32yr JSE veteran equity analyst covering small- to mid-cap industrial, agricultural & food stocks. All views are my own and do not constitute investment advice
Cape Town, South Africa
Joined November 2018
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Always very grateful & thankful for the years of support from institutions who have voted @smalltalkdaily No.1 Small Cap analyst of the year in the @FinancialMail awards
The latest 2026 FM awards is added to my home office shelf
Consistency and diligence to my sector
Thankfully in the 2025/26 harvest, WG1 delivery yields are at 92.9% currently versus 64% for the 2024/25 season That extra tonnage of quality available WM is a gift as a carry-over into an El Nino year
South African WHITE MAIZE PRICES, Rands per tonne. After all, the country has ample maize supplies: a record 17.5 million tonnes, against consumption of roughly 12.0 million tonnes.
And yes, there are El Niño risks in the 2026-27 season. But these price trends mirror the current environment of abundant maize supplies.
The Chinese OEM tsunami in Europe
Chinese brands for the 1st time outsold Japanese vehicles in EU
Chinese automakers outsold Japanese rivals in Europe for the first time over a full quarter, underscoring how quickly brands like BYD and Chery Automobile are gaining ground in the region. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
New 52-week low for tile, bathroom and house refurb business $JSEITL Italtile as it traded to 759 cents then bounces to 798 cents. I wonder if #ITL is back in the market buying back shares at these lowly levels ?
On a PE of 7.0x versus 10.1x for sector comparative $JSECSB Cashbuild, #ITL appears a relative bargain valuation wise on face value
However, the underlying sectoral landscape remains highly challenging with 2 recent interest rate hikes, rising energy/fuel costs hitting consumers and the increasing spectre of rising food costs into Q1 2027
Both #ITL and #CSB tend to have better Q4 periods to the end of the calendar year, however, this year money in consumers pockets may be much tighter with spending - perhaps - not as allocated towards DIY and home refurbishment
Tough space to be in despite the lowly valuations with no catalyst for any earnings improvement or share price uplift seemingly ahead if one reads the South African GDP or economic tea leaves
Smalltalkdaily Research retweeted
Fertilizer through Hormuz has dropped to zero.
No fertilizer cargoes crossing the strait in September or October.
Before the war, about 20% of the world’s traded nitrogen fertilizer went through it, Fertilizer Daily reports.
The Gulf also supplies about half of the world’s traded sulfur.
Hear me out: urea isn’t the problem.
China raised its nitrogen exports about 47% and the US about 60%.
By the end of August urea was back to its January price, IFPRI data shows.
Sulfur is the problem.
It has more than doubled, to above $1,000 a tonne, and phosphate is up 25–30%.
You need sulfur to make phosphate fertilizer.
Mosaic has idled two Louisiana plants, and India’s fertilizer subsidy bill could pass 3 trillion rupees, against 1.71 trillion budgeted.
Oil found other ways out of the Gulf.
Sulfur hasn’t.
source: World Visualized
More big news for democracy in Eastern Europe and #Puton loses yet another supportive ally within greater Europe
Serbia follows Hungary in voting out long-standing leaders
Serbia's long-standing leader Aleksandar Vučić has admitted defeat to the student-led protest movement in snap parliamentary elections
Peter Magyar officially took office as Hungary's new prime minister, ending Viktor Orban's 16-year grip on power in May 2026
Monday data point, iron ore
Another quiet week with iron ore pretty steady bouncing off recent 52-week lows at US$90.83 = R1,506 a ton at current spot (16.58)
The reduction in Chinese port stocks of fines provided some support to spot prices, but overseas supply showed no indication of tightening and mills displayed limited willingness to rebuild inventories
The market has been softer as many blast furnaces are under maintenance. Further, steel production tends to slow over the Chinese winter. Freight rates are moving higher again and there remains ample global iron ore supply currently
On $JSEAFT Afrimat from last week's H1 2026 results commentary and live presentation, it worth noting
Ás the iron ore price chart below shows, #AFT had a weaker price in H1 2026 versus H1 2025 with prices peaking May 13th and since have tumble -16.72%
Further, #AFT has to pay Kumba a 5% marketing fee for its iron ore exports
The stronger rand like-on-like
#AFT also mentioned that iron ore shipping rates per ton - which were @US$16 soared - due to the Middle East war and tightening supply chains - to a high of US$30 a ton (+88%) they have since moderated to US$25 a ton but remains +56% like-on-like
Also the higher diesel price. #AFT uses 2 million litres a month and the fuel price since March has risen >80%, thus operating machinery / crushing plants etc on mine has sharply increased
This explains, alongside the drop in volumes from Arcelor Mittal, whu #AFT H1 2026 Bulk Commodities operating profit fell -97% to R11,2 million
Some recovery in iron ore domestic volumes from Arcelor Mittal will occur in H2 but unless the global iron ore price improves, the rand weakens and shipping rates tumble, iron ore results to February 2027 may continue to be challenging.
