prediction market liquidity arc @skywalktokens | never stop dreaming

San Francisco, USA
Joined April 2009
Insane turn of events. Yet another big shocker. I guess the research I got was correct after all. PMs got the first round right but totally whiffed the second one
The Brazilian elections are a big shocker. Polling consistently had Bolsonaro behind and a prediction market researcher made a strong argument a few weeks ago to me that Lula was holding his own and that PMs were overly optimistic on Bolsonaro. Well, the market turns out to be more efficient than we thought (yet again). A funny response I did get when speaking to a few Brazilian friends was that they simultaneously said that the polls couldn't be trusted but agreed that the election outcome was a shocker. As I understand it, Brazil collectively leans right at this point but the right wing was more fragmented than the left was. The best chance for Lula this time around was to gain a majority to prevent a run-off, which he's never done before. The right will consolidate behind Bolsonaro which is why he's now the overwhelming favorite.
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Congrats on the launch @Natan_benish! Would appreciate a shout out / acknowledgement of @lev7finance since that was the first implementation of this new primitive (in generalized form) and was demoed to you in person when we met for 2 hours back in August
Introducing actively managed baskets by LongX A new way for communities to own the economics and manage any combination of leveraged long and short positions, wrapped into a spot ERC20 token you can trade in 1 click. LongX Baskets are a completely new primitive, providing full programmability that is not available in leveraged ETFs or spot indices for example. We are starting with the AI Nexus basket. Long AI leaders (NVDA, AI, OPENAI and more). Hedged with a short on QQQ (the general tech sector). AI Nexus pairing mode is live on LONG as well. We are looking to roll out a community management next week where AI holders can decide on the basket composition and more. Based on the pilot, we plan to roll out basket for additional top pairs on LONG, subject to transparent criteria we'll publish. Deep dive soon. For those who don’t want to wait, the lite paper is linked in the tweet below. LONG.
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Hey @pmarca do you still have some Netscape merch lying around?
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There's quite a few well known holders/custodians that will hold assets in an address that hasn't transacted/revealed a pubKey yet. I always felt it was overkill but I guess this is the age of paranoia we are entering. Presumably if a blackhat attack happens, a major account would be drained and exchanges (with off-ramps) would probably stop trading. You either survive with some sort of pre-attack snapshot or you hold tokens that become instantly worthless. Honestly I think finding a way to register your wallet with a multitude of other hardened schemes (PQ or otherwise) ahead of the attack and subsequent recovery is a more meaningful move than pubKey paranoia.
Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for "bunker mode". My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash. Holders, starting with large and sophisticated ones, should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction. And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address (possibly generated from the same seed phrase). Don't rush. While I believe there is cause for action a rushed migration would do more harm than good. Don't panic either. Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple, preventative step which does not require new cryptography or new wallets. IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster). Recent days have been humbling for human mathematical intuition. Long-held, unquestioned hypotheses have fallen. This includes the n log(n) bound for integer multiplication and the 3SUM conjecture. In hindsight, May's unexpected disproof of the Erdős unit distance conjecture was our warning shot. Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us. They say there are weeks where decades happen. We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen. Could our magic 64-byte ECDSA signatures be too good to be true? Was it just security through obscurity all this time? Elliptic curves feel especially vulnerable to superintelligence. Curves carry rich structure, with room for fancy tricks like Schoof, Frobenius, pairings. (By contrast, hashes are designed to minimise algebraic structure.) Separately, as Ewin Tang can attest, an efficient quantum algorithm sometimes foreshadows an efficient classical one. We should be open to the possibility of a classical counterpart to Shor that breaks elliptic curves and RSA at once. Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results. Backroom interventionism is my base case. I urge large, sophisticated actors to lead by example. Project11's "risq list" (bitcoin-risq-list.projecteleven[.]com) is a great tracker of exposed BTC pubkeys. Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether have an opportunity to harden their cold storage. Next month I'll address institutions in London in a live Q&A (forum.ethereuminstitutional[.]org/london-2026). Again, please do not rush. Wallets holding under 50 BTC enjoy partial cover from "Satoshi's shield", i.e. his 20K exposed addresses that hold 50 BTC each. Load-bearing signers like oracles and L2 security councils should consider rotating ECDSA pubkeys with every signed message and/or multi-signing with a hash-based schemes like SPHINCS. Exiting bunker mode safely will require post-AI cryptography. My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies. A single battle-tested hash (e.g. from the SHA or BLAKE families) yields plausible post-AI security. The Ethereum roadmap on strawmap[.]org fully embraces hash-based cryptography with end-to-end formal verification as a response to the quantum threat. Those timelines must now be revisited and accelerated in light of mathematical superintelligence. I'll be pushing for maximum defensive acceleration.
