Military and technology analyst. Fellow @BGCCIH. PhD from @GWtweets. Previously @BelferCenter, @UofT. Press inquiries: send a DM and include your email
Toronto
Joined August 2013
- Tweets12.6K
- Following730
- Followers7.2K
- Likes28.4K
Pinned Tweet
Although I do not plan to delete this account or my threads and posts, I do not anticipate doing much posting or writing here going forward. I will be writing on my website; I am working on finalizing some things. spasconsulting.com/
Some appear to be misunderstanding what the maps in the quoted post were depicting. I can spend many hours explaining what is and is not public knowledge about China's air defence capabilities. China deploys an extremely large number of radars as part of its air defence network, but its medium-range and long-range surface-to-air missile systems are finite in number and are not uniformly deployed across Chinese territory. This map is only intended to illustrate what exists. The relevant parties will have much better information than what I am sharing through this image.
Shahryar Pasandideh retweeted
A work in progress: a map of China's air defence capabilities depicting PLAAF medium-range and long-range surface-to-air missile batteries. Multiple battalions may be present at a given site, with icons stacked on top of one another.
Shahryar Pasandideh retweeted
A map depicting the notional coverage of Germany's three Arrow-3 ballistic missile defence systems. The map reflects a series of assumptions about radar coverage and is subject to the standard caveats about depictions of radar and air defence coverage. Details and a higher-resolution image can be found on my site. 1/2
Shahryar Pasandideh retweeted
A map depicting the notional coverage of Japan's air and ballistic missile defences. The map reflects a series of assumptions about radar coverage and is subject to the standard caveats about depictions of radar and air defence coverage. Details and a higher-resolution image, as well as maps that separately depict coverage against ballistic missiles and atmospheric targets, respectively, can be found on my site. 1/2
Shahryar Pasandideh retweeted
A map depicting the notional coverage of several hypothetical ballistic missile defence systems deployed in Australia. The map reflects a series of assumptions about radar coverage and is subject to the standard caveats about depictions of radar and air defence coverage. Details and a higher-resolution image can be found on my site. 1/2
A map depicting the notional coverage of Canada's forthcoming Arctic over-the-horizon backscatter (OTH-B) radar, which will be constructed at sites in the Kawartha Lakes, Ontario, area. The map reflects a series of assumptions about radar coverage and is subject to the standard caveats about depictions of radar and air defence coverage. Details and a higher-resolution image, as well as a map that also incorporates the coverage offered by the future American OTH-B site in Oregon, can be found on my site. 1/2
Details and a higher-resolution image can be found here: spasconsulting.com/p/maps-ne…
A new map with additional info and links:
Another map depicting the notional coverage offered by Canada's forthcoming Arctic over-the-horizon backscatter (OTH-B) radar, which will be constructed at sites in the Kawartha Lakes, Ontario, area. See the quoted posts for the caveats about this depiction of the notional coverage that will be provided by this OTH-B radar. Note that there are enduring uncertainties in the public domain as to the particulars of this OTH-B radar, including the orientation of this bistatic radar's antennas for the first phase of this project. "Full capability" is not anticipated to be in place before 2043. See the following posts in this thread for more information. 1/
Shahryar Pasandideh retweeted
A map depicting the notional coverage of Taiwan's air and ballistic missile defences. The map reflects a series of assumptions about radar coverage and is subject to the standard caveats about depictions of radar and air defence coverage. Details and a higher-resolution image can be found on my site. 1/2
Another map depicting the notional coverage offered by Canada's forthcoming Arctic over-the-horizon backscatter (OTH-B) radar, which will be constructed at sites in the Kawartha Lakes, Ontario, area. See the quoted posts for the caveats about this depiction of the notional coverage that will be provided by this OTH-B radar. Note that there are enduring uncertainties in the public domain as to the particulars of this OTH-B radar, including the orientation of this bistatic radar's antennas for the first phase of this project. "Full capability" is not anticipated to be in place before 2043. See the following posts in this thread for more information. 1/
A map depicting the notional coverage of Canada's forthcoming Arctic over-the-horizon backscatter (OTH-B) radar, which will be constructed at sites in the Kawartha Lakes, Ontario, area. The map reflects a series of assumptions about radar coverage and is subject to the standard caveats about depictions of radar and air defence coverage. Details and a higher-resolution image, as well as a map that also incorporates the coverage offered by the future American OTH-B site in Oregon, can be found on my site. 1/2
The United States is planning to build its own OTH-B radar site in Oregon. Given that NORAD is a bilateral framework, these efforts are interrelated and mutually supporting in furtherance of the collective defence of North America. xitter.cf/shahpas/status/1914544…
I have previously offered a fairly detailed explanation of how OTH-B radars work in the following thread: xitter.cf/shahpas/status/1908940…
Two maps that illustrate how little the construction of a 29B6 Container over-the-horizon backscatter (OTH-B) radar in Kaliningrad changes things in terms of Russia's ability to monitor aircraft movements west of Russia's primary western frontier. The maps depict the notional coverage of two 29B6 OTH-B radars configured for 360- degree coverage over 800-3000 km and are intended to draw attention to the blind spot resulting from the skip zone. The existing 29B6 radar in Mordovia already offered extensive coverage of most of Europe as well as Ukraine.
A work in progress: a map of China's air defence capabilities depicting PLAAF medium-range and long-range surface-to-air missile batteries. Multiple battalions may be present at a given site, with icons stacked on top of one another.
A map depicting the notional coverage of Japan's air and ballistic missile defences. The map reflects a series of assumptions about radar coverage and is subject to the standard caveats about depictions of radar and air defence coverage. Details and a higher-resolution image, as well as maps that separately depict coverage against ballistic missiles and atmospheric targets, respectively, can be found on my site. 1/2
Details and a higher-resolution image can be found here:
spasconsulting.com/p/map-not…
Some maps depicting the notional coverage offered by American and Gulf Arab AN/TPY-2 radars across the Middle East as of ~28 February 2026. I am sharing simplified two-dimensional depictions because the three-dimensional counterparts to these maps are quite awkward. 1/
For more on the broader dynamic at hand, see: xitter.cf/shahpas/status/2112405…
I've made ~10-20 maps of actual and notional BMD coverage over the past day. The following map gives an idea of what the ballistic missile early warning setup in the region looked like, and that is without accounting for radars in UAE, Qatar, and Saudi.
xitter.cf/shahpas/status/2112364…
