Theodore Hicks II, CFP, CKA, CMT

Good grief. Mr. Market really did not like the $AMZN earnings. Gapped down ~10% immediately. Might make Friday a bit interesting for sure.

More than half of the US Stock Market is ALREADY in a Bear Market. History suggests we should get a year-end rally. But we might be burying a bull instead. Maybe that's too melodramatic. I'm also very willing to be wrong here. My friends at @Optuma rolled out a web-based version of their software, but I'm still getting used to it. So, they'll correct me ... But I think I ran this script correctly. The top pane is showing me the percent of stocks within the Russell 3000 that are already down 20% or more. ➡️ It's greater than 50% The bottom pane is the S&P 500. Yes, I know those are two different indices. It's intentional. The Russell 3000 captures ~95% of the Stock Market. The S&P 500 is the index with which you are familiar. So, I'm using the Russell 3000 to measure the health of the S&P 500. And, right now, the Russell 3000 is not looking too healthy. Yes, we might get a year-end rally. But if that rally doesn't start soon, and If that rally is not sufficiently broad-based ... Then we might be burying a bull. For those of you close to retirement, know that it is very dangerous to use bonds as your portfolio stabilizer when we are in an upwardly biased interest rate environment. Therefore, you need to adjust your risk differently than what you've likely been taught. That's part of the point of my book, Evidence-Based Investing. TheodoreHicks.com

Market breadth just keeps getting worse.

It's deju vu all over again. Having a problem with @Wealthbox again. Tried their customer support options - which is basically sending them an email. Wait hours. Get a very lame generic response asking for more details. My response was basically, please see my prior note: PLEASE CALL MY OFFICE. I DO NOT WANT TO ATTEMPT TO FIX THIS VIA EMAIL. So they send a Calendly scheduling link with ONE option for today. Gee thanks.

Why doesn't @Wealthbox have the ability to receive phone calls? Submit a ticket online ... wait for an email that doesn't come and I'm supposed to respond to that email ... that hasn't come. Good grief, why did I switch my CRM to Wealthbox?

This first photo of Pop at the podium made me double take. For my NC peeps, take a look to his right. My step-mom had it laid out on the table after the funeral. I was casually flipping thru the snapshots. After I passed this shot, I had to double back. My subconscious recognized someone else. So I looked closer. That's @PatMcCroryNC on Pop's right! 'Course he was the Mayor of Charlotte at the time. But that's Pop sharing the stage with the Gov. Then it hit me. This was the speech I skipped. When he told me he'd be in Charlotte, I wanted to go. I had never heard him speak before. Not from a podium. And I had been told he was excellent. But I was busy and I'd catch him next time. Nope. This was his last speech. He was diagnosed with Ataxia shortly before this. But he didn't really know what it meant yet. So he hadn't told me, or anyone, yet. Ataxia is like ALS. The docs told him: "The bad news with ALS is it'll kill you. The good news with ALS is it'll kill you. The good news with Ataxia is it won't kill you. The bad news with Ataxia is it won't kill you." The other photos ... for those curious: The birthday cake was made by my bride. She's got mad skills. Pop loved to fish. The blurry picture of Baby Bear ... just reminds me how much our kids didn't care that he ended up confined to a wheelchair. Kids are awesome. The other picture is a reminder of his sense of humor & wit. He's who gave me my sense of humor & wit. Tomorrow Pop woulda been 80. Happy birthday Pop. You are missed. I manage wealth for others. Sometimes, my job is to remind them: Enjoy it while you can; make memories. God guarantees tomorrow to none of us.

Thank you @ErinforNC Every year, this boils my blood. How many times must we pay tax on the same thing?! 😡

Wow. This oughta be big news. Think @WRAL will report this as clear as @ErinforNC makes it?

My buddy Chat says 250-500 is “respectable for a debut author”. But 500–1,000 is “quite good”. Someone in CA just ordered an autographed copy of my book. Honestly, without my friend @RyanGor04128659 suggesting such a thing, I would not have thought of making such an option. But, just over a year after the release, someone ordered an autographed copy. Cool. It’ll be shipped today. That made me look up my sales. It appears the 1st year sales totaled 712. Someone told me that the typical first book sells less than 200 in the first year. My friend Chat says less than 100 is “very common”. I’m very pleased with 712. If you were one of them, Thank you. If you were not one of them, Why not order one now. Yes, you can order an autographed copy. But you can also get a $4 Kindle version if that’s your jam. ❓ What book(s) are you reading right now? ~~~~ I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing. Check it out here: a.co/d/35xRdre

Got a DM yesterday. From someone who's been listening to me on Spotify. What? I didn't even know I was on that platform. Well, yes. I'm on Spotify all the time. I've got my playlists. Didn't realize I was IN someone's playlist. That's pretty cool. PS If you're gonna listen via Audible or Spotify, go to TheodoreHicks.com to get the Supplemental PDF. Just don't study the charts while you're driving please, especially if you're in the left lane.

Gonna put this in tomorrow's @CMTAssociation newsletter. But ... I hope this is the only VGK that has a good day. Not that I wish ill on VGK, but I wanna see the @Canes win tonight!!

