,我会选霍华德·马克斯的《投资最重要的事》。 为什么?它改变了我的投资思维。巴菲特甚至读了两遍,卡拉曼称之为“投资圣经”,这源于马克斯20年橡树资本客户备忘录,管理数百亿资金的投资经验。 这本书将系统性地构建你的投资框架:风险管理、价值投资、逆向思维、周期意识和第二层次思考,通过真实案例和心理洞见,帮你避开市场陷阱,实现长期复利。 今天起,我将开始系列推文,按章节分享《投资最重要的事》的关键洞见。 前言核心 成功的投资不是由单一技巧决定的,投资像砌墙,二层思维、风险管理、心理、周期、逆向思考……每一块砖都不可或缺,每一章就是一块砖。 马克斯在前言强调,他花在讨论风险和如何限制风险上的时间,比花在讨论如何实现投资回报上的时间要长得多。 投资的第一要务?不是赚大钱,而是保本金! 避免重大错误比赢更关键。 风险不是波动,而是永久本金损失。 投资第一要务:保住本金,避免永久损失,亏光了,游戏结束,投资不是短期收益追逐,而是长期生存+风险管理。宝藏交易博主王老板@CycleStudies基本每条推文都会提醒止损:小赚,小亏,偶尔大赚,但绝不大亏。 下一章:第二层次思维。#投资最重要的事 #风险管理 #HowardMarks #Bitcoin
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Congrats to @Matr1xOfficial for being the #1 trending blockchain game on @DappRadar ❤️‍🔥 ∙ 850,165 registered users ∙ 935,182 app downloads ∙ 225,270 UAW (#2 among all web3 games, #5 among all dApps) ∙ 309,770 onchain addresses ∙ $110,000,000 USD NFT transaction volume
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Step into the future's most perilous metropolis, Where you're no longer just yourself! As the ambitious mercenary V, enhanced and modified, you're on the hunt for a one-of-a-kind implant promising eternal life. You're in?
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『コミュニティ対抗バトル開催』 OtakuLabs × Bording Bridge合同でMATR1X FIREの大会を開催することが決定いたしました~!!! OtakuLabsからは2チーム参戦予定です(1チーム5人) 希望のかたはぜひご連絡ください🥹✊🏻 🗓2/10(土) 22:00~ MATR1X FIRE 形式:トーナメント モード:コンペティティブ(competitive) 賞金: 優勝チーム 200$FIRE MVP 100$FIRE(優勝チーム以外から選出) Live配信も有り! @Matr1xOfficial @bb_jpdao
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◢◤話題のMatr1x徹底解説◢◤ 🎮:@Matr1xOfficial 🔶@fslweb3 等から2000万㌦調達 🔶CODMを手掛けた元メンバーが開発する5v5モバイルFPSゲーム #Matr1xFIRE ✅誰でも参加可能!賞金プール50万 $MAX のプレイテストイベント1/29-2/12開催 ✅ $FIRE がBybit・Kucoin・BingX上場決定 ⬇️解説へ続く
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We are more than thrilled to be partnering with @Matr1xOfficial for their latest collection KUKU NFT as the first partnered collection trading on MOOAR for 200% MOOAR Box rewards + double XP! Excited for what’s to come, and we will try our best to identify the highly competent teams projects for our users!
