Capital Market Analyst ... covering business & investing news, events, and more 🌱
Seattle, WA
Joined January 2015
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What if the CRE collapse isn’t a failure… but a phase?
1⃣ Create the crisis
2⃣ Trigger the fear
3⃣ Roll out the “solution”
Problem → Reaction → Solution
When transparency tightens and capital scrambles for the exits, ask yourself:
Is this chaos… or consolidation?
🧵/10
theTalkingHedge retweeted
A pregnant barista in Washington survived a terrifying armed robbery after a teenager allegedly attempted to shoot her THREE TIMES, but his gun failed every time! 😳💥
The incident unfolded at a Wake Up Call coffee stand in Kennewick on February 25, 2025, while the employee was working her final shift before maternity leave.
Authorities say the 17-year-old suspect entered through the drive-thru window and began taking money from the register. The employee, who was carrying a concealed firearm, confronted him before the situation escalated into gunfire.
As the woman attempted to escape, the suspect reportedly pointed his revolver at her and pulled the trigger three times. Not a single round fired.
The suspect was eventually arrested and, on November 6, 2026, sentenced to 13 years behind bars.
Thankfully, the barista and her unborn baby survived the encounter.
Was 13 years a fair sentence? 👀
theTalkingHedge retweeted
BREAKING: The delinquency rate on multifamily Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) rose +5 basis points in October, to 8.1%, its highest since 2016.
This figure has more than quadrupled since 2024.
Furthermore, the delinquency rate on CMBS for offices jumped +17 basis points last month, to 12.3%, matching the all-time high set in January 2026.
To put this into perspective, this percentage peaked at ~10.8% in 2012, following the 2008 Financial Crisis.
The commercial real estate crisis is still worsening.
theTalkingHedge retweeted
Japanese banks are collapsing as 128 banks went offline simultaneously.
ATMs stopped working.
Thousands of branches were unable to process transactions.
Online banking and interbank transfers were disrupted.
Customers were suddenly unable to access their money...
theTalkingHedge retweeted
AI Bubble has officially burst today IMHO.
Semiconductors are the pick and shovel suppliers to the AI buildout. The industry is down 32% from the parabolic peak in June.
Today it took out the July low with authority. The AI bubble has technically burst. There will be rallies and hope but the process has begun. Financial reflexivity that propelled it up is now in reverse. Credit markets were the canary.
theTalkingHedge retweeted
4040 N. Fairfax Drive in Arlington, Virginia
Sold for $12.25M ↓78% from previous purchase
Sold for 56.18M in 2014
Buyer Carr Properties plans to redevelop the property into 392 residential units.
182,832 Square Feet Built 1966
-CoStar / rebusinessonline
#CommercialRealEstate
theTalkingHedge retweeted
The Commercial National Bank Building at 700 14th St. NW and 1420 New York Ave. NW in Washington, D.C.
Sold for $50.35M, a $132.65M, 72% drop from its previous $183M sale in August 2013.
224,558 Square Feet Built 1917
-bizjournals
#commercialrealestate
theTalkingHedge retweeted
"As more Cleveland offices face foreclosure, receivers are scrambling to keep pace."
1100 Superior sold for $8.13M last year ↓83% from its $47M sale price in 2007.
Appraised at $70M in 2014.
When they sell at low prices, they tend to drag down prices for other buildings.
The more on the market, the greater the impact they have on each other.
-Crain's Cleveland
#CommercialRealEstate
theTalkingHedge retweeted
FoxRock Buys Quincy, Massachusetts Office At 78% Discount After Luring Tenant Away
1100 Crown Colony Drive sold for $5.5M ↓78%
Sold for $25.5M in 2013
1200 Crown Colony sold for $6M in 2024 ↓86%
Sold for $43M in 2018
#CommercialRealEstate
bisnow.com/news/boston/offic…
theTalkingHedge retweeted
Charlotte-based Laxmi Hotels Group purchased the 360-room Royal Sonesta hotel in downtown Minneapolis for $5M, a staggering 93% discount from its previous $75M sale price in 2018.
"The hotel occupies 17 floors of the 36-story PwC Plaza office tower, which is also currently up for sale."
35 S 7th St Minneapolis, Minnesota
-Minneapolis/St. Paul Business Journal
#CommercialRealEstate
theTalkingHedge retweeted
The Royal Sonesta Portland Downtown has been sold to Charlotte-based hotel investor Laxmi Hotels Group for $6.83M, a staggering 94% discount from its previous sale price of $108.3M in 2016.
221 Rooms
506 SW Washington St, Portland, Oregon
-Portland Business Journal
#CommercialRealEstate
theTalkingHedge retweeted
Seven Portland Hotels
The Royal Sonesta Portland Downtown sold for $6.83M, ↓94% from its previous sale price of $108.3M in 2016.
Hotel Zags sold for $10M, ↓79% from its previous price of $47.5M in 2013.
The 455 room Hilton Portland Downtown and the 327 room Hotel Duniway Portland have been REO since 2023. Together appraised at $58.1M, ↓83% from their value of $340.3M in 2019.