As a comparative, iron ore alone in FY2026 made an operating profit of R605.1 million but bulk commodities (factoring in the loss from Nkomati) made R444.6 million
This shows how hard a climb iron ore has into H2 September 2025 - February 2026) to recover its poise
Two slides from the H1 2026 #AFT results and the same two slides from FY2026 results as a comparative for bulk commodities and iron ore
In the current iron ore market, as I suggest, it may be challenging to recover poise
Smalltalkdaily Research retweeted
BREAKING: Brazil’s stock market falls -20% after President Lula da Silva is unexpectedly re-elected.
Smalltalkdaily Research retweeted
Top Performers in the JSE Top 40 YTD
1️⃣ Sasol +186.9%
2️⃣ Anheuser-Busch InBev +33.8%
3️⃣ Glencore +28.0%
4️⃣ BHP Group +26.5%
5️⃣ Shoprite +25.6%
6️⃣ OUTsurance +21.5%
7️⃣ Discovery +18.6%
8️⃣ Anglo American +16.5%
9️⃣ MTN Group +15.3%
🔟 Vodacom +14.7%
🤖 Made with AI
Smalltalkdaily Research retweeted
JUST IN: 🇧🇷 Lula da Silva wins Brazil's Presidential election, defeating Flavio Bolsonaro.
Smalltalkdaily Research retweeted
1. Think of a number
2. Double it
3. Add 6
4. Divide it in half
5. Subtract the number you started
6. The answer is 3
7. Correct?
Smalltalkdaily Research retweeted
Luxury groups’ value drops by €250bn as Chinese consumer demand fades ft.trib.al/v9lHeqZ
Smalltalkdaily Research retweeted
HEATWAVE AND LIKELY GRAIN AND OILSEED PLANTINGS IN SOUTH AFRICA FOR THE 2026-27 SEASON
The current heatwave across South Africa is concerning. But it isn’t unexpected. We have been stating for some time that the summer 2026-27 season will be challenging, with a likely drought.
But we have also thought that better soil moisture following favourable summer rains last season, and additional rains in recent months, will help early crop development.
Some farmers share this view, and they have already planted in some regions of the country. While we haven’t changed our optimism, the intense heat does worry us. We are monitoring conditions closely and planting in various parts of the country.
On Tuesday, October 27, the Crop Estimates Committee will also release the farmers’ planting intentions data for the 2026-27 season in the summer grains and oilseed areas. This will be an important guide to the farmers’ sentiment for this new season.
Typically, South African farmers plant around 4.5 million hectares for the summer grains and oilseeds. We will know this week if they intend to maintain this area or reduce it. The weather outlook, combined with the higher fertiliser and fuel costs, is among the key factors farmers will consider as they decide on the plantings for the 2026-27 season.
In irrigated areas, dam levels remain high, with the major dams over 80% full, which gives us confidence that fruit and vegetables produced under irrigation should have a fair season. For the summer grains and oilseeds, roughly 80% of the area is rainfed, with a small part of the crop under irrigation.
Anyways, this is an important week for us to have a rough idea of the plantings. The major issue top of mind is the heatwave across various parts of the country, which is not favourable for agriculture.
-wandile
Watched this earlier on Del Monte canned fruit & veg and the various issues that led this giant to go bust
Echoes as to what may be going on in SA 🇿🇦 canning especially rising costs, tin plate & steel escalations yet alone the global tariff issues
The Brand That Fed America for 130 Years Just Went Bankrupt youtu.be/FKxlqoKH78g?si=KP_6… via @YouTube
Smalltalkdaily Research retweeted
[WATCH] Afrimat faces its toughest trading conditions since listing in 2006, with surging diesel and shipping costs adding pressure. CEO Andries van Heerden speaks to Bronwyn Nielsen on #TheExecutiveExchange about navigating the challenges.
#Moneyweb #Podcast
Watch the full episode here:
ow.ly/U3Mz50ZZXqG
Smalltalkdaily Research retweeted
Typically, South African farmers plant around 4.5 million hectares for summer grains and oilseeds. We will know this week whether they intend to maintain this area or reduce it.
Some statistics to put into context the October 24th 1929 Wall Street Crash
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Timeline
•Peak (September 1929): Reached 381 (up from 63 in August 1921) a far cry from today’s 52.215 value of DJIA
•Black Thursday (October 24, 1929): 12,894,650 shares traded in a panic wave
•Black Monday (October 28, 1929): The DJIA plunged -13%
•Black Tuesday (October 29, 1929): 16 to 16.5 million shares traded, and the DJIA dropped another -12%
•Trough / Bottom (July 1932): Fell to 41.22—a total loss of nearly 90% of peak stock value
•Recovery: The market did not return to its 1929 high until November 1954
