Co-Director @roundourwayUK // @IPPR @NEF @thefabians alum // @Persuasion_UK & @LCEF_UK advisory board // nerd's nerd // wheaton's law // eat pizza.have guts🍕🎉

in some cold water somewhere
Joined September 2008
Odd that @NewStatesman has chosen to frame @EdConwaySky's front page story as a net zero hit piece, when the article is overwhelmingly...NOT about net zero. See here: the article with red highlighting the net zero bit, clearly not much at all. But if you're intrigued ...🧵
FOOL BRITANNIA by @EdConwaySky While many countries face higher energy costs due to the events in the Middle East and Russia, few have seen quite as big a spike as Britain has. Industrial power costs are comfortably higher than in most developed nations, with domestic costs not far behind. To some extent, this is a function of bad luck and geopolitics. Britain is particularly dependent on natural gas to provide the critical baseload power for its electricity, not to mention much of its domestic heating. But higher energy costs are also the product of policy. Britain pushed faster and further towards net zero (the goal of diminishing carbon emissions to close to nothing in net terms) than most of its peers. The ambition, held by Labour and Conservative governments, was that the UK should be the global leader in decarbonisation – the flag-bearer for net zero. In one respect, the enterprise was a stunning success – Britain is one of the fastest-decarbonising major economies in the world. The main catch in – and the cardinal sin of – the make-things-cheap economy is how it affects energy bills. For all that Boris Johnson and Ed Miliband insisted (and as far as I can tell, sincerely believed) that renewables would mean lower costs, the opposite has happened. Unlike solar power, the cost of which fell precipitously as the Chinese mastered the mass production of arrays, wind power has remained comparatively expensive. And so Britain’s ambitious offshore wind programme happened largely thanks to a complex web of subsidies and price guarantees. Those interventions will lock in higher power costs in this country for years. There is a point – most likely a decade and a half in the future – at which the savings from net zero (less spent on gas and fuels) should outweigh the costs of building all the necessary infrastructure. But for the time being, the policy is expensive – nearly £30bn a year for the next five years, which is the equivalent of an extra 5p on the basic rate of income tax. One of the main reasons net zero is becoming so controversial (and will likely get more controversial) is that the majority of those costs end up on consumer bills. The other problem is that much of this decarbonisation was achieved through deindustrialisation. In the face of higher energy costs and rising environmental taxes, many manufacturers relocated overseas. Indeed, more than half of Britain’s carbon footprint is now accounted for by imported goods. Paradoxically, the more steel mills and chemicals plants shut down, the better the UK’s environmental credentials, since net zero plans ignore the embedded carbon in our imports and focus solely on what is puffed out of domestic flues and chimneys. Cover art by Doug Chayka
2
15
3
47
5,872
34
77
1,271
25
1
46
1,525
25
45
821
1
25
1
47
1,751
Think this is right from Burnham’s interview with @patrickkmaguire. There’s too much SW1 wisdom the public are unrealistic, it’s not true, but they do want to see you’re making every effort to make things better and what you’re working towards. Politics of trying is underrated.
4
9
1
47
6,601
As others (@OwenWntr, MiC etc) have noted, social attitudes cut by financial security is quite a neat prism. Financially insecure social liberals going Green, financially insecure conservatives Reform. Lab & LD left with financially secure liberals. Con higher with secure cons.
3
20
2
49
12,336
Nationally, this suggests Labour vote disproportionately stayed at home or went to another left party. Massive collapse to Plaid in Wales. Reform turned out an energised base with some switchers on top. Greens also. Lab->Reform exists but not the major part of the picture.
6
30
7
80
19,124
NEW: What exactly happened in the local and devolved elections in England, Scotland and Wales last week? @Persuasion_UK has some new polling out today which offers a first glimpse. Thread here on top line findings from each nation. 🧵
2
18
2
57
23,421
28
50
1,148
33
60
1,373
30
63
1,054
2
27
44
1,124
1
30
57
965
1
34
48
1,236
26
76
1,158
30
2
50
1,300
30
2
69
1,380
1
34
1
99
2,230