Sergei Chmel

US VS IRAN GAME THEORY IN 7 POINTS: 1. Trump wants out but not on Iranian terms. He needs something he can spin as a win. 2. The Dems can't squeeze him out. Congress never voted a dollar for this war which will continue to be paid from the Pentagon's ordinary budget. 3. The IRGC won't let him off easy. They believe that a man who needs an exit will pay for one. Tehran republished the same 7 demands which Rubio called "outrageous and ridiculous" (end the war, lift the blockade, pay reparations and release frozen funds). 4. Iran can last longer than the forecasts say. The economy is in its worst shape in decades, but they don't need the economy to endure, only the IRGC, which has plenty of support and funding to endure. Also Washington just created a new task force to shut land borders. Why do that if the squeeze was already working so well? 5. But Iran keeps misreading Washington. It thought closing Hormuz would force a quick deal. Then it thought the midterms would. Now it thinks Congress will. Maybe they will wake up at some point. 6. Washington has its own agenda. The day SpaceX launched in June oil fell 5% on hopes of an MoU. Anthropic IPO is due on November 19th + gave the Qataris 2 weeks for diplomacy. Coincidence? 7. Who blinks first? Neither side can accept the other's terms without looking like a poor loser, and neither side thinks they are losing. Both are misreading the other's clock. The correction and reality check can only come through escalation. It's mostly a question of when, not if, given the prevailing positions on both sides. The status quo can remain messy for a while, but a peaceful resolution is totally overestimated right now.

ETH as a hedge against economic instability is quite the gaslighting. I don't know of any so-called monetary system that has changed more than Ethereum's. It is the quintessential example of instability in the cryptocurrency world.

It’s time for Ava Labs to go public. Many people would like upside exposure to the potential of this tech, especially in light of this NYSE announcement, but they’ll never touch the token.

Feels like we're out of short-term narratives why crypto can pump. Sure, there's institutional adoption but they get most of upside without buying our coins. Thus betting on that adoption via tokens is meh: upside seems to be in equity or private markets. Crypto was supposed to solve this! Worse, seems that many crypto tokens are here to pay for institutional partnerships instead of accruing value to them. We're exit liquidity here. HYPE got the NYSE news and now the trade played out. Currently waiting for all licenses and see how much it affects buybacks. AVAX partnership will 'provide core ledger technology for NYSE' but what does that mean for the token? Cosmos ATOM provided core ledger technology for shitloads of companies and they are basically dead. BTC would pump if there was money printing in sight but that won't happen until AI bubble collapses: and that would first rekt crypto as well. (I would've thought differently but AI crashing and rebounded while crypto crashed without rebound is making us all bearish). Meanwhile trenches are rekt beyond believe. Pump, FOMO & grifters are running out of dumb money and backlash on X is getting louder. Mid to long term it's clear that crypto is here to stay. But we'll be tested by 1) democrats getting their vandetta on crypto and 2) interest rates increasing that can't be good for risk assets. The most bullish point about this post is that it sounds so bearish, and usually when one wants to sell is the best time to buy?

Good lord some of you people are delusional. Let me clue you in to a fact that was always true. Crypto was never going to redefine finance, finance was always going to redefine crypto. The institutional finance industry is 400 Trillion dollars wide - a quadrillion if you include notional derivatives - and it basically represents all the wealth in the entire world and the incentives for stability and safety that come with it. You were never going to change that. You only believed you could because you didn't understand it. You thought 'little people' were the victims of the evil big guys in banking like some sort of child's story. The truth is almost exactly the opposite. You see it and you still pretend it's something else. Hack, after hack, after fraud, after mismanaged collapse, after poorly though through innovation, after another bunch of hacks. Billions washed away - none of it by Goldman or JPMorgan. And you still think they are the bad guys. You are only unhappy because your YOLO/lottery ticket style investing now has no better odds in crypto than it does in startups or any of the other BS you children embrace. you aren't ever going to solve anything if you completely misunderstand what it is you're trying to fix.

