我对未来 3 到 5 年软件工程行业的预测:整个行业都会后悔现在不招初级开发者。
各家公司正把初级工程师当成能用 AI 砍掉的成本,却忽略了一个事实:培养工程师,是在为我们明天需要的人才做投资。
未来 3 到 5 年,输家会是那些为了降本而砍掉初级岗位的公司。这些公司会发现,自己不得不在一个越来越小、因此也越来越贵的资深工程师池子里抢人。
赢家会是那些继续投资初级工程师、持续提供成长机会,并且有明确留人策略的公司。
而且在一段时间内,投入培养初级工程师的技术咨询公司会收获巨大回报。因为那些招不到人推进项目的公司,只能花高价向咨询公司买成熟的人才。
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We have a name for this internally: Team Cores.
Like CPU cores, but for a team: how many tasks you can run in parallel without losing track.
Same frontier model, different core count:
Claude Code / Codex: 10
OpenCode / T3 Code: ~24
Orca: 36
Mirasim: 64
We built Mirasim because we kept losing track of our own coding agents.
Past three or four terminal tabs of Claude Code and Codex, nobody on our team knew which one was done, which one was waiting on a question, and which two were editing the same file.
So now we just tell Mira Bot what needs doing, in a chat. What it fixes for us:
1. One message instead of five tabs. Say "fix the checkout timeout, and add a CSV export", and Mira Bot hands each task to an agent and starts it. Claude Code, Codex and 8 other agent CLIs work.
2. You can see who is doing what. Every task shows its current step in the chat, and the result lands in the same place when it's done.
3. Nothing is hidden. Open a task and it's a normal Claude Code or Codex session underneath. You can keep talking to that agent directly.
4. No second bill. It runs on the Claude or ChatGPT subscription you're already signed into.
It's a desktop app for Mac, Windows and Linux, free with your own accounts. It's still alpha and it isn't open source.
15 seconds of it below (demo workspace, made-up data). If you run more than one agent at a time, what breaks first for you?
mirasim.ai
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Day one of Fable 5.2, wired straight into a super-agent harness as a team chat bot.
Mention fable-x in the room and it runs commands and ships code from a live workspace while the whole team watches.
grok bot with the brain of fable 5.2
let's see what it's capable of 👀
sign up now 👇 to get $5 in free credits and take it for a spin
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it's time to "refactor my entire codebase, make no mistakes."
Introducing Claude Fable 5.2 and Claude Mythos 5.2, designed to tackle the most daunting technical challenges.
They’re capable collaborators on ambitious projects in many fields, and show improvements in areas like coding, reasoning, and vision.
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Mirasim 的文档功能,已经几乎赶上飞书了,Agent 写文档从没有这么丝滑过
我说实话了,现在不少出海人开发都是Claude Code、Codex几个工具换着用,管理起来确实有点麻烦
有个大佬给我看了个叫Mirasim的工具,感觉挺有意思奥!它不是新的Agent,而是把Claude Code、Codex等多个编程Agent整合到一个工作台里
比如Claude额度蹬完了,可以直接在同一个项目工作区里用Codex,想让两个Agent分别处理不同任务,也可以开多个会话并行跑。项目文件、终端、Git 和代码修改记录都能在工作台里统一查看
我实测了下,这个新手引导真的做的对于我这种开发小白很友好,一键cli直连,页面UI也简洁,新人上手理解成本还蛮低的
另外还支持独立 Git Worktree,多个 Agent 可以在不同分支上干活,减少相互影响。甚至出门在外,也能用手机跟进电脑上正在运行的Agent,跨设备管理更方便了
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Mirasim might have built the best screenshot tool in the world. No screenshot tool can exist detached from an agent anymore, and Mirasim takes that to the peak.
Hit a global shortcut or click "+ -> Screenshot" in the chat input to send captures straight to Claude Code, Codex, or Gemini CLI, with a HEX/RGB color loupe, OCR, and scrolling capture built in.
Click Auto redact (or press D) and it spots phone numbers, emails, API keys, and IPs, tags each type in yellow, and pixelates them locally on your device. Nothing is uploaded.