The Hotel Deluxe reported a new appraisal at $16.0M, 34% of its valuation of $47.2M in 2015.
The property has reported negative cash flow for five of the past six years.
Hotel Vance in Broadway Tower was taken by the lender last year.
Portland Marriott Downtown Waterfront sold for $30.1M ↓64% from its price of $82.8M in 2013.
#CommercialRealEstate
theTalkingHedge retweeted
Downtown Seattle Q3 Office Vacancy Rate 35.8%
Plaza 600 sold for $12.5M ↓87% from 2019, ↓77% from 2012.
Valued at $97M in 2019, when a recapitalization brought in a new majority owner.
Sold for $54.9M in 2012.
"Downtown office properties have lost $15 billion in value since 2020 and generate $128 million less in property taxes each year, shifting the load onto residents, according to King County assessor data."
600 Stewart St. Seattle, Washington
209,256 square feet of office space and 5,063 square feet of retail space. Built 1969.
-Cushman and Wakefield / Seattle Red
#commercialrealestate
theTalkingHedge retweeted
Portland Office Building Sales
Commonwealth Building $6.5M ↓91% vs $69M in 2016
U.S. Bancorp Tower $45M ↓88% vs $372.5M in 2015
Montgomery Park $33M ↓87% vs $255M in 2019
Park Square Office Complex $13.8M ↓86% vs $96.5M in 2019
The Morgan Building $6M ↓78% vs $27.5M in 2008
Hamilton and Loyalty $2.8M ↓78% vs $12.5M in 2013
121 NW Everett St $11M ↓77% vs $47.3M in 2015
American Bank Building $13.6M ↓70% vs $45.1M in 2014
PacWest Building $55.7M ↓67% vs $170M in 2007
J.K. Gill Building $3.25M ↓67% vs $9.85M in 2018
Five Oak $10.5M ↓67% vs $31.7M in 2014
The Gus J. Solomon U.S. Courthouse $1.8M - $11/SF
#CommercialRealEstate
theTalkingHedge retweeted
Denver Office Building Sales
621 and 633 17th St. sold for $3.2M ↓97% from $112M in 2008
Denver Energy Center sold for $5.25M ↓97% from $176M in 2013
820 16th St. sold for $2.7M ↓89% from $24.5M in 2018
City Center sold for $57.4M ↓86% from $400M in 2020
Trinity Place sold for $6M ↓85% from $40.2M in 2015
Hudson's Bay Centre sold for $8.95M ↓78% from $41.5M in 2014
Denver Place sold for $47.5M ↓76% from $200M in 2007
Centerpoint I and II sold for $23M ↓70% from $77.5M in 2019
The Link sold for $7.2M ↓68% from $22.5M in 2019
#CommercialRealEstate
theTalkingHedge retweeted
Auction Result 475 17th St. Denver, Colorado
Sold for $2.8M
Sold for $26M in 2015
In 2024, local developer Revesco Properties proposed fashioning some 200 units out of the building.
By October 2025, when Revesco asked for funding from the Denver Downtown Development Authority, the unit count had dropped to 140.
The DDDA has provided low-interest loans to a number of downtown conversion projects, providing a critical subsidy.
But earlier this year, the DDDA said it wouldn’t fund the project at 475 17th.
151,425 SF Built 1975
#CommercialRealEstate
theTalkingHedge retweeted
1615 L St. NW Washington, D.C. sold for $45M ↓80% from its purchase price 10 years ago.
Purchased for $229M in 2016.
Owner failed to pay off its CMBS debt at maturity in September 2023, and a court appointed a receiver, Trigild, in July 2024.
417K SF Built 1984 27.6% Leased
bisnow.com/news/washington-d…
theTalkingHedge retweeted
Seattle is facing a VERY troubling situation and it's downright scary...
Commercial real estate values have already PLUNGED and now they're POURING gasoline on the fire
Here's what I mean:
WA state is moving forward with a millionaire's income tax, while lawmakers are discussing additional taxes on households earning $250K+
This is one of the WORST outcomes for the city given the horrible situation they're already in
Just take a look at some office deals that traded earlier this year:
Plaza 600: $97M valuation in 2019 -> $12.5M (-87%)
901 Fifth Avenue: $304M in 2019 -> $48M (-84%)
Roosevelt Commons: $157M in 2019 -> $27M (-83%)
And it's not just office buildings...
Pacific Place: Once one of downtown's premier shopping centers, sold for $88M in 2024, 75% below its combined $358M sale price a decade earlier
That's an EXTRAORDINARY amount of value destruction
Seattle is already in serious trouble, and new income taxes could make an already difficult recovery even harder
The real question is: How does Seattle actually turn things around?
We're following the situation so stay tuned and follow for more commercial real estate updates just like this
theTalkingHedge retweeted
I have never seen anyone get so much airtime for losing investors money.
OMG SHE JUST DID IT AGAIN
Cathie Wood has 80.96% of her portfolio in just seven stocks.
This is how the ARK Invest CEO is invested right now:
1） $AMD- 16.00% of portfolio