Founder | Security Shift Australia National Security awareness & education program for high school students in Australia. BBus (QUT), MIR (UQ), AIIA member.
Brisbane, Queensland
Joined July 2019
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“We need to engender a sense in the community that we are entering into a very different world. The world we are moving into is much more complicated. We are going to have to be prepared to make significant adjustments.”
Peter Varghese AO podcasts.apple.com/au/podcas…
Angus Martin retweeted
Boy, was Samuel Huntington wrong about this prediction regarding Russia and Ukraine: "In 1991 and 1992 many people were alarmed by the possibility of violent conflict between Russia and Ukraine over territory, particularly Crimea, the Black Sea fleet, nuclear weapons and economic issues. If civilization is what counts, however, the likelihood of violence between Ukrainians and Russians should be low. They are two Slavic, pri marily Orthodox peoples who have had close relationships with each other for centuries. As of early 1993, despite all the reasons for conflict, the leaders of the two countries were effectively negotiating and defusing the issues between the two countries. While there has been serious fighting between Muslims and Christians elsewhere in the former Soviet Union and much tension and some fighting between Western and Orthodox Christians in the Baltic states, there has been virtually no violence between Russians and Ukrainian." jstor.org/stable/20045621?se…
This is very good.
“Whoever produces and controls frontier models acquires global leverage over innovation, production, science, culture, and, ultimately, advanced thought.”
Read @nfergus, Lisa Klaassen, and @ericschmidt on the imperial nature of AI:
foreignaffairs.com/china/emp…
Angus Martin retweeted
Pretty hard to find a better example of a tariff that is causing more harm to US industry (and consumers) for less strategic or economic gain than the steep tariff on Canadian aluminum
1/2
Angus Martin retweeted
Since 2022, 72% of the world’s AI compute has ended up in the US and about 10% in China.
And the US share keeps growing. It acquired around 60% of new compute each year from 2022 to 2024, then 72% in 2025, and 78% in the first half of 2026.
This data comes from our interactive AI Chip Imports explorer, which estimates and visualizes national compute shares using customs records.
It’s the latest piece in our project to map the AI chip supply chain, which also provides data on the components used to manufacture chips, sales volumes, the data centers that house chips, and the companies that own and use them.
More on this new data and what we’ve learned below.
ALT Stacked area chart: share of cumulative new AI compute (H100e) by country, 2023 Q3 to 2026 Q2. The US rises to about 72%, China about 10%, followed by the EU, Malaysia, Japan, India and others.
Very interesting discussion. John argues 🇦🇺 economic relations with 🇨🇳 & rest of Asia are not incompatible with maintaining its deep security & cultural ties with 🇺🇸. 🇦🇺 should focus on opportunities emerging across Asia, particularly Indonesia 🇮🇩.
What if Washington asked Australia why it sells iron ore to China? Economist John Edwards tells @SamRoggeveen Australia would refuse to choose, because its economic ties with China matter far more than those with the US. 👉Watch the podcast here: youtu.be/3bgsF4jC394
Link to the view that Australia should build large AI training & inference data center capacity (in remote locations). abc.net.au/news/2026-10-27/a…
Another great interview by Joe Walker.
Janet Egan @janet_e_egan explains the links between a rapid AI build out in Australia and our national (incl economic) security.
NB: there is a whole lot of “ummm thinking time” dead air in this episode - not a bad thing!
The geostrategic case for compute in Australia:
Janet Egan (@janet_e_egan) has been doing a bunch of quiet work trying to nudge Australian policymakers to think more seriously about AI.
She works at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, but was back home in Australia over the past month. Was lucky to catch her on the day before she returned to the US.
We pressure-test various strategic arguments for a large-scale compute industry and talk about the steps we would need to take to enable it.
Watch below, or wherever you get your podcasts!
Timestamps:
(0:00:00) – Introduction
(0:00:33) – Lessons from the AdBlue crisis
(0:09:02) – How seriously do Australian policymakers take AI?
(0:12:48) – How much does frontier access matter?
(0:28:55) – Compute-for-access
(0:43:08) – What does sufficient leverage look like?
(0:53:00) – What does AI sovereignty actually mean?
(1:03:15) – Taiwan, undersea cables and data centres as military targets
(1:10:30) – Could compute buy Australia influence over AI safety?
(1:15:19) – Verifying international AI agreements
(1:24:00) – Copyright: the red line?
(1:37:49) – The maximally ambitious path
Angus Martin retweeted
From Taiwan to the broader Indo-Pacific, Beijing's ambitions extend well beyond economic growth. My assessment of China's strategic objectives at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics.
Great report by @danwwang on TSMC’s Arizona factories & experience of Taiwanese families who have moved there.
“What 🇺🇸 really lacks is skill: the practice of building semiconductors, cars…& other industries in which U.S. companies used to lead the world.” #industrialpolicy
I went to Phoenix to spend time with the Taiwanese community. TSMC will invest $265 billion and send thousands of engineers and their families, which marvel at their new lives in the Sunbelt
My first feature as a contributing writer to the New York Times:
nytimes.com/2026/10/23/opini…
This quote also:
“It’s also possible Trump will decline to send American troops to defend Taiwan if he believes that its core technologies are already on American soil.”
Or any other future US President, it should be noted.
#Geopolitics #IPE
Sad & disappointed (& a bit surprised) to hear this. Hopefully another @abcnews program dedicated to covering business is in the works bc this will leave a big gap. It was generally very strong reporting with good access to the often opaque world of large companies & institutions
Governor-General of Australia, Sam Mostyn.
To paraphrase...
A healthy democracy does not eliminate disagreement; it establishes the conditions under which disagreement remains productive rather than destructive and/or corrosive to social cohesion.
abc.net.au/listen/programs/t…
Angus Martin retweeted
My new book - out today in Britain. All good bookstores etc…Also out in translation in Italy, Germany and the Netherlands this week
Share on abc.net.au/news/programs/the… via @ABCaustralia
Director-General of Security: Statement on Helen Haines | ASIO asio.gov.au/resources/speech…
“There's not enough tax to pay for the spending & the shortfall…must be funded by debt.
There are 2 levers you can pull. One is raising taxes, which no-one will ever support. The other is cutting spending, which no-one will ever support.”
Ian Verrender abc.net.au/news/2026-10-20/r…
A useful paper:
"...exclusionary dynamics [worsened & enabled by the weakening of liberal institutions] intensify nationalist geopolitics by fueling conflict both within and between states."
Link with @FukuyamaFrancis thinking re identity and thymos.
“The Return of Nationalist Geopolitics: Liberal Backsliding and Armed Conflict,” by Lars-Erik Cederman, Paola Galano Toro, @lucgirardin, @andijot, Julian Wucherpfennig
doi.org/10.1162/ISEC.a.416
Andrew Shearer, then head of 🇦🇺 ONI, to US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, just prior to 🇷🇺 2022 full invasion of 🇺🇦:
“I can’t believe we’re having this conversation in the 21st century.”
An important reminder of where we’re at by @gideonrachman giftarticle.ft.com/giftartic…
