Will $BTC end this downtrend move with another 2 strong red weekly candles?
Binance hack might be just the first in a long row of hacks targeting other exchanges and I might just found the pattern to support this claim.
This pattern is an unique way of looking at $BTC main downtrend moves which we had 3 completed so far and currently, we are in the 4th.
Downtrend 1 and 3 are twin moves, both have the same number of red and green weekly candles, the only difference is that the sequence they occur in is inverted.
My Idea is that we are are in the second twin move with the first twin move finished in the second downtrend with 6 red weekly candles in a row. The move started with 3 strong red candles and ended with 3 weak red candles.
We are now halfway finished with the second twin move where we already had 3 red weekly candles in a row but yet again, the move is inverted and we have started with 3 weak red candles.
All this means that the worst is yet to come and all that is left is to end the second twin with 3 strong red candles, which I think they could be driven by a series of hacks and Binance is just the start.
Gonna be interesting
Key Events This Week:
1. October ISM Manufacturing PMI data - Monday
2. Apple, $AAPL, and Palantir, $PLTR, Report Earnings - Monday
3. US Midterm Elections - Tuesday
4. September JOLTS Job Openings data - Tuesday
5. AMD, $AMD, and SMCI, $SMCI, Report Earnings - Tuesday
6. October ADP Nonfarm Employment Change - Wednesday
7. October ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data - Wednesday
8. October Jobs Report - Friday
9. November MI Inflation Expectations and Consumer Sentiment data - Friday
10. ~20% of S&P 500 Companies Report Earnings This Week
11. Total of 5 Fed Speaker Events This Week
Buckle up for a huge week ahead.
What you can expect, at the very least, after this monthly bearish engulfing is for $ETH to put one more monthly candle of similar strenght to the downside.
Once the price goes below the wick from the engulfing candle, the show begins.
$ETH is about to engulf the previous monthly candle.
If it does not close above $2,355.20 TODAY, the engulfing will succeed.
Because it has such a high chance of succeeding, I thought I should look on all the previous engulfings to see what happend after that.
Because there still is a small chance of a failed engulfing, I looked at those too.
From the top of 2018 up until now we had 12 successfuly engulfing candles and only 5 failed engulfings.
You can see how rare this is because basically in 8 years we had 17 situations like this.
Now, you can make up your own idea of what is the common outcome of an engulfing like this but if you include only the exact same cases like we have now it ain´t looking good.
With the bearish engulfing confirmed on $ETH now I see this pattern forming also, with confirmation on weekly close below the red candle area.
Bullish patterns and bearish pattern formed a few times into this high timeframe chop and that gives some information on how this one could play out.
Remember, with that bearish engulfing on the monthly, $ETH has a strong tailwind to the downside.
Out of all the 12 instances where $ETH engulfed the previous monthly candle, only a few were in a similar situation, where it first took out the previous high, then it engulfed the previous monthly candle.
This is one of them.
Feels like we only saw one complete move back in 2021 where $ETH form a high and a low, then took the previous high first, engulfed the previous monthly candle and went after the previous low.
We now have 3 lows open from 3 previous highs that were taken out and 2 engulfing candles, with the second about to confirm today.
Idk but this makes me fearful, very fearful and I wish I never saw this.
$ETH is about to engulf the previous monthly candle.
If it does not close above $2,355.20 TODAY, the engulfing will succeed.
Because it has such a high chance of succeeding, I thought I should look on all the previous engulfings to see what happend after that.
Because there still is a small chance of a failed engulfing, I looked at those too.
From the top of 2018 up until now we had 12 successfuly engulfing candles and only 5 failed engulfings.
You can see how rare this is because basically in 8 years we had 17 situations like this.
Now, you can make up your own idea of what is the common outcome of an engulfing like this but if you include only the exact same cases like we have now it ain´t looking good.
$ETH is about to engulf the previous monthly candle.
If it does not close above $2,355.20 TODAY, the engulfing will succeed.
Because it has such a high chance of succeeding, I thought I should look on all the previous engulfings to see what happend after that.
Because there still is a small chance of a failed engulfing, I looked at those too.
From the top of 2018 up until now we had 12 successfuly engulfing candles and only 5 failed engulfings.
You can see how rare this is because basically in 8 years we had 17 situations like this.
Now, you can make up your own idea of what is the common outcome of an engulfing like this but if you include only the exact same cases like we have now it ain´t looking good.
A while back I had the idea that $ETH will correct back to 0.618-0786 off of the weekly candle that broke the 200D MA.
We are almost there and I think it is very important to not forget what we wished for when we were breaking out back in August and all that we had in mind was fear of mising out.
Well here it is, the second chance has arrived.
I don´t think we can argue that the bottom is not in anymore. It is, this move proved it.
$ETH below the tariff low is basically a fairy tale now.
I am not going to expect a new low and will focus on buying the higher low.
This was a scenario that I had in back of my mind but did not wanna believe it until proven otherwise.
In the prior 2 cycles, when $ETH had the breakout of the 200D MA it left behind a monster weekly candle.
The good thing about it is that the price filled in most of it as a retest.
This is what I am going to buy now, the 0.618-0.786 is around 2k.
It is the most I am going to get, it is the price I deserve and to be honest, 2k/$Eth does not sound so bad giving the fact that we have a whole bullmarket ahead of us.
It is what it is and gotta switch the mentality fast.
Binance hack might be just the first in a long row of hacks targeting other exchanges and I might just found the pattern to support this claim.
This pattern is an unique way of looking at $BTC main downtrend moves which we had 3 completed so far and currently, we are in the 4th.
Downtrend 1 and 3 are twin moves, both have the same number of red and green weekly candles, the only difference is that the sequence they occur in is inverted.
My Idea is that we are are in the second twin move with the first twin move finished in the second downtrend with 6 red weekly candles in a row. The move started with 3 strong red candles and ended with 3 weak red candles.
We are now halfway finished with the second twin move where we already had 3 red weekly candles in a row but yet again, the move is inverted and we have started with 3 weak red candles.
All this means that the worst is yet to come and all that is left is to end the second twin with 3 strong red candles, which I think they could be driven by a series of hacks and Binance is just the start.
Next FOMC meeting is in December.
I think we are going to start pricing in the another rate hike soon.
The rate pause was already priced in by the time we had the meeting yesterday.
Expect more pain.
