LovetheSonandthesun

Reviewing Texas registrants, with each voter’s 2026 ballot status through Oct. 27, turnout history, and modeled party. The early electorate is R+2 on modeled party. The full 2022 electorate was R+12; 2024 was R+9. White voters are 55% of early voters, down from 62% in 2022. Democrats have banked more of their expected vote. Lean Democrats have reached 83% of their 2022 turnout, Strong Democrats 73%. Strong Republicans are at 62%, Lean Republicans 57%. Under 30 voters have already matched their entire 2022 turnout. But the pool still available is R+17 to R+20 on modeled party and 52 to 62% White depending on who turns out. Republicans have a substantial reserve, and the later days of early voting have run more Republican than the first. Project the remainder using either the 2022 or 2024 turnout pattern and the final electorate lands at R+8 to R+10. That holds whether total turnout is 8.7 million or 10.6 million. The shape of this electorate is largely set. Scored on its 2024 presidential vote, that electorate backed Trump by 12 to 14 points. Composition alone moves the margin a point or two toward Democrats, not ten. So how does that square with public polls showing Talarico ahead by about 2 and Abbott by 3 or 4? Only through switching. If 2024 Trump voters hold at 89% for Paxton, the going consensus, this electorate produces Paxton +3. A Talarico lead needs 13 to 15 points of net movement among 2024 Trump voters, or a final electorate several points bluer than its 2024 vote suggests. Abbott leading in the same polls tells you the movement is specific to Paxton: same voters, different candidate, five points apart. Early vote trackers tell us who is showing up. They cannot tell us how those voters are choosing. That is what we have been measuring this week, among early voters and among the voters still to come.

CRACKS FORMING: James Talerico's Dallas firewall — the massive vote margin he needs to offset GOP dominance in rural Texas — is showing real signs of weakness heading into Tuesday's Senate vote against Ken Paxton. On-the-ground conversations with Dallas voters reveal an enthusiasm gap that should alarm the Talerico campaign. Lifelong Democrats are lukewarm at best, with one immigration attorney and longtime party voter saying flatly, "This isn't like when Beto ran." Even more troubling for Talerico: early voting in the Black community, long the bedrock of Texas Democratic politics, appears to be lagging. A GOP consultant told Fox News Digital Black turnout "looks like it is down" — a potentially devastating signal in a race where Talerico needs to rack up major numbers in Big D. Moderate suburban voters are also peeling away. One mom who previously voted for Democrats told Fox News Digital she can't back Talerico: "He just says so much crazy stuff, it's too much for Texas." If Talerico can't deliver in Dallas, Paxton may have enough red-county votes to finish the job and help hold the Senate for Republicans. Full story here foxnews.com/opinion/david-ma…