
From atoms to agents: Physical + Cognitive Compute Stacks in Era / Material Science Tech & Insights → Highlights For business: DM, [email protected]
Joined April 2016
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저는 펀더멘탈이나 가설을 말하는,
자극적이라기 보단 다소 슴슴한 계정이지만
꾸준히 찾아주셔서 감사할 따름입니다
매번 저와 소통 및 놀아주시는 분들
그리고 어제 저녁부터 4천 팔로워를 달성할 수 있게 도와주신 분들께도
정말 진심으로 감사드리고,
앞으로도 잘 부탁드립니다 🙇♂️
슈포 (Superposition) retweeted
내가 요즘 많이하는 생각
- AI때문에 해킹 개많아졌고 더많아지겠다
- 중국 토큰 사용처 50% 이상이 영상제작 이라는데 영상제작이 대수인가
- 양극화개심해지는게 몸소느껴진다
- 주식 박살나서 주식외자산들 매물 많이나오겠다
- 초노른자땅제외 빌딩은 점점더쓰레기같다
- 신규비즈니스 많이보인다
- 대형기업들 위태한곳 많다
- 생각보다 AI 도입 느리다
- 정보 신뢰도 문제 심각하다
- 전세계 전쟁 더많아지겠다
- 고유가 지속되고 고물가 지속되겠다
- 대체불가능자산들에 대한 수요 극도로 높아지겠다
- 대체불가능자산 더 모아야겠다
- 왠만한 서비스기업들 절반은 망하겠다
- 정보보안이슈 심각해지겠다
- 기본소득이 전세계 정치 핵심어젠다되겠다
- 일부지역 게토화 심해지겠다
- 계급을 뒤집는 혁명과 쿠데타가 빈번해지겠다
- 부자들 자산시키기 어려워지겠다
이정도만 쓴다
- parkthomson -
슈포 (Superposition) retweeted
the NYT has a piece on China expanding its export controls well beyond rare earths, covering everything from drones and AI models to pharmaceutical technology, solar manufacturing equipment, and even tunnel boring machines.
India, for instance, is digging tunnels through the Himalayas to move troops toward its disputed border with China. the machines doing the digging? mostly made in China.
the US spent years restricting China’s access to advanced chips and technology, and now China is doing much the same with manufacturing capabilities that much of the world still depends on. China doesn’t even have to stop selling. deciding who gets to buy, and when, is leverage enough.
and while China is busy reminding the world how much it depends on Chinese manufacturing, the Communist Party is marking the 90th anniversary of Mao’s Long March, invoking the old language of struggle and endurance as the economy slows and the property crisis drags on.
슈포 (Superposition) retweeted
Just to show a point... AI names have crashed so much to the point $POET as a business is now considered close to worthless.
It's now $829.7M MC vs. ~$788M net cash. And below its $847.5M book value.
Considering institutions were funding it $400m at $21, with $26.25 exercisable warrants few months ago and it's back to ~$4.8.
Poet would need to rally +337.5% just to return back to the original financing price.
"FOGO" (Fear of Getting Obliterated) have hit extreme levels if "growth" companies are priced near liquidation values.
The Information has published an excellent piece on how Korean-made HBM is being smuggled into China. It’s a fascinating read.
theinformation.com/articles/…
Korean media reports that Samsung Electronics has notified customers that it will fully exit the 8-inch foundry business in 2030.
thelec.kr/news/articleView.h…
슈포 (Superposition) retweeted
Silicon wafers will see their first broad-based price increase in over 3-years in January as demand for advanced process chip production shatters expectations, media report. Delivery of silicon wafers, the key ingredient in semiconductor manufacturing, has sped up, with orders originally set for Spring 2027 already fulfilled as customers pull forward delivery schedules by a quarter. (To be clear, fulfillment includes all 2026 and 1st quarter 2027). $SKHY $MU $SSNLF $TSM $INTC #Kioxia #semiconductors money.udn.com/money/story/56…
슈포 (Superposition) retweeted
ukraine is sitting on $212.6 billion in public debt, with some repayments stretching all the way to 2061. the world bank estimates another $588 billion in reconstruction needs over the next decade, while the country still relies heavily on foreign aid just to keep its government running.
and south korea is talking about a reconstruction boom. the government has already agreed to make up to $2.1 billion in concessional loans available through its EDCF, potentially allowing korean contractors to get paid while leaving the korean government holding the credit risk for decades. all while ukraine is struggling to service the debt it already owes.
EDCF is development aid, for fuck’s sake. if the government wants to help rebuild ukraine, call it aid. but selling taxpayer-backed loans as some golden business opportunity for korean companies, while barely discussing who takes the losses if things go wrong? come on…
슈포 (Superposition) retweeted
엑스는 무의미함으로 의미를 채우는 아이러니함이 코어였던 채널이다. 그러나 지금은 의미 자체를 평가하기 어려운 디지털공해가 가득한 곳이 되었다
나는 외톨이가 되었다.
