26 predictions for 2026: 1. Gemini will be the most used AI model because it’s baked into Google and people will use whatever shows up by default. 2. Substack will become the YouTube of writing, where a small group of writers get most of the attention. 3. LinkedIn will be full of AI slop, which will make real human writing way easier to spot. 4. Hyper-local creators will become mini celebrities in their cities and drive real business locally. 5. Facebook’s organic reach will be wildly underpriced compared to every other social platform. 6. Meta’s AI glasses will start going mainstream because they don’t ask people to change how they live. Even my wife has one. 7. YouTube will be the number one place for views, brand building, and growing a business. 8. Amazon will keep winning retail because people say they want Etsy but click Amazon when it’s time to buy. 9. Zillow will fight the entire real estate industry to assert its dominance and own more of the home buying and selling process. 10. Email will beat paid social ads for most small and mid-size businesses. 11. Direct mail will grow again as a marketing channel because email inboxes are full and physical mailboxes are mostly empty. 12. PDFs will stop working as lead magnets and get replaced by free tools and simple apps. 13. Investors will stop caring about boring 15-slide pitch decks and pay more attention to live demos and real working products. 14. Small niche creators will build tools and apps because they have distribution, but most will never get SaaS-level valuations. 15. AI that brings in customers and revenue will beat AI that saves time and costs for small and medium businesses. 16, Platforms like Coinbase, DraftKings, FanDuel, and prediction markets will grow in 2026 even as most users lose money. 17. More people will put new money into index funds than into buying homes in 2026. 18. Bitcoin will be owned by fewer people, but those people will own a lot more of it. 19. Private credit will be the biggest winner among boring asset classes and will attract retail investors who have never had access before. 20. When SpaceX goes public, it will make people remember why they liked investing in the first place. 21. Tesla will keep dominating while Elon Musk becomes so rich that even people who hate him will have to admit he won. 22. Avengers: Doomsday and The Odyssey will carry the box office and make the business of Hollywood look healthier than it really is. 23. Interest rates will come down a bit, but borrowing money will still feel expensive. 24. Lawyers will stay busy cleaning up dumb mistakes AI puts into contracts. 25. People will watch phone-style content on their TVs while using their phones as a second screen. 26. Comedy creators will dominate watch time because they give people a quick break from being online and overwhelmed all day.

A hill I will die on: focus is more important than intelligence. I’ve watched the smartest people burn their businesses to the ground chasing shiny objects. And I've watched people who have no idea what they're doing win by doing one thing for ten years.

Something I realized after building two billion-dollar businesses: the businesses that sold for the most were the ones I was most prepared to keep forever. Buyers don't pay the top price for a business you're desperate to leave. They pay it for one you never need to sell.

Owning your time is one of the most generous things you can do because if you don’t protect your time, you can’t produce. If you can’t produce, you can’t change lives. Protect your time like it’s generosity, not greed.

How to spot a successful person: Watch their speed of execution. They decide faster. They adjust faster. They act faster. Progress loves movement. Perfection loves delay.

How to get ahead of 99% of people: make their boredom your normal. When reading is entertainment, writing is clarity, and working out is fun, your brain has been rewired to become unstoppable.