You can toss CleanShot X, Shottr, Xnapper, Snagit 2026, Windows Snipping Tool, Snipaste, and PixPin. One built-in Mirasim screenshot is all you need.
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泪如泉涌
Replying to @KasuganoSoro @Mirasim_ADE
很少见一个工具被用户反馈推着改了几百个版本
Mirasim 现在完成度已经很高了,哪怕只当本地的 agent 工作台用也很值了
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owaowo 👾 retweeted
an agent in our Mirasim space built this little 3D island game in under 30 minutes.
pick a card, click the sea, the island grows a tile. cottages light up at night.
it was supposed to be making cover images for our posts.
30+ devs are already hacking on opencode together on Mirasim.
Swap "github" for "mirasim" in github.com/anomalyco/opencod… to jump into the live repo: watch active sessions, steer agents together, and ship PRs from your browser with zero setup. teapawt.net/sthnavy/status/2116162…
OpenAI 刚发布了一份完整的 GPT Image 2.6 提示词指南,这是我读过最清晰的提示词参考文档之一。
@WolfRicardo 40 秒的视频,核心内容如下:
【8 条原则】
1. 先定好结果:主体、用途、构图、宽高比
2. 选易读的格式:自然段落、带标签的分段,或结构化文本
3. 描述画面里看得到的东西:材质、光线、颜色、取景框
4. 写清人物和动作:比例、视线方向、互动方式
5. 画面里的文字要用引号写准原文、标明位置、检查拼写
6. 改图时,把「要改的」和「要保留的」分开写
7. 给每张参考图指定明确的用途
8. 每次只迭代修改一处
【两个模型】
• Flare (gpt-image-2.6-flare):主打速度
• Sunburst (gpt-image-2.6-sunburst):细节更丰富,编辑更精准
【值得记住的参数】
• quality:auto / low / medium / high / xhigh / max
• size:1024x1024、1536x1024、1024x1536,或自定义尺寸(16 的倍数,宽高比最高 3:1)
• background:支持透明背景输出
• output_format:png、jpeg、webp,以及 svg 和 gif
指南还详细讲了标记引导编辑、图片内文字翻译、风格迁移、保持人物面部一致的换装、透明抠图、草图转渲染图,以及物体消除。
我的体会:写提示词要像创意总监下需求,别当成搜索框。把画面里有什么、什么不能动、什么要改都交代清楚。
一个直接改善出图效果的实用技巧:改图时,分成「要改的 (Change)」和「要保留的 (Keep)」两个列表来写。
比如附图里的例子:
Change(要改的):花瓶颜色 → 深钴蓝色,亮面釉。
Keep(要保留的):花瓶形状、洞石底座、墙面、窗户阴影、光线、镜头角度。
只要明确写出哪些东西绝对不能动,模型跑偏的情况就会少很多。
OpenAI just published a full guide on prompting GPT Image 2.6, and it's one of the clearest prompting references I've read.
I turned it into a 40-second video. Here's what's inside:
THE 8 PRINCIPLES
1. Define the result: subject, use, composition, aspect ratio
2. Pick a readable format: prose, labeled sections, or structured text
3. Describe what's visible: materials, lighting, color, framing
4. Specify people and actions: scale, gaze, interaction
5. Quote exact text, state its placement, check the spelling
6. For edits, separate what changes from what must stay
7. Give every reference image a role
8. Iterate one change at a time
TWO MODELS
• Flare (gpt-image-2.6-flare): built for speed
• Sunburst (gpt-image-2.6-sunburst): more detail, more precise edits
PARAMETERS WORTH KNOWING
• quality: auto / low / medium / high / xhigh / max
• size: 1024x1024, 1536x1024, 1024x1536, or custom (multiples of 16, ratio up to 3:1)
• background: transparent output is supported
• output_format: png, jpeg, webp, plus svg and gif
The guide also walks through markup-guided edits, translating text inside images, style transfer, identity-preserving outfit changes, transparent cutouts, sketch-to-render, and object removal.
My takeaway: prompt like a creative director, not a search box. Be specific about what you see, what must stay, and what changes.
