Byc retweeted
if you want to understand how AI will progress, study how bots changed chess and poker. Compare and contrast.
the best humans can’t beat top bots at chess. Never.
Poker is different. Bots beat pros over large samples, but a human can still sit down and win a session. That's because poker is a game of incomplete information and chess isn't.
a bot can play close to game theory optimal poker, but the hidden cards and variance give humans a fighting chance, especially in the short run.
Life is poker, not chess. It’s a game of incomplete information and luck. No amount of computing power eliminates that reality. This means the best bot won't be the one that wins every hand. It'll be the one with an edge that compounds over thousands of decisions.
In the short run, anyone can win. In the long run, the edge gets paid.
In chess, ‘human-plus-bot’ teams once beat bots alone, until the engines got too strong and the humans just got in the way. In a world full of hidden information, that partnership lasts longer.
SO, in the future, the winner won't be human or bot. It'll be a human who knows what the bot can't see, when to use judgment and intervene, and when to shut up and let it play.
Byc retweeted
the idea of having 4-5 kids is very intimidating, but the families I know with 4-5 adult children now seem to be having more fun than anyone else I know
Byc retweeted
No, we haven’t liquidated and no, we have no plans to do so.
Selling at important seasonality lows…just as hedge funds have exited…is not how we’ve outperformed the market in 19/22 years.
This decline is about one thing IMO; a resumption of kinetic action with Iran, because it looks likely.
And that means this selling pressure is taking place in advance of it. To that I say “when missiles fly, stocks are a buy”.
We’re primary trend followers and we use drawdowns to add to core positions. We’ll soon be doing that again.
Byc retweeted

Jim Cramer@jimcramerOct 14
🇺🇸
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreAccount-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
No stopping the bears right now...
Byc retweeted
I'm excited to share we're adding $25 million of Bitcoin to our balance sheet.
We believe firmly in the future of crypto and view this as a strategic move for our overall asset diversification.
Byc retweeted
The world's attitude to Bitcoin mining is changing rapidly
For example, I just spent the weekend visiting 3 landfills where that country's government's environmental ministry identified that Bitcoin mining is the best solution to remove their hazardous methane emissions
Byc retweeted

glassnode@glassnodeOct 5
🇨🇭
SwitzerlandConnected via WebAccount-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Whales have stopped sending bitcoin:native to exchanges.
Their summer run of net deposits lasted over three months, twice as long as any other since 2023.
It ended in late August, and the flow has stayed negative since.
Byc retweeted
IMPORTANT POST
Our industry became too focused on protecting downside risk and inadequately focused on maximizing Total Returns to the upside.
In my view, the entire purpose of our structured finance business model must be to maximize Total Returns for common equity shareholders. Our industry needs more amplification. Even at Strive, where we have the highest Amplification Ratio among Digital Credit issuers, when I look at the risk embedded in our capital structure relative to our amplification, I believe we have room to take it up another notch or two.
Building a rocket ship is extraordinarily difficult and requires underwriting and taking real risk. The mission requires not blowing up, but you need an engine powerful enough to reach the moon. Based on Amplification Ratio alone, I view the risk of true issuer failure from over-amplification as very low across our industry today. Amplification Ratio obviously cannot capture every risk, including debt terms, covenants, maturity walls, liquidity constraints, and other structural risks. But controlling for those risks should give issuers significant confidence to take amplification materially higher. That is exactly what we have done at Strive, and I hope others increasingly copy it.
I’ve written extensively about why Amplification Ratio will be the single most important driver of outright and relative Total Returns in a Bitcoin bull market. However, I believe incentives naturally push toward under-amplification, modest Bitcoin outperformance, and the safest possible path. My goal with this post is to light a fire and push our industry to think bigger, focus more aggressively on growth and Total Returns, and push the frontier of what our business models can achieve.
We have a shared mission across the industry to grow Digital Credit from a nascent asset class into a massive global capital market. That requires trusted issuers, deep liquidity, disciplined execution, and investor confidence. That is where we all should work together, but make no mistake about what will crown the fastest horse in a Bitcoin bull market: the engine.
Our mandate at Strive is to build the thing we actually want to own and recruit and retain exceptionally talented people who desire that risk and return opportunity and understand the business model that needs to be built. That mindset drove our execution in building a high Amplification Ratio, helped create strong liquidity, and is also why we are not satisfied with where we are. With Bitcoin under $100,000, our desire is to take Amplification Ratio higher from here.
If the Bitcoin bull thesis is right, amplification will be the most important thing. If the Bitcoin thesis is wrong, a few hundred basis points of cost of capital won’t be the difference between success and failure. The model itself will have failed.
I love capitalism. I love competition. I want more competition for the fastest horse. The next 10–15 years will be the Digital Gold Rush for Bitcoin.
Let’s act like it.
Byc retweeted
$27 was the test, now it's in the rear-view mirror.
One man's exit liquidity was another man's entry.
FOMO arigato
$ASST
Right. Be careful about providing exit liquidity to $ASST PIPE investors. It’s probably not worth getting sliced twice by the 2025 PIPE investors.
Without significant confirmation above $30, $ASST is not a buy for me. And even then, I’d expect much more aggressive ATM issuance. By that point, the institutions are likely out, and there’s far less incentive to protect those relationships.
Byc retweeted
Amount of time needed to afford a Bible for the average person:
1500: 400–600 hours of work
1700: 120–200 hours
1800: 30–60 hours
1900: 7 hours
1950: 2 hours
1980: 1 hour
Today: 30–60 minutes
Byc retweeted
Some elements of the executive comp analysis in this piece did not meet our high standards for research.
We've removed that section while we do additional work. Will share next month.
weekend reading for investors underwriting the AI power trade:
who controls the scarce megawatts, what are they worth, and where is the market mispricing them? @matthew_sigel @Patrick_Bush_VE
vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digit…
Byc retweeted

