Host of the Tall Oaks Podcast. Advisory work focused on retirement planning & management. Heavy focus on portfolio management and tax planning. Posts ≠ advice.
St George, Utah
Joined May 2022
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People who work in residential real estate never seem to remember that their asset classes absolutely prices on the fundamentals. There is very little short term price noise, but there is plenty of funny business that can suppress the real value properties are trading at. (I.e. prepaid lender buy-downs)
The thing that makes real estate so tough right now is that renting is both incredibly cheap and trending down compared to buying in most markets.
This is a massive headwind for the total return argument of real estate (appreciation) and the cashflow argument.
Now I must remind you. It’s always a good time to buy a great deal. If you find one.
In most markets, buying real estate as an investment without leverage is tough too because you’re often buying a cap rate less than cash or a duration matched bond while you still maintain equity exposure with headwinds rather than a guarantee of the return of nominal capital.
How novel. I’ve been using $GLDM as collateral for years.
If adopted, it could change some thesis thoughts of mine. I am highly skeptical they could stomach the market damage it would bring though.
It would be quite interesting to see the markets react to this kind of talk though and how Congress and the Executive branch react, potentially giving an early tell.
While the Anthropic S-1 is fascinating, I have zero edge. I don’t believe the market will price an IPO on purely classical fundamentals and I’m not a specialized equity analyst in the sector to even try and begin to understand the nuances of pricing it “correctly”.
Once it trades, we will begin to be able to derive more understanding from price, which is the thing that ultimately matters the most.
The DXY looks to be holding a key level after breaking out of a base. This is forming potentially significant momentum on a weekly timeframe.
I am not going to pretend to know what it might mean definitively for risk-assets, but I remain long dollar for now...
A quick rule of thumb:
You can check your spreadsheet detailing your entire net worth including all of your rental properties with full rent role details in public, or you can act like a jackass to people around you.
You should do neither.
But under no circumstances, never do both simultaneously.
Branden DuCharme, CMT, CFP® retweeted
Well, well, well… maybe change is in the air…
Ken Griffin explains why the rise of passive investing only works as long as active managers keep doing the research that sets prices
“So what’s very interesting is the rise of passive investing plays to the realization that markets are either efficient or semi-efficient."
"And it’s a way for investors to have low-cost exposure to either broad indices, to the world as a whole, or to specific sectors without having to pay the fees of active management."
"It’s been revolutionary for the world, this embracing of passive investing. But passive investing only works if there’s a meaningful community of people involved in fundamental research who are helping to set the pricing of securities."
"So passive investing requires the existence of capable, successful, and competitive traditional asset managers for the theory that underlies passive investing to actually play out, to actually manifest itself."
"So the rise of short-term investors helps to ensure that markets are efficient with respect to news that’s rapidly evolving. But we should really try to make sure that we take every step possible to make it that traditional asset managers have the ability to have prosperous and successful firms because they are so critical in the price discovery process that passive investing depends upon.”
Avoid these people like the plague.
I’ve observed a phenomenon with a subset of people I've spoken to in discovery.
Let’s call them "Mike".
Mike is a high performer. His net worth is 7-8 figures.
Mike has a chip on his shoulder.
the source of that chip is unknown, but sometimes admitted outright.
Mike sees money as a measuring stick...
more is better, especially if it's more than his friends, family, or coworkers.
No "number" will likely ever be enough for Mike.
Mike is ultra fee-sensitive across the board.
He wants the best advice, the best service, the best outcomes...for the lowest possible fee.
You have a minimum fee? Make an exception. He says he won’t be that much work.
Mike treats professionals poorly.
His emails are short, transactional, and borderline disrespectful. (often more bark than bite, especially when speaking live
Mike wants the world delivered yesterday.
Mike takes on high risk in his portfolio, then uses recent short-term wins as evidence of his investing prowess.
Mike is always looking for a tax avoidance edge (even if it lives in the IRS' gray area, or crosses the line completely). He'll never get audited. Find him a CPA who will look the other way. Someone aggressive!
Mike loves seeking out exclusive private investments. Not for the fundamentals, but rather so he has something to talk about at cocktail parties or on the golf course.
Mike is wealthy.
Mike is also deeply unhappy.
Don’t be like Mike.
“Banks don’t go out of business for taking risk. They go out of business for applying leverage to things they can account for as riskless.”
- @ConvexityDredge
Ounces = pounds and pounds = pain.
When I was in a recon platoon, we’d do anything to save weight. We’d cut the handles of our toothbrushes shorter even.
So take the Glock on weight alone since reliability and accuracy are not concerns in either model.
Most people are surprised to learn though that cutting a side arm from our kit altogether was usually the right answer. They’re largely overrated for most ops. Don’t complicate your life when it doesn’t need to be.