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Whales/custodians are right to be paranoid as they are the low-hanging fruit. For the rest of us small fish, registering for a speedy recovery is probably the better move.
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Interesting dynamic emerging from the largest crypto exchanges in the US around @HyperliquidX: @coinbase cut a deal to ensure that @USDC is the primary asset that is quoted in HL and CB becomes the official treasury deployer. 90% of all interest income flows back to HL. @circle didn’t need to agree to this deal since CB keeps 100% of all “on-platform” interest income per the terms of their JV. One could argue this was a major revenue loss event for Circle but they do retain brand prestige as part of this. HL perps are also available thru the CB wallet app. @Payward which is the parent company of @krakenfx has announced an intention to offer HL perps to US users via their own HIP-3 market. Interestingly, unlike CB they don’t currently have their own regulated perps product live in the US (it’s only available internationally).
The team’s OTC sale is likely to resolve today. While the identity of the buyer is a mystery, I expect a reveal via the creation of their own validator (3.75M is just enough to join the active set). The institution with the most incentive to do this is Payward (Kraken), IMO.
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It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for 'em. Just in case it’s a pre-verified Apple Pay source through something like Coinbase it still means KYC is required. Just happens that some customers have completed it already.
this week @sharexyz will be the first to integrate the best fully embedded fiat onramp in the space :) Apple Pay in 150+ countries, no KYC, $10K per day
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Hopefully this is a bug because how would this not be overcooked to hell
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Time and again this industry continues to fund the most morally bankrupt people
the mfer rug king luca
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Cosmos was early in so many ways: - actual cross-chain interoperability - toxic political infighting - endless security breaches - tombstoning of chains since most of them were useless ⬅️ we are here
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The Brazilian elections are a big shocker. Polling consistently had Bolsonaro behind and a prediction market researcher made a strong argument a few weeks ago to me that Lula was holding his own and that PMs were overly optimistic on Bolsonaro. Well, the market turns out to be more efficient than we thought (yet again). A funny response I did get when speaking to a few Brazilian friends was that they simultaneously said that the polls couldn't be trusted but agreed that the election outcome was a shocker. As I understand it, Brazil collectively leans right at this point but the right wing was more fragmented than the left was. The best chance for Lula this time around was to gain a majority to prevent a run-off, which he's never done before. The right will consolidate behind Bolsonaro which is why he's now the overwhelming favorite.
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Genghis Khan conquering new lands (colorized) feat grandmaster and US chess champion @SamShankland
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Great news: bridging will be a first-class citizen in the upcoming @polymarket Protocol v2. Quick reminder that Skywalk was the first to establish the Prediction Token Standard and was the first to bridge Polymarket positions across 4 blockchains last year.
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Congrats on the launch! Here's how my predictions back in July panned out so far according to Grok: xitter.cf/setofsevens/status/207…
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p(doom) is basically a rolling mention market. It hasn’t entered the wider lexicon (and I honestly hope it never does) but those in the know can express the exact conditions in their sleep
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Pro tip: if you have a lawyer friend, talk your fucking head off and squeeze every last bit of free alpha out of them. Also buy them some nice drinks for the trouble
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I used to pay $1300/hour for our lawyers at Cooley and I was such a chatterbox that my cofounder, who spoke a mile a minute, demanded that I route all questions thru him
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I believe makes @CoinbaseMarkets the first DCO built for 24/7 settlement. Congrats! Here's a quick comparison:
The CFTC has approved the launch of Coinbase Clearing LLC, our own USDC-native clearinghouse. Built for 24/7 settlement with USDC collateral, Coinbase Clearing completes our full stack of regulated derivatives infrastructure.
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Governance rugs come in all shapes and sizes. On one extreme you have the recent Neutron governance attack from an alleged outsider and on the other end you have whatever this is coming from inside the house
Compound Foundation raiding the DAO treasury? 🧐 comp.xyz/t/misappropriation-…
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