Why ETH is the store of value for what's coming We are almost certainly heading into a period of high inflation and extreme economic and social volatility. As inflation and risk erode the purchasing power of nation-state money and many other assets, it will matter more than ever to hold assets that keep or grow their value. Gold and BTC are high-powered money and excellent stores of value. ETH goes further. Not debt-based. Like gold and BTC, ETH is not debt-based or credit-based money. Censorship resistant. Like BTC, or gold and silver held physically, ETH transactions on Ethereum L1 can't be censored. That's true for simple payments and for complex smart contract programs like DeFi, and those programs are guaranteed to execute. Cheap to hold. Like BTC, ETH is relatively cheap to hold and store securely. Cheap to use at any scale. Ethereum is cheap and easy to use whether a transaction moves $1 or billions. Any well-formed transaction is guaranteed to execute. Sound, and getting sounder. ETH is disinflationary and becomes ultrasound, meaning deflationary, during periods of high network activity. Broadly useful. ETH has many uses across the Ethereum economy, and that economy will grow by orders of magnitude as finance, and eventually every industry, moves onchain. Global adoption of the Web protocols in the '90s and '00s transformed the world economy. Ethereum is the foundation of Web3, the user-centric, decentralized web. Collateral money. ETH works as collateral, and collateral that grows in value over time is a powerful thing. Home of stablecoins. Ethereum hosts the bulk of stablecoin activity. Stablecoins serve as payment money and as unit-of-account money. Despot-proof. Like BTC, ETH can't be used by a despot to financially exploit or repress citizens. Over time that should have positive geopolitical effects. Programmable. ETH is programmable money. You can attach arbitrary logic to transactions and build an entire economy on smart-contract-based agreements and business processes (see shodai.network). Transparent or private, and auditable either way. Money and financial instruments on Ethereum can be public or private, and in both cases selectively disclosable and auditable. Privacy tools for retail and institutional users include VPNs, mix networks, shielded and privacy pools, Railgun, stealth addresses, Kohaku, and zero-knowledge proofs in many forms, including on L2s and on private permissioned EVM networks linked through bridgeless synchronous composability. Future-proof. By the end of 2027, or partway through 2028 at the latest, ETH will be quantum-safe and AI-safe money. ETH is the base money of an exponentially growing ecosystem that should keep growing for decades. Its monetary premium will keep rising, because retail, corporate, and government users will all need to hold some. Part of today's premium is speculative: Ethereum dominates smart contract blockchains, but it hasn't fully hit its stride or gone mainstream yet. Machine intelligence will supercharge every scientific and technological pursuit and grow global GDP bigger and faster than any of us can imagine. Ethereum L1 and modular Ethereum L2s will undergird most of the high-value agreements, transactions, payment flows, and complex business processes behind the coming hybrid human-machine decentralized economy.

Current world population: 8.3 billion People born from women: 8.3 billion People born from men: 0

IRAN'S REZAEI SAYS ALL US CLAIMS REGARDING CONTINUATION OF NEGOTIATIONS WITH IRAN ARE 'PURE LIES AND FABRICATIONS'

⚠️ People tempted to FOMO into Avax, be careful. Avalanche is not one network but rather a technology (a bit like Hyperledger Besu is not a network but a software) : any company can launch an Avalanche L1 (which is the case here). Sovereign networks pay nearly nothing to the main Avalanche network, the fees are between 1 and 2 AVAX per validator per month. Inside these networks, AVAX isn't needed: they can be tokenless, or based on any made-up token or a stablecoin. Even if a company decided to use AVAX as a gas fee, it wouldn't imply burns (they are likely to pocket the fees to pay for the infrastructure)

The thing that straight men like most about women, is that they're not men. Only Men Can Be Trans Women. It's actually a prerequisite.

How on earth can the NYSE choose Avalanche to settle US stocks traded on the blockchain? Is this actually real, or did someone get paid a fortune to make this partnership happen? 😂

The retards have made a new flag. Male to Male trans. It really can't get any more retarded than this.

I view this as an admission of how bad the prospects for ETH the asset are. Vitalik is right to want Ethereum to be an SoV because it doesn’t make sense as a fee generating asset, the problem is whether or not it’s a good SoV (it’s not)

I am really tired of people not reading a 20 line blog post before running their mouths on twitter. WE ARE INVESTIGATING INTERNALLY, WITH AUDITORS, AND GIVING PEOPLE THE ABILITY TO CONTACT US, SO WE CAN DECIDE HOW TO PROCEED WITH THIS.

charles is actually so fucking based > launch some retarded valueless token called cardano > get lucky and grow massive following during peak CT > followers ponzi token up to deca-billion fdv and allow you to extract billions > rape them so hard and they beg for more rape > even in the worst altcoin bear markets in crypto history holders allow you to extract BILLIONS more > gets bored of printing money and same old rape so you create a new rape coin > ship vaporware again and no usage > tell your community itll be bigger than the first ponzi > max rape again > rape victims call you a genius why in the the literal fuck do we allow this as an industry??

Vitalik is absolutely right that you can’t focus on fees as the product. That’s absolutely meaningless. You need to pick a product, the thing that brings value to people, and do that really well.

please if you are in crypto, and *especially* if you are in Ethereum, read this thread it's a 'nature is healing' moment from Vitalik and is saying so much of what a bunch of us ETH holders have believed for years...even some of the REV maxis from last cycle are having a similar realization now with Zcash P.S.: I think on fundamentals ETH can be a much better SoV than both ZEC and BTC, though I'm in ZEC now as well...the fundamental question is whether smart contracts are a help or hindrance to SoV (and Vitalik himself lays out the dilemma well below) and there is a bunch of theory around this, but I lean that net/net they are a help because it means you potentially never have to exit that hard-money CROPS ecosystem to use your money privately & keep it private...and *use* means more than just 'spending' . . .