lucky

Joined April 2011
my dream house
This is wild... There’s a farmhouse on top of a building in the West Village in NYC, and it just listed for $10.5 million. Porch. Garden beds. A vegetable patch. City skyline instead of a backyard. The penthouse at 719 Greenwich Street.
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simixn retweeted
Replying to @nigel_b_golf
Have to take away the trophies as those were the spoils of the cheating. Anything else is not a punishment but a temporary setback.
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i must be the only one who finds this cringe final boss of performative guys
Everything Matthew McConaughey does has insane aura exhibit #5,689: watching the US Open.
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We modeled every dollar of $googl cloud capex as a standalone investment. The returns math isn't the problem. The commitment math might be. Here's my walk-through: THE RAMP Quarterly capex: $6.3B (Q1-23) → $44.9B (Q2-26). That's 7.1x in 13 quarters. Two distinct phases — a first step in Q4-23, then a near-vertical move from Q1-25 (+215% in six quarters, no plateau). Capex is now 29.7% of revenue. Revenue per $1 of capex has collapsed from 10.5x to 3.4x — below the 2018 trough. I think that number alone explains a lot of the market's discomfort. THE BREAKEVEN Given a 6-year asset life, 2-quarter deployment lag, 17% cash tax and 10% WACC, a dollar of capex needs to produce just $0.18 of annual revenue to earn its cost of capital. Observed: $0.54. So that's ~3x cover. On margin, breakeven is 25.9%. Google's incremental cloud operating margin is 53.7%. THE RETURN ~$0.18 of NPV per $1 of capex over the asset's 6.5-year life. Discounted breakeven at 5.5 years. That's a 15.1% IRR per $1 of capex. Steady-state ROIC of 23.5% on net invested capital against a 10% cost of capital — a 13.5-point spread. For a business with Google's moat and durability, that isn't marginal. That's an excellent use of shareholder capital. WHAT IT ACTUALLY DOES TO EPS One year's capex cohort ($132B, based on LTM capex) generates ~$15.6B of incremental annual NOPAT at full ramp — ~12.7% of current NOPAT, or ~$1.27/share. But it lands 2.5 years after the cash goes out, and it's a one-time step-up in the level of earnings, not an addition to the growth rate. In steady state with flat capex, retiring cohorts offset new ones and the growth contribution goes to zero even at 23.5% ROIC. Sustained EPS growth requires capex to keep rising. Which it is.   THE PART THAT SURPRISED ME The standard bear case is that hyperscaler margins are manufactured through depreciation. Google did extend server lives 3→4 years in 2021 and 4→6 in 2023. So we stripped out capital not yet in service and measured implied asset life on productive assets only. It peaked at 8.0 years in Q3-2024 and has fallen every quarter since — to 6.7 today. The depreciation rate is rising. Depreciation policy has gotten more conservative through the build, not less. The reported figure only looks stretched because a third of the asset base is a half-built data centre.   DEMAND IS CONFIRMING Backlog: $108B → $520B in five quarters. Coverage from 2.2x to 6.7x LTM cloud revenue. Cloud revenue +82% Y/Y. Cloud is 20.7% of total revenue, up from 14.1%. Cloud operating income: $191M (Q1-23) → $8.8B (Q2-26). And the return metrics have improved as capex ramped, not deteriorated.   SO WHY THE SKEPTICISM FCF turned negative in Q2-2026 — the first negative quarter in 54 quarters of history. Purchase commitments went from $72B to $811B. That's 6.1 years of current-run-rate capex, largely non-cancellable. The return per dollar is excellent. What's gone is the option to stop. That's the asymmetry. Markets price optionality, not just returns.   THE CAVEAT My return metrics lag six quarters — you need forward revenue to measure them. Today's 0.54x describes capital deployed around Q4-2024, when LTM capex was ~$53B vs $132B now. So "returns improved as capex ramped" documents the first ramp. The 2025-26 cohorts aren't measurable until late 2027. That's precisely where diminishing returns would surface first, if they do at all.   Assumptions are mostly conservative: 6-yr asset life (vs 6.7 observed), 45% incremental margin (vs 53.7% actual), 10% WACC, 5% residual. Two lean slightly favorable — revenue per dollar at 0.35 vs 0.33 observed, and a 17% cash tax rate vs 18.4% effective.   Bottom line: per-dollar, this is a no-brainer for management. The risk was never the return. It's the size and irreversibility of the commitment.
Here's $GOOGL after hours chart. The arrow marks the moment Anat Ashkenazi delivered the updated capex guidance. The trading robots are alive and well.
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Unfortunately, every claim made in this viral thread is either false or mischaracterizes Google policy. 1) "Search volumes are declining as legacy search is being increasingly cannibalized by non-monetized LLM queries." Google stated in its Q2 earnings that "Search usage hit an all‑time high during the World Cup this year." It also stated in Q1 earnings that Search queries reached an all-time high that quarter. Ads in AI Overviews monetize at parity with those in legacy Search, and Google's Search revenue increased by 19% in Q1 2026 and 17% in Q2 2026. 2) "recently, Google silently deprecated the 2nd price auction." Google still uses a generalized second-price auction for Search. Google transitioned away from a second-price auction for display in 2019. But it didn't do so "quietly" as stated in the thread; Google announced the change beforehand, and it was received with intense opposition. This structural change to the auction was part of the DoJ's "ad tech" antitrust case against Google, which was decided in 2025. The author claims further in the thread that, based on his own analysis, he is certain that Google has done the same for Search, but Google has announced no such change, and it strikes me as implausible that Google would make such a dramatic change to its auction after having lost two antitrust suits in the last two years. 3) "Google previously had precise keyword targeting settings that allowed advertisers pick individual search phrases to bid on...But now, even if you bid on a specific term or phrase using the strictest exact -match targeting settings, Google will show your ad across 1000’s of unrelated keywords, labeling them as as 'exact match (close variant)'." Google introduced "close variant" in 2014. Phrase match was expanded to include queries that shared the "same meaning" as the keyword in 2019, and Google officially sunset Broad Match Modifier (BMM) in 2021. 4) "Lastly, and perhaps most egregiously, Google quietly stopped respecting budget caps by a factor of 2x." Google's policy is to allow a daily budget to reach up to 2x the budget cap in a single day. The stated purpose of this is to allow advertisers to capitalize on high-traffic days. But on a monthly basis, Google caps total campaign spend to 30.4 * the daily budget cap. Relevant links included below.