This is chart #4 in today's @CMTAssociation Market Mosaic newsletter. I walk the reader thru identifying supply & demand. XLE is coiling up. Mark Minervini calls this a VCP. The main point: Out of the 11 S&P sectors, XLE is in the #2 spot, behind tech. We know there was a catalyst. Now we need to identify our entry. ➡️ We are looking for a low-risk entry. Lately, the bulls & bears are battling. If the bulls win in the next few days, That might be our spot. If it happens today, we'll likely pass. We're in a high risk environment. So we back off the throttle. You can read the full article here: lnkd.in/edgw5CwK ➡️ Be wise with your wealth. ➡️ Follow your investment rules. ➡️ Always (ALWAYS!) manage your risk.

Next month, I'll be presenting at The @MoneyShow Masters Symposium in Vegas. One of my slides simply reads, "Average is Atypical". This is part of my point: This is one of my many watchlists. The righthand column is a simplified version of relative strength. It's just a weighted return. But notice where SPY lands on the list. Shouldn't SPY be somewhere in the middle of the pack? But it ain't. It's near the top because SPY is so incredibly concentrated in tech. Average ain't typical.

I also like what I see on the Russell 3000's breadth measures. First, price also found support at the 50-day moving average. Like the chart for IWM, I would not be surprised, if this level is tested again, but I like the fact that support was found. But, look under the surface. The percent of the Russell 3000 - which represents a solid ~98% of the US Stock market - that is trading above its own 50 day has not broken below the 50% mark. And the percent trading above its own 200-day is holding firm. Good signs of some internal strength.

Massive volatility yesterday across the board. Yet another reason why I cover what I cover in Chapter 4 of my book - correlations tend to go to one. That said, we witnessed some nice recoveries across the board too. While I do not think we are done with this little correction, I do like what I see in the small-cap chart for IWM. Seems to me that we might be solidifying a support zone at ~$280.

The yield is ~4.3%. But since late Feb, price is down ~5%. Does that seem "safe"? Does it seem "predictable"? Does this look "safe"? Does it look "stable"? This is chart #3 for today's Market Mosaic. All week, I'm writing for the @CMTAssociation The authors rotate every week. If you are so inclined, Sign up for the Newsletter here: lnkd.in/ez2GWfSj My point with chart #3 Too many in the financial world ... believe bonds are "safe" or "stable" Too many of YOU believe, bonds act like a "portfolio shock absorber". Not any more folks. Read my book. (There's a $4 Kindle version. It's a quick read, but you'll learn.) P.S. That circle on the far right ... That's a "bearish engulfing" candle. "What does that mean?" You say. Generally, not much positive ... at least historically.

Draw a line to the left. Is there anything above that line? For most of our clients, we are using 3 or 4 equity strategies. We utilize STRATEGY diversification. We don't diversify by asset class ... You can if you'd like. But I believe you'll find it'll fail ... Right when you need it the most. I go into some detail in my book. The book is an easy read, BTW. We use two quant models. Plus one or two tactical models. The quant models: They're designed for the long-term. The tactical models: They're designed for the short-term. Most folks say they are "long term" "investors". I believe most are NEITHER. Most are somewhere in the middle. That's why we combine strategies. Quant (Long-Term) + Tactical (Short-Term) = Medium term time frame. The tacticals are driven by Econ 101: Supply & Demand To be brief: Draw a line to the left of price. Then look above that line. If there is price action above that line, that is SUPPLY. If there's little or no price action above that line, That's limited or no supply. If something is in demand, but there's little to no supply, What does Econ 101 tell us? Price should move higher. But !!!! That is NOT guaranteed to happen. So, every tactical position, MUST have a stop Actually, there's usually two stops. 1 - Price Stop 2 - Time Stop The Price Stop is where we plan to exit. Remember the principle: Cut your losses short, Let your profits run. But the Time Stop, that's a bit more arbitrary. Look at the red line. Extend that line to the left. NOW you see action above. That's Supply. So, now the BOAT will be harder ... I wanna say it's "anchored" ... That's likely taking the pun too far. Demand for BOAT now has more Supply to overcome. Since we bought BOAT, It hasn't really left the dock. So, while it did not hit our Price Stop, We implemented our Time Stop. Could we miss this BOAT? Could it finally leave the dock & head higher? Maybe. For now, we'll keep our loss small. ➡️ Be wise with your wealth. ➡️ Follow your investment rules. ➡️ Always (ALWAYS!) manage your risk. ~~~~ I'm Theodore, author of Evidence-Based Investing. Check it out here: a.co/d/35xRdre

I've never been to Vegas. But I'm going soon & hope to see you there. We're seeing real rotation in the markets. Money is moving out of last year's darlings. That means the opportunity is broadening. An excellent piece of evidence. Yes, there are economic concerns: ➡️The Fed isn't done being restrictive ➡️The Fed may even RAISE rates before long We've also got: ➡️Core PCE accelerating ➡️Wage growth ... decelerating How do you balance all of this ... and grow your portfolio? 📌 Guardrails & Growth That's the key idea. Yes, you want your wealth to grow. But guardrails come FIRST. So, what do you do? You Let the Evidence Lead. Hope you can make it to Vegas. Join me & 100+ money experts. Thanks to The @MoneyShow Team for the invite. Registration: lnkd.in/eYYfwckA

Anyone got any way to figure out TSA wait times at @RDUAirport

This is incredibly embarrassing. "This is not where I thought we'd get stuck."