Native Texan | Husband | Improver of Government Processes | @ASU alumnus | Drone enthusiast | Board member @EduFoundHC | Opinions are mine alone
Joined February 2009
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Early voting in Texas is over. Here’s the wrap, starting in Harris County. 🧵
1,081,009 Harris ballots: 39.4% of registered voters. That’s above 2022’s 29.1% at the same point, short of 2024’s 45.6%.
votes.stevenrdavid.com/harri…
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The rest of Texas is the counterweight. Its 242 counties are at 78% of 2024 turnout, and Republican-primary voters lead there by about 247,000.
Statewide, it nets out to Republicans needing about 54% of Independents to break even.
votes.stevenrdavid.com/texas…
The bottom line:
Democrats lead in Texas’s big counties. Republicans lead everywhere else. Independents decide it.
And Election Day still has to vote: in recent elections, it has leaned Republican.
votes.stevenrdavid.com
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New dashboard: the Texas Poll Path.
Polls have Talarico vs. Paxton within the margin of error. This tool asks a simpler question: what would each of Texas’s 254 counties have to do for that to be true? 🧵
votes.stevenrdavid.com/texas…
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The trend to watch: since Oct 23, the move Democrats need has grown about 0.1 point a day, as Dallas cooled and rural counties caught up.
The “Is it getting easier or harder?” chart tracks it daily.
votes.stevenrdavid.com/texas…
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This isn’t a forecast. It’s a ledger: what has to happen for the polls to be right.
Pick a race, toggle “To win” or “To match the polls,” click any county, and change the assumptions yourself.
votes.stevenrdavid.com/texas…
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Texas early vote through Thursday, day 11 of 12:
4.28M ballots across 11 big counties. That’s 1.5x the 2022 midterm and 88% of 2024’s presidential pace at the same point.
One day of early voting left. 🧵
votes.stevenrdavid.com
6/
The surprise nobody’s talking about: Republican mail voters have disappeared.
Harris has 6,974 mail ballots from GOP-primary voters, down 40% from 11,691 at this point in the 2022 midterm. Total mail is below 2022 even though in-person turnout is 1.5x.
votes.stevenrdavid.com/harri…
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The bases have shown up. Of the Harris voters who usually vote early, 115K are still out, and 38% of the ones who skip primaries haven’t voted yet.
Those voters, and Election Day, decide what’s left.
votes.stevenrdavid.com/harri…