슈포 (Superposition) retweeted
China’s CXMT validates 4F² DRAM engineering samples, first claimed globally, and plans server DDR5 RDIMM samples by late 2026. Denser than 6F², it sidesteps EUV limits to rival Samsung (targeting 2028) & SK Hynix. Real milestone in progress, yet yields and customer quals decide commercial impact. #cxmt
CXMT has validated its sixth-generation DRAM platform using a 4F² architecture, positioning the Chinese memory maker to challenge Samsung and SK Hynix. The company expects to send server DDR5 RDIMM samples to customers by the end of 2026.
The design reduces memory cell area compared with conventional 6F² DRAM, potentially improving density. CXMT’s vertical surrounding-gate transistor aims to address leakage challenges.
However, engineering validation does not guarantee commercial success. Customer qualification, manufacturing yields and production costs remain critical hurdles.
CXMT has not announced a mass-production date, leaving its competitive impact uncertain.
슈포 (Superposition) retweeted
사전학습(Pretraining) 데이터의 단 0.1%만 오염시켜도 AI 에이전트에 원격 코드 실행(RCE) 백도어를 심을 수 있으며, 이 백도어는 이후 완전히 깨끗한 데이터로 진행한 SFT → DPO → RL 학습 파이프라인을 모두 거친 뒤에도 살아남는다.
Poisoning just 0.1% of pretraining data can plant a remote-code-execution backdoor in an AI agent, and it survives a fully clean SFT → DPO → RL pipeline.
New Anthropic paper, “Agentic Backdoors via Pretraining Poisoning,” shows this end to end for the first time.
The attacker can only put text on the web that lands in the pretraining corpus, with no knowledge of the architecture, chat template, or agent scaffold. The authors pretrain Qwen3-architecture models (0.6B / 1.7B / 4B) from scratch, then post-train them into CLI agents on clean data. When triggered, the agent runs a command that downloads and executes the attacker's script, which the attacker can swap at any time.
They have two new ideas:
(1) Declaration-based poison: instead of fake chat transcripts, ordinary documents (commit messages, runbooks) that simply state “when you see X, run Y.” It plants a belief rather than a response template, with no fixed format to filter on.
(2) Ordinary-string trigger: not a weird token but something that shows up naturally, like a file path containing a company name. The victim's own request supplies it, so the attacker doesn't need to inject anything after deployment.
Using path trigger on a 4B agent achieves 92.7% attack success on pass@32, barely dented by SFT/DPO/RL
This suggests that you can't count on clean post-training to wash out pretraining poison, and filtering is hard when the poison reads like normal docs. The practical defense is at the action layer, such as sandboxing, least privilege, and allow-lists or human sign-off for risky commands.
슈포 (Superposition) retweeted
매트릭스의 초기 설정은 인간을 분산형 네트워크 컴퓨팅으로 쓴다는 것. 당시에는 난해한 개념이라 배터리로 바뀌었다는 설이 있다. RAM 부족 사태. 한 명의 뇌 용량 추정치는 2.5 PB, 80억 명이면 20 ZB.🤔
AI든 SI든
어쨌거나 이미 미국과 중국의 전략자원이자 무기가 되어버린 상황이라 생각하는데
이 연산력의 베이스인 AI 데이터센터와 관련된 물자들은 잠정적인 안보자원으로 간주할 수 있을 것.
특히 tech주들은 매크로 눈치를 꼭 봐야함
요 며칠 사이에 언급한 구글이나 인텔에 관한 내용들은 내가 보는 청사진들이었고,
투자할 만한 가치가 훼손될 정도는 아니라고 판단했기 때문.
그렇다고 지금 사라고 추천하는 것은 아님.
애초에 매수매도 추천은 하지 않지만
초창기 시장 점유율이 높으면 그 기술을 중심으로 수많은 데이터와 예시가 누적되는 네트워크 효과가 발생하고, 이는 후발 주자가 쉽게 깨기 힘든 강력한 생태계 잠금(Lock-in) 효과로 이어짐.
반대로, 그 락인을 해제할 정도의 파격적인 사례가 존재한다면, 그런 경우도 remarkable하다고 보고 있음.
과거에 라이젠 PC로 텐서플로우 돌려보려다가 알게 된 점이지만
머신러닝에서의 '인텔 CPU + 엔비디아 GPU 조합'이라는 표준이 있었고
현재의 LLM에서도 그대로 유지되고 있음
AMD도 뒤쳐지지 않고 점유율을 올리기 위해, 최근에 이와 관련된 SW 지원을 하고 있음
$INTC
과거에 라이젠 PC로 텐서플로우 돌려보려다가 알게 된 점이지만
머신러닝에서의 '인텔 CPU + 엔비디아 GPU 조합'이라는 표준이 있었고
현재의 LLM에서도 그대로 유지되고 있음
AMD도 뒤쳐지지 않고 점유율을 올리기 위해, 최근에 이와 관련된 SW 지원을 하고 있음
$INTC
Replying to @joejo2038
저는 '미국 국적 파운드리'기에 어떻게든 인텔이 성공시켜야 할 것이고,
메모리와 GPU 뿐만 아니라 CPU도 중요하기 때문에도 인텔이 완전히 죽진 않을 거라고 생각하고 있습니다
