Full guide: developers.openai.com/api/do…
The harness environment matters more than the model now.
We built @Mirasim_ADE for this: a shared space where Claude Code, Codex, and Kimi Code run in the same environment, so you can switch models mid-task without losing context or rebuilding state.
This is f*cking insane. Andrej Karpathy:
"The biggest mistake in AI right now - people are forcing agents to work instead of mastering the harness engineering for model first
We made that mistake in 2016 at OpenAI - It cost us 5 years "
Opus 5.5 → Prompts → Agents → Graphs → Harness
what Karpathy really means:
step 1 → stop making your agent do everything, learn the model underneath first
step 2 → demos are easy - products take a decade. self-driving proved it - skip the foundation and everything breaks
step 3 → the agent isn't the product. the foundation is. build that - and the agents show up on their own
"you building agents right now - you're at the forefront. not OpenAI. not DeepMind. you "
Watch it today before it gets buried
Then read the full Opus 5.5 harness engineering guide below ↓
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图一里更陡的是 B300:7 月以来租金涨了 106%(每小时 7.35 美元),同期综合 Token 成本跌了 58.4%。
图二统计的还是 Neocloud(非三大云的算力租赁商)报价。顶着高息借钱买新卡的二线算力商和没自有应用层的模型厂,会最先扛不住这个剪刀差。
美股这轮AI大跌,我觉得市场是在重新算一笔不太好看的账。
Citadel Securities十月底的数据里,有两个数字放在一起很扎眼。
过去半年,市场实际支付的Token价格降了约50%,前沿模型平均价格降了62%。同一时间,B200 GPU的租赁价格涨了27.5%。
卖出去的东西越来越便宜,生产它要用的东西越来越贵。
按Citadel的测算,其他条件不变,模型公司得把每小时Token产量提到原来的2.55倍,才能守住原来的毛利率。
我自己除了一下:
1.275 ÷ 0.5 ≈ 2.55。
和前面两个数字正好对得上。
这就像制造业老板最怕的局面:厂房和设备越买越贵,出厂价却一路往下掉。而美国这些公司,还是借钱买GPU、建数据中心、签长期电力合同。
下面还有人在压价。
OpenRouter上,中国模型的Token占比今年2月是6%到13%,9月到了57%到67%。
它们不用每项能力都赢。
客服、翻译、内容生成这些活,效果够用,价格再便宜六到九成,企业就有动力换。
榜单第一解决不了这个问题,Token价格已经先被打下来了。
以前市场默认Token用得越多,模型公司赚得越多,所以敢给GPU、云和数据中心很高的估值。
现在调用量还在涨,用户付的钱没跟着涨。
算力需求可能还会增长,英伟达的卡也可能继续卖。但基础模型公司的定价权、云厂商的利润率,还有靠借钱建机房的那批公司,账会越来越难算。
以后看AI公司,我不只看它处理了多少Token,更想看这些Token最后换回多少美元。
量涨得快,收入跟不上。
几千亿美元的数据中心,最后总得有人买单。
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今天你走进任何一家 Apple Store,花 599 美元买台 Mac Mini,20 分钟装上免费的开源 AI,转手就能卖给 60 岁的律师或医生,收 7,500 美元现金
第一次听,觉得这简直像违法的
为什么这群人愿意爽快开支票(以及具体怎么搭):
你去问任何一个离婚律师、整形医生、注册会计师(CPA)或 60 岁的百万富翁,为什么不用 ChatGPT 打理业务
得到的回答全都一模一样:
“我不能把客户的私人报税表、病历或法律合同传到别人的云端”
律师一旦把客户合同泄露给公共 AI 模型,是真的会吊销执照的
所以只能每年花 65,000 美元雇个人类行政助理坐在办公桌前,读邮件、总结电话、往日历上排日程
再看看洛杉矶、纽约和迈阿密的年轻人现在在干什么:
第 1 步:走进 Apple 店,花 599 美元买一台基础款 Mac Mini
第 2 步:把 OpenClaw(GitHub 上免费)和本地开源模型直接装进硬盘,数据一步都不会离开这台银色小盒子
第 3 步:连上一个私密 Telegram 聊天(用 @BotFather 只要 2 分钟),接好 Google Calendar 和 Gmail,再把 Fireflies 连到 Zoom 上
第 4 步:往文件夹里丢一份 1 页纸的指令文件(叫 SOUL.md),写上客户的写作风格、报价,以及排日程的规矩
接着你手里拿着这个银色盒子,走进律师或医生的办公室说:
“这是一台装在盒子里的私人 AI 行政助理,就插在你办公室墙上。没有任何数据会碰公有云。你上班开车时在 Telegram 发条 10 秒语音,它就能 24/7 全天候回邮件、总结 Zoom 会议、起草合同、约日历。请个人类助理每年要 65,000 美元,这个盒子一口价 7,500 美元,买断归你”
对你来说,这是一台 599 美元的苹果电脑加 20 分钟的终端命令
对一个每小时收费 800 美元、受够了每年花 6.5 万美元养懒秘书的 60 岁律所合伙人来说,7,500 美元只是零花钱
一周卖 1 台,不用从头写一行代码,每个月净赚 27,000 美元纯利润
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Linear 过去三个季度代码改动量从 1.37M 涨到 5.82M(4.2 倍),合入的 PR 从 4,964 涨到 11,577(2.3 倍)。
不仅 PR 变多了,单个 PR 吞掉的任务也在变大:设计师和 PM 直接提 PR,agent 按整个项目而不是单个 issue 交付。
写代码这步解决之后,瓶颈全在怎么给每个 PR 自动出截图、视频和预览包来降低 Review 成本。