#MOOARBox Round 2 🐒 Round 2 is LIVE 🚨 Not only will users be able to claim 3 x @BoredApeYC NFTs; they can now also claim 5 Freshly Minted KUKU NFTs from @Matr1xOfficial🌐- Our first partner collection with 200% MOOAR Box Rewards & double XP 👀 [1/6] #MOOAR #KUKU
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- Matr1x - Fire successfully launched KUKU MINT🔥 Attracted investment from @OKX_Ventures 🏦 @Matr1xOfficial Do you think mobile FPS is a minor and niche market? When asking which genres are suitable for Web3 games, most people look to Web2 for the answer. So people might tell you. “Matr1x is a mobile FPS, isn’t it too minor?” We witnessed a lot of interest in Matr1x today. From Okx Ventures’ fundraising to Kuku’s crazy performance. Besides from the price point, why are people so excited about a game called Matr1x? Through this thread, you can find out why they have the support of Web3 Gamers as well as the support of well-known VCs like okx Ventures. People often assumed that the FPS genre can only be successful if it's a high-quality AAA PC game. Until the mid-2010s, mobile FPS was a minor genre, but now that prejudice has been broken. Now, it's time to brainstorm. 1.Most current FPS users are in their teens or twenties. 2.The penetration rate of high-quality PCs in East Asia is low. 3.They like FPS, but they can't play it on PC. (because of the specs ) The mobile device penetration rate among the younger generation is overwhelmingly high. The performance of mobile devices continues to improve, making it possible to run AAA games. As a result, the average number of monthly users of PUBG Mobile is 120 million. Call of Duty Mobile reaches 50 million players and FREE FIRE MAX reaches 80 million. Naturally, these projects bring in millions of dollars in revenue. Mobile FPS is showing considerable strength in East Asia, and is such a popular genre that PUBG Mobile was selected as an official Esports event at the Hangzhou Asian Games. Call of Duty Mobile is also developed by a Chinese developer. Riot Games is also planning to produce Valorant Mobile, right? Of course, Matr1x is a new IP. Saying it can compete with PUBG and VALORANT and win is over-optimism. Fortunately, Matr1x isn't part of the oversaturated 'battle royale' and 'extraction shooter' genres. The basic framework of the game is reminiscent of CS:GO, but the atmosphere of the game is reminiscent of Valorant. While this nature isn't mainstream in mobile FPSs, it suggests Matr1x has the potential to absorb fandom for both IPs. In Web2 media, including YouTube, Matr1x is not positioning NFT games. They are trying to attract users with complete gameplay videos, and in the future, in addition to the Greater China market, they may venture into untapped markets such as India. Matr1x's potential doesn't end with its mobile FPS potential. This includes new monetization through the GC platform and huge financial incentives for winning in Esports. Imagine a future where you win YATC NFTs by winning in Esports with your friends. YATC’s FP is over 10ETH. Playing games is linked to opportunity costs. In that sense, Matr1x is not targeting the ‘minor’ market. @Matr1xOfficial
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♟️NAGA ✖️ MATR1X FIRE @Matr1xOfficial Community Esports🔫 You will see the following teams:@N9_Club、@ggchronicles_、@aiden_janice、@LDGD_lingjie、@gemsgg_official、@wggdao、@CChallengerio、@GuildEureka、@QIEG_Max 🤩 🎮Community-oriented ecosystems are finding strong ties within the esports community. Get ready for an evening of thrilling esports action and exciting surprises! Follow for live streaming: 🟦:discord.gg/GPsA6CkGs5 #Web3gaming #MATR1XFIRE
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🐾 Ready for KUKU MINT? Mint Schedule: Dec 12, 2023, 14:00 - 22:00 UTC+8 14:00-19:30 for KUKU-List & KUKU-airdrop 20:00-22:00 for LUCKY-List Mint Price: 0.398 ETH Total Mint: 6666 ⚠️ For community winners, confirm your KUKU-WL status here: matr1x.io/kuku?eventName=KUK… 🔔 Ensure to submit your registered email at matr1x.io to retain your minting rights! 🎁 For MATR1X eligible stakers, claim your KUKU-Ores here: matr1x.io/stake/stakeEvent/?…! 🐾🔮 🌌 New KUKU NFT Teaser👇
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🔫NAGA ✖️MATR1X Community League is about to start! 🎁:Matr1 KUKU FCFS WL*5 👭Partner: @Matr1xOfficial & @BSPN_TV & @gemsgg_official ⏰Campaign Duration:Dec. 6th - Dec. 11th Sign up via this form to join us:bit.ly/3uIom9D #MATR1XKUKU #MATR1XFIRE
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先日Crypto.Mで行われた #MATR1XFIRE の大会、動画を有志の方が作ってくれました🔥🔥 勝者にはKUKUの確定WLだったので激アツイベント開催できて光栄でした🥳 このクオリティでBCGなので間違いなく流行ると思います🐸 企画等ありがとうございました!@Ryo52036551 @Matr1xOfficial @matr1xJP
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🚀 Huge congratulations to @Matr1xOfficial on reaching a phenomenal $10M milestone in their A-2 funding round! 🎉 HashKey Capital is excited to be part of this incredible journey shaping the future of Esports and Gaming! #HashKeyportfolionews
🚀BANG BANG BANG! We've hit a monumental $10M in our A-2 funding round, skyrocketing our total to $20M. A rousing welcome to our new allies - @FoliusVentures, @SevenXVentures , @ABCDELabs , @fslweb3 (makers of @stepnofficial & @gasheroofficial) , @initiatecapital, and @JamboTechnology - thrilled to have you onboard! 🙌 To our esteemed veteran investors - Hana Financial Investments, @HashKey_Capital , @ambergroup_io, @SevenXVentures and @7upDAO - immense thanks! You've been the wind beneath our wings. Has Matr1x lived up to your expectations? 😉 💥 Let's celebrate this thrilling milestone! Join our week-long fiesta and grab your chance at 3 KUKU-List & 15 LUCKY-List spots. Be a part of the evolving Esports + Gaming + IP&Co-Creator Economy landscape. 🔗 Funding News: decrypt.co/207166/matr1x-fir… 🎁 GA task: superful.xyz/matr-1-x-kuku-3… KUKU Katcha, speeding up🚀🐾
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Proud to support @Matr1xOfficial from day one! It's also an honor to witness the team growing so fast over the past 2 years and delivering a true high quality web3 mobile game. Keep it up, this is just the beginning!