Michael Saylor@saylorSep 25
🇺🇸
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreAccount-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Strategy is proposing daily dividends on $STRF, $STRC, $STRK, and $STRD, accruing every calendar day, including weekends and holidays, and paid the next business day, with economics unchanged. The proposed changes aim to support price stability, liquidity, and demand.
Byc retweeted

The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetterSep 23
🇺🇸
United StatesConnected via WebAccount-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
The US 10Y Note Yield is now moving in a literal straight-line higher, up to 5.13%.
This is no longer an issue that we have months or years to address.
This is unsustainable.
Byc retweeted
Our latest research paper explores the growing connection between AI and digital assets and explains why broad AI adoption may drive new demand, utility and applications across the digital asset economy. blackrock.com/us/individual/…
Byc retweeted
Bitcoin has surged +31% and $19,500 from $62,300 to $81,800 since Jim Cramer said he is selling all his BTC.
Byc retweeted
VanEck on Metaplanet:
“[W]e rank Metaplanet (MTPLF) as the only company among the top 10 DATs we classify as “Bad” on executive compensation practices and it falls well short of “Acceptable.”
“Its plan pool is 14.7% of FD, with officer exposure at 8.2% while the largest single officer holds 3.8%. These figures each represent a multiple of the next-worst name on every metric.
“Most importantly, the pool did not balloon to its size by committee decision. It got there through an unchanged, floating clause that reset the stock grant to 20% of fully diluted shares every time the company issued stock to buy bitcoin.
“This was due to Metaplanet’s legacy as a former struggling hotel operator that created a reward structure to turn around the company. A retention plan approved by shareholders in 2023 at 46 million shares was built to grow with the share count to ensure officer compensation was not affected by dilution.
“Even after Metaplanet evolved into a DAT, its executive compensation scheme was never re-aligned. As a result, every purchase of bitcoin funded by equity was also a pay raise for its officers as the awards were reset upward each time Metaplanet issued stock.
“By mid-2026 the pool had swelled to 319.5 million potential shares, or about 20% of the company on a fully diluted basis.
“Bowing to immense shareholder pressure, the board has acted twice in the past month but we believe its actions still fall well short of the mark.
“On August 18, 2026 Metaplanet’s board stopped the automatic growth by repealing the evergreen dilution clause but locked the pool at its enlarged size.
“On September 11 the board went further, rolling the conversion ratio back to where it stood before the September 2025 share offering.
“This effectively cut the pool 41% to 188.2 million shares. However, because 82.8 million shares had already been issued to insiders at the old ratio, the potential new shares fell by more than half, to 105.4 million, or roughly 7% of the company.”
$mtplf $mpjpy @GrafYves @RoaringRagnar @thebtcpharaoh @ZynxBTC @orangeyield @GlobalCloser @LawrenceLepard @1914ad @odysseusito @CatoTheElder17 @RichardByworth @AdamBLiv @Anders_
@BenjaminStongMD @SpacsStocks @InHoloWeTrust @z500_tj @DavidFBailey @EneaDenkt @btc_overflow @ThetaMaestro @toothsleuth33 @thisisjake_jp @mattkratter @ActuallyClimber @Compound26p @Bitcoin_Baddie_ @mriemer @metaplanetdays @ShamanSats @adkcurtis @727jht @Dchammerr @dRiskDave @laurashin @bigpicturebtc @thepowerfulHRV @WeaponXBT @financialcnspr @MitchTX21 @UncleDividends @EspritAlberta @JoshMandell6 @most_real_psymd @OrsonVega
vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digit…
Byc retweeted
🚨Metaplanet responds substantively to investor concerns on executive comp; CEO forfeits $123M of controversial Series 10 comp.
>Cuts the controversial Series 10 award by 131M shares, or 41%, including ~79M from Simon Gerovich’s entitlement
>Pushes remaining exercises out to 2029–31
>Scraps the plan to recycle legacy options into a new employee pool.
>Future equity comp will instead be redesigned with a leading global compensation consultant.
They also stripped out the additional compensation generated by share issuance after Sept. 2025, when capital raises became much less accretive to BTC/share.
This is a meaningful concession and a much better alignment of management and shareholders. Credit to them for taking the criticism seriously.
More to follow as we look into it further.
From the Bitcoin pivot through June 2026, common shares increased by roughly 1.13bn. 60%+ of those came after June 2025 after the stock peaked.
In fairness to management, as far as I can tell the Series 10 ratchet was disclosed in the March 2024 annual report just days before the Bitcoin pivot, and again in the March 2025 annual report. The April 2024 Bitcoin announcement did not highlight it, and the quarterly/half-year filings appear to have disclosed the outstanding rights but not the 20% ratchet mechanics. (Happy to be corrected here).
We should also concede the history: Simon was running a tiny distressed microcap when Series 10 was designed in...2022? A huge equity incentive in that situation is not that crazy.
So this was not hidden. An investor doing the work could have found it. The trickiness of dealing with Japanese disclosures, despite my fluency in Japanese, thankfully kept me from owning 3350 in any size after we exited that month.
Management also did a good job growing BTC per share. Had they simply tied comp to that, they still could have made $$$ for the accretion. They did their jobs.
Unfortunately, the windfall produced by the 20% ratchet has become grotesque relative to the company’s current market cap and the stock’s performance since the peak, and leaves management imperfectly aligned with shareholders from here.
Disclosure: I bought a little today. The stock is cheap, I'm more bullish on Bitcoin these days and more willing to take varying exposures. It's not so hard, though perhaps personally a bit expensive, to make things right going forward.


































