belcrozz

France's CAC🇫🇷 is setting itself up for a very difficult 2027. The widening European spreads are concerning, with France leading the way as the France-Germany yield spread recently exploded to over 170 basis points the widest gap seen since the 2011 Eurozone debt crisis. The bond vigilantes are watching closely. France's debts are held mostly by foreign institutions, which is highly concerning; at the first signs of trouble, the highly liquid bond market would likely be targeted and sold off. Nevertheless, even more concerning is the overall pattern and the recent breach of its rising wedge. These inherently bearish patterns, once breached and held, are reliably consequential. 2027 looks set to be interesting, if not earlier, and it seems France is about to lead European markets off the cliff. Yours truly, The Great Martis.✨

GOLD🥇 The critical and most important movements for gold are around its primary trendline. Strengthening bonds and a rising US Dollar Index are traditionally a wet blanket for the precious metal. However, the other and more significant risk for gold is an outright market deleveraging event, where the most liquid assets are sold off first and questions are asked later. I have two scenarios for gold, both of which lead to much higher levels in the year, years ahead, though the risks mentioned above remain a major hurdle. The Consolidation Scenario: If the price can hold the $4,000 level and drift either slightly lower or sideways hugging the primary trendline without breaking decisively below it then it is likely to build a base and head higher over time. The Yield-dollar Driven Downside Scenario: If yields and the dollar index continue to rise, we are likely to see lower lows until a major level of structural support is reached(3400). Only after finding that floor will gold move much higher, likely sometime in 2027 or 2028. In my opinion, there is plenty of time; a solid base needs to be established first. There is absolutely no rush, as market volatility and macro uncertainty are set to pick up significantly in the short term. Nevertheless, over the long term, gold is likely heading toward $10,000, if not higher. Yours truly, The Great Martis💫