🚀BANG BANG BANG! We've hit a monumental $10M in our A-2 funding round, skyrocketing our total to $20M. A rousing welcome to our new allies - @FoliusVentures, @SevenXVentures , @ABCDELabs , @fslweb3 (makers of @stepnofficial & @gasheroofficial) , @initiatecapital, and @JamboTechnology - thrilled to have you onboard! 🙌 To our esteemed veteran investors - Hana Financial Investments, @HashKey_Capital , @ambergroup_io, @SevenXVentures and @7upDAO - immense thanks! You've been the wind beneath our wings. Has Matr1x lived up to your expectations? 😉 💥 Let's celebrate this thrilling milestone! Join our week-long fiesta and grab your chance at 3 KUKU-List & 15 LUCKY-List spots. Be a part of the evolving Esports + Gaming + IP&Co-Creator Economy landscape. 🔗 Funding News: decrypt.co/207166/matr1x-fir… 🎁 GA task: superful.xyz/matr-1-x-kuku-3… KUKU Katcha, speeding up🚀🐾
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Super thrilled to see the amazing milestone of @Matr1xOfficial. We are happy to continue supporting #MATR1X in this round as a co-lead investor. Based on the team's extensive experience in the gaming field and the well-made game itself, #MATR1XFIRE has become the most popular #FPS game in Web3. It's predictable that #MATR1X could lead the Web3 gaming industry with the possibilities and imagination spaces brought by e-sports, creator ecosystem, and big game ecosystem.
🚀BANG BANG BANG! We've hit a monumental $10M in our A-2 funding round, skyrocketing our total to $20M. A rousing welcome to our new allies - @FoliusVentures, @SevenXVentures , @ABCDELabs , @fslweb3 (makers of @stepnofficial & @gasheroofficial) , @initiatecapital, and @JamboTechnology - thrilled to have you onboard! 🙌 To our esteemed veteran investors - Hana Financial Investments, @HashKey_Capital , @ambergroup_io, @SevenXVentures and @7upDAO - immense thanks! You've been the wind beneath our wings. Has Matr1x lived up to your expectations? 😉 💥 Let's celebrate this thrilling milestone! Join our week-long fiesta and grab your chance at 3 KUKU-List & 15 LUCKY-List spots. Be a part of the evolving Esports + Gaming + IP&Co-Creator Economy landscape. 🔗 Funding News: decrypt.co/207166/matr1x-fir… 🎁 GA task: superful.xyz/matr-1-x-kuku-3… KUKU Katcha, speeding up🚀🐾
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Had a good two hour call with the @Matr1xOfficial team yesterday about their upcoming FPS shooter. Wow, this one looks good. These guys have a real chance of becoming THE web3 Mobile equivalent of Valorant/ Fortnight / CODM. Have a feeling this one is going to be a king among the FPS coming to the market. Other good AAA looking FPS are @playSHRAPNEL and Off the Grid (@GunzillaGames). Matr1x is mobile ONLY though, which really stands out a great mobile FPS is hard hard hard to do. Also love their aim to include the NFT holders as a core part of the ecosystem and really reward holders as the game ecosystem grows. Going to do a deep dive on this one next few weeks. I think this one is going to be a serious bluechip gaming web3 project. I am calling this a multi B dollar cap project in the making. Their upcoming mint KURU seems to be the main ecosystem NFT and a significant amount of rewards will come down to the holders. Will take a big position myself. teapawt.net/eeelistar/status/17272…
Finally got my hands on @Matr1xOfficial 🔫👀 It was a pleasure meeting you both @madeira_to and @HugeRay124, I learnt a ton from you today!
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