Storm Context

deterministic ensembles left / ai ensembles right

We get a rare deep eastern pacific radar loop on a rapidly deepening #Champi today as it crosses south of Guam. One of the tools on stormcontext.com is a historical hurricane lookup tool.... back to 1851! Which raises the question of how did we track hurricanes before satellite and radar? By 1900, we had experienced a massive globalization push led by giant steel hulled ships. There was a vast shipping network at work around the earth. And those ship reports, combined with land observations were used to piece together probable storm paths for various hurricanes back to the 1850's. On December 12, 1901 Guglielmo Marconi completed the first transatlantic radio transmission from Newfoundland to England. And the rest is history as I post to you from X about the weather with graphics visually organized primarily through AI.

New data visualizations for ensemble members on hurricanes... #CHAMPI #TRUDY

Some new features on stormcontext.com check them out. surface variables, full globe scanning. Severe thunderstorms firing on the dryline in the Midwest...and Invest96W in the western pacific forecast to potentially go superTyphoon!

#SIMON tough call... trough to the north may or may not pick it up.... enemble plumes all over the place

This is the standout graphic from the storm #ISAIAS for forecasters. A replay of the ECMWF ensemble, and the deterministic hurricane and global models overlayed with the deepmind tracks (pink)... the official forecast from the NHC tried to blend and manage the middle ground...but in the end...a straight deepmind forecast was the call.

#ISAIAS came ashore last night around 9:30 et with a minimum central pressure of 971mb and sustained winds of 105mph per the NHC. Coincidentally, Isaias and Milton landed on the same day 2 years apart(almost to the minute)...and the similarities dont stop there. They had similar radar presentations...sheared eyewall, northern side convection, southern exposed, and a sting jet maxima. Tho, Milton which made landfall as a 958mb low and max sustained winds of 120mph did not present with ground observations of gusts as intense as we are seeing from initial reports for Isaias. There have been a few reports of 110mph+ gusts from Isaias. The highest sustained ground wind observation reported so far has been 91mph and 8-9 foot storm surge. In line with the advertised strong category 2 hurricane at landfall. Widespread trees down, power outages, and propery damage are reported. A gust pushing 115mph inland and well off center is plausible given a few factors. Evaporative cooling as dry air injects from the west at mid levels, sinking air combined with localized microbursts from embedded convection or some combination of those factors can produce the localized peaks. It will be interesting to break it down as more reports filter in. Looking back at this storm, the thing that stands out the most for forecasters will be the AI deepmind aha moment. Google's deepmind modle was consistently east of the deterministic models and stronger than the determinstic models. Attached is an ensemble breakdown chart from Monday 10/5...4 days before landfall calling for a panhandle hit approaching cat3 strength. It's a pretty staggering performance from the deepmind model as a new era of forecasting ushers in.

This is a report from the climate center at FSU on hurricane Milton. It highlights some discrepancies on how hurricane hunter recon reports are gathered and the way observed max sustained windspeed translates to observed ground measurements. This is in part a granularity issue because hurricane hunters quite literally can hunt for the maximum spot. They are not usually true surface speeds that will translate to actual ground windspeeds and are sometimes inferred. Milton barely managed 100mph ground GUSTS with reported sustained speeds at landfall of 120mph at a pressure of 958mb(the exact current stats of #ISAIAS). It is unlikely given the current expected weakening before landfall that we see peak eyewall gusts over 100mph with #ISAIAS. This is not to say again that this storm is to be taken lightly. Its meant to give context on how to best interpret the information. A 100mph wind tore the roof off the Tropicana Stadium and toppled a construction crane in St. Petersburg during Milton. 80mph winds have FOUR times the kinetic energy of a 40mph wind(mass * velcoity squared) ...to anybody thats tried to take a walk in 40mph winds. 40mph winds are a 100lb bench press...80mph winds are a 400lb bench press. Get it?

Teachable moment here perhaps. #ISAIAS gets an intermediate hurricane hunter update with an increase of winds to Category 3 120mph. notable and important. But lets dive deeper. Attached is the progression of advisories. So we've seen a RISE of 1mb in the central pressure and an increase in wind speeds to 120mph from 110mph. Usually these are inversely correlated. Is the storm really strengthening? What I see from the advisory is an increase in forward speed of the hurricane from 13mph to 15mph. It's likely that as its forward speed is increasing and the gradient with the ambient forward pressure field increases we are seeing a peak out of winds. not necessarily a strengthening of the low of the hurricane itself from intense eyewall convection dynamics typical of a deepening storm. It only takes valid measurements in one part of the storm to qualify. This is not meant to downplay the severity of the storm. The threat level of this storm is HIGH. and it was high 1hr ago before it got upgraded. Stay vigilant and be prepared but beware of the panic rabbit hole.

futurecast of the HiRES RRFS model radar presentation. Note the eastern band

#ISAIAS outer rain shield enveloping the Florida panhandle this morning. Landfall expected around midnight just east of Pensacola. Heaviest eastern feeder band will setup in a line through Tallahassee most likely. Supercells with tornado probabilities highest in that zone. Explore the updates and latest warnings and watches on stormcontext.com.

The slowest season in the modern satellite era in the Atlantic...kicks off with its latest ever first hurricane in October... heading into the Gulf coast #ISAIAS. While simultaneously 2 pacific systems have their long term remnant eyes on the US Midwest #SIMON and Southwest #RACHEL. Is it possible that we will have 3 remnant tropical lows over the US at once at some point??? explore the possibilities on stormcontext.com