People keep asking how companies like Ramp, Linear, and Anthropic ship so much software with agents.
There is no new SDLC or secret set of tools. The tools are increasingly available to everyone. You can build your own, use Linear, Claude, or whatever works.
The bigger difference is ambition. These companies encourage their teams to build more, experiment more, and let agents do more of the work. That's the main different between "AI native" or not. You try to use the technology to the max.
But don't get there by adopting a tool. You get there by changing what you believe your teams are capable of.
So in the very simplest way:
- let agents build
- make it easier and faster to contribute
- increase the ambition of what your teams attempt.
In practice, that means things like:
- Standardize around cloud agents. Most of our code (5M lines last quater) is now written in Linear with our Linear cloud coding agent. Cloud sandboxes make standardizing the system and environment easier for everyone and enables faster contributions
- Linear agent (with code access and cloud agent) operates in Slack too. If there is a discussion or someone notices a problem just say "@linear fix this" (decrease the time from something noticed to fixed)
- As bugs, errors etc arrive in Linear, send them to Triage, and have Loop to auto-investigate (connect to tools like Sentry, Datadog), and write a fix
- Let designers, PMs, non-technical people contribute code where useful. If they notice a problem, tell them they can submit a fix. If they want to try something, ask them to build a prototype.
- Set up code review agent and system to make sure PRs are safe to merge.
- Run security as an automation, have agents constantly try to find security issues in your codebase, as they find, send it to a coding agent
- Instead of working on issue level, increase ambition, make a whole project, ask the agent to ask questions, investigate code base, create issues and have the agent work on the whole project at once. Set up goals like "give me proof that what you build works". All our PRs now come with screenshots and videos and preview build you can
- Bring customer feedback to the system like Linear, and make it available for your team. At Linear every project now starts with 10-500 customer notes that influence the direction of the work, and which customers we should ask to test the solution first.
- Set up Loops/automations to constantly update reference documents for agents, like product area/code owners so work can be routed to right humans
Then what is left is how do you set direction for your teams (initiatives, projects they should work on) and how do you review results (better code review, Linear does it with Guided Reviews), how you maintain quality/cohesion which is not a new problem either.
Basically most of the problems you always had remain, but the execution bit is now more and more solved.
At @linear we can help with automation, cloud agents, and code review, customer feedback and planning bits.
But we can't change your mindset or how your company operates.
If your company is still spending energy debating jira workflow steps, you're probably solving the wrong problems.
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