As someone who has personally spent $500k / mo+ on Google Ads for years, I can tell you with certainty: This revenue growth in Search is artificial & extremely unhealthy for Google’s business long term Search volumes are declining as legacy search is being increasingly cannibalized by non-monetized LLM queries Google’s response? Manufacture revenue growth via short-sighted, highly extractive, customer-hostile tactics. I.e. charge advertisers more for lower quality clicks, including clicks they do not want and explicitly did not approve Google to charge them for A few examples to illustrate: For all of its history until recently, Google operated on a 2nd price auction model I.e. if you bid $5 CPC and the next highest bidder bids $1 CPC, Google charged you $1.01 for the click (one penny more than the 2nd highest bidder) rather than the $5 you bid This was a genius move by Google early on as it incentivizes advertisers to input their true maximum willingness to pay rather than trying to play the game of bidding low and constantly adjusting to try to stay just ahead of the next highest bidder while still not paying too much However recently, Google silently deprecated the 2nd price auction and began charging advertisers as much as their bid and budget caps allow, regardless of what anyone else is bidding It’s a short-sighted cash grab at the expense of the long term health of the advertiser ecosystem Making thing worse, Google also recently nerfed keyword targeting precision Google previously had precise keyword targeting settings that allowed advertisers pick individual search phrases to bid on, defined down to the character w/ exact match or phrase match targeting This was one of the core features that made search advertising magic, enabling advertisers to run extremely precise campaigns based on exactly what their target customer typed But now, even if you bid on a specific term or phrase using the strictest exact -match targeting settings, Google will show your ad across 1000’s of unrelated keywords, labeling them as as “exact match (close variant)” The definition of “close variant” means whatever they want it to and changes constantly. The result is advertisers get billed for clicks that are totally irrelevant to their business and that their targeting settings explicitly forbid Google from targeting. Google does it anyway and there’s no ability to turn this off So now exact match is broad match, and broad match is just meaningless spam This is all very bad for advertisers, but for Google, it allows them to show your ad and bill you for clicks across 1000x more searches that were previously going unmonetized (mainly because they’re garbage queries no one wants) This is how you grow revenue atop declining search volumes Lastly, and perhaps most egregiously, Google quietly stopped respecting budget caps by a factor of 2x. For example campaigns we’ve been running for years with $1000 daily budget caps suddenly began spending $2000+ per day And the extra spend is entirely on the garbage keywords Google arbitrarily throws in as “exact match (close variants)” which have no value to our business, but can’t be turned off Google offers no refunds nor any recourse for overspend or spend on keywords you explicitly did not target These are not the actions of a healthy business. These are the actions of company whose core business is in decline but desperately needs to pump quarterly earnings so Wall Street will continue to fund insane capex while hopefully looking through their rapidly deteriorating negative free cash flow Google operated a benevolent monopoly for the better part of 25 yrs Meaning the value Google captured from Search was but a small fraction of the value it created, and that spread produced a potential energy that justified expectations of high earnings growth far, far into the future This is now no longer the case At the alter of AI capex, Google is sacrificing the golden goose
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“Basically, what is human dignity made of? If we work together, say, and, even with one look, I make you understand that you are worth nothing and I look down on you, I have killed you. But if I give you regards and respect — out of esteem, responsibility is spawned. Then out of responsibility comes creativity, because every human being has an amount of genius in them. Man needs dignity even more than he needs bread.” om.co/2015/04/27/brunello-cu… via @om
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we all know what happens next
👀 Trading card sales are going parabolic again like they did in 2020-2021
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Replying to @CliffordAsness
I believe Bitcoin is one of the most important assets of all time, but this doesn’t feel right. This type of financial alchemy usually doesn’t end well. Even the best assets don’t “go up” forever.
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buy cheap sell expensive
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As a user, would I use the app with only Teslas, only Waymos, or the app that aggregates all the AV supply in my city? Which option would get me the fastest and cheapest from A to B?
There are only 2 companies (Tesla and waymo) that can produce robotaxis efficiently. They both have their own app. Nobody needs Uber at that point.
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Amazon is the world’s largest employer, so it would stand to gain the most from the productivity gains related to AI and Robotics. It also builds and owns the digital toll roads (data centers) this future relies on. It trades at its lowest PE ever.
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Bought google before buffet
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The rebirth of the industrial revolution. Own the factories, or you will suffer.
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Lots of non-monetizable searches #GOOGLE
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Distribution > first mover
Wow, $GOOGL Gemini has overtaken ChatGPT in top downloads in the US on iOS. Something to keep an eye on as ChatGPT has dominated the standings for months now. $GOOGL execution and product shipment showing results…
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Buy and hold forever
The big money is made by holding onto the leading growth stocks during their "Stage 2" uptrends. A few "beat & raise" quarters in the leaders can generate life-altering returns. Those gains can only be captured by remaining invested & sitting through the short-term volatility.
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Google is underrated.
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yearly reminder
Warren Buffett on the importance of patience 👀
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