private investor | ex-NYSE, Bridgewater, Bernstein. Write "Under The Hood" https://teapawt.net/t.co/Quq8NMGrpt
New York, NY
Joined July 2008
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3 years "Under the Hood", 50 write-ups, real wins, real scars; 3,000+ of you came along. Thank you.
Today's deep dive is Caledonia Mining $CMCL, where the same "1+1>2" pattern that took Aris to 4x is back: "a cash-cow mine funds the bigger project next door."
Zimbabwe. Two assets. One prints cash. Construction on the 2nd starts next month.
At ~$24, $460Mn MktCap, you pay an Attractive Price for the ATM and get the Future Bet Free.
Link in bio
Haven't followed $SOC in a while; noted it's under $1, down 95%+ since my (somewhat lucky) exit last year.
As a long-term investor, my bias is to hold. Revising from bullish to bearish is almost against that instinct. Doing it publicly is even harder. I still remember the cynical and angry replies back then.
One of the best (or worst) things about FinX is how it trains temperament. You hear strong voices on both sides, learn to filter the noise, and engage in meaningful conversations.
It makes me a better investor, cheers.
Now we add $FISV to our "double-down call" not too bad list.
Up 30% since Jun'26, with stabilizing biz and sentiment shifted positively.
$VAL at $30 (Mar'25) -> ~$80
$UNFI at $33 (Dec'25) -> ~$45
$MOH at $130 (Feb'26) -> ~$210
$ARE at $40 (May'26) -> ~$45
$BTG at $4 (Jun'26) -> ~$5.5
$FISV at 48 (Jun'26) -> $63
$VAL at $30 (Mar'25) -> ~$80
$UNFI at $33 (Dec'25) -> ~$50
$MOH at $130 (Feb'26) -> ~$200
$ARE at $40 (May'26) -> ~$50
$BTG at $4 (Jun'26) -> ~$4.5
Every call above was a double-down call, deep in the trough, hated by the crowd, mocked by peers, sentiment in the gutter.
Yet we rise. Every.Damn.Time.
The scars, the results, the helmet-wearing soldier, fighting through the trench. Dare I call it that's my comfort zone.
The next battlefield?
I called it 2 days ago $FISV at $48
What do you think??
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A true story and why "Better ask questions, don't prescribe on unfamiliar stocks."
A family friend (from Taiwan) asked me years ago, " I have some extra $ and wanna try investing, shall I do $NVDA or $AMD?
I asked why pick from these two? He said both CEOs are from Taiwan, share a similar background, and felt trustworthy.
He went with $NVDA: "Don't call me a sexist, but I think guys are better at running a chip company."
I'm so glad I didn't frown on him, and only wished i followed him :-)
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Just noticed $LODE 3Q ER out, and up 15% today.
At first glance, Solar Panel still 0 revenue, still not in production run, yet still "ahead of schedule"?
Which Schedule?
iirc, the 1st site was supposed to be assembled in Dec'25 and ready for production by 1Q26. Multiple delays, and always 1 quarter away from grand opening.
It might be cheap, but it is hard to like something that has "One Quarter Away" Syndrome.
I'll be honest, I didn't expect this advice to come handy this fast.
If your holdings overlap with mine at UTH, today is a very good day. Here is one advice I got long ago that feels relevant today, esp for long-term investors.
"Curb your excitement today, better yet, deposit it in your emotional bank, you will need that when the brutal drawdown arrives, to stay invested".
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$CRON 3Q26, up 9%
Most of my ideas get into a full 20+ page thesis, occasionally find a "Simple, Short, and Compelling one-pager".
Called $CRON Dec'25: rapid growth + turning profit fast, yet traded at net-net ($2.2) to ~2x EV/S ($2.5), after burning prior holders.
Up 50%+ since. 3Q26: stable 15% Op margin, 50%+ YoY growth. Still <3x adj EV/S at $3.8
Will it give up its ER bump later this week? like how it did every time this year??
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Reddit $RDDT CEO Steve Huffman (3Q26):
“Google has really shifted its relationship with the rest of the Internet.”
Whether Friday's $RDDT 30% drawdown was an overreaction is debatable (I'm working on that). But the market, imo, hasn't priced in the threat to content platforms that live on Google referrals.
e.g. $TRIP $YELP $TREE $PPLI
If you are a shareholder, grab a helmet and brace for 3Q26 ER impact.
If your holdings overlap with mine at UTH, today is a very good day. Here is one advice I got long ago that feels relevant today, esp for long-term investors.
"Curb your excitement today, better yet, deposit it in your emotional bank, you will need that when the brutal drawdown arrives, to stay invested".
On "Google has really shifted its relationship with the rest of the Internet"
Exhibition #1 $PPLI 3Q26, down 6% AH.
"Lower open programmatic advertising revenue due to lower impression volumes driven by a 26% decline in Core Sessions, due primarily to AI-oriented search"
Reddit $RDDT CEO Steve Huffman (3Q26):
“Google has really shifted its relationship with the rest of the Internet.”
Whether Friday's $RDDT 30% drawdown was an overreaction is debatable (I'm working on that). But the market, imo, hasn't priced in the threat to content platforms that live on Google referrals.
e.g. $TRIP $YELP $TREE $PPLI
If you are a shareholder, grab a helmet and brace for 3Q26 ER impact.
$RDDT 3Q26, 📉🩸25%.
"Google chokehold fear" was confirmed: AI mode drives no traffic, search referrals are down, and DAU growth is lower.
Small position; in the Feb write-up, I said I'll revisit/add near $95. Didn't forget.
We are close, still chewing, but inclined to add.
Will Reddit be a survivor?
I agree w/ what's said below.
Your thoughts?
3Q26, Huffman
"While extraordinarily useful and powerful, AI search solves a different problem than Reddit. AI does not fulfill people's fundamental need for community connection and belonging with other people, and it lacks context and nuance. The Reddit experience captures the human experience in a way that no other platform can replicate"
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One-pager $MOH 3Q26 ER
(from -5% pre-market to +2% now)
1⃣ ACA mktplace is relentlessly cut ($ losing segment)
2⃣ MLR% stabilized and established Y27 baseline 92.5-93%
3⃣At 93%, biz segment is breakeven, all profit from net interest.
4⃣ OpEx managed well, and expect more leverage Y27.
Y27 EPS guidance:
> At current MLR, $5/sh
> Model 0-150bps improvement (premium up 6-7.5%, cost up 5.5-6%). Each 100bp is $5/sh.
> $4 embedded earnings (FL CMS, MAPD exit, Op leverage).
Model: Y27 $9 - 16/sh EPS.
Today at $220/sh, ~17x P/E at midpoint.
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Kalshi has Dems taking both the Senate and House.
If that holds, name one stock you buy today that the market hasn’t priced in.
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My kid’s bball varsity team, and 90% of the conference, when choosing shoes, are debating between LeBron, AirMax, JD, Luka, etc,
That's right, picking which Nike series; other brands don't exist, in their eyes.
No position in $NKE. Just saying SneakerFinX feels like an echo chamber. You ask the consumers (kids), and they roll their eyes: "What are you talking about ??"