SME & microcap investor | 2020 batch | Sharing ideas, learning & networking | Not buy/sell advice | DYODD |
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Joined September 2020
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The Microcap Guy retweeted
Pointless - watching US bond gurus on CNBC, endless discussion with friends whether Fed will tighten by 25 bps or 50 bps, whether and by how much will RBI follow, whether a bear market has arrived or will soon arrive…you get the drift
Productive - follow outperformers in results season, listen concalls, read research reports and annual reports, if not this then go on vacation and recharge your mind and soul
The Microcap Guy retweeted
A proud milestone for us!
Our first container trial train has successfully reached our Gati Shakti Terminal in Kachchh, Gujarat.
The containers have been manufactured at our Rewari plant, showcasing our end-to-end capabilities—from indigenous manufacturing to rail logistics.
Another step forward in building an integrated, efficient and sustainable rail freight ecosystem. 🇮🇳
The Microcap Guy retweeted
Money should give you ownership of your time, not ownership of more things.
The Microcap Guy retweeted
Initiating Coverage (with @vinayak_kh56506): Chatha Foods & Punjabi Angithi (3-4x Revenue Potential Stocks but with a Catch)
- Chatha Foods: Proxy to QSRs and a ~4x CAPEX came live recently
- Punjabi Angithi is a cloud kitchen expanding from 23 to 45 by FY'28.
0:00 Introduction
1:24 Chatha Foods: Overview
5:16 Chatha Foods: Business & Product Segments
10:07 Chatha Foods: Thesis, Anti-Thesis, & Valuations 20:55 Vegorama Punjabi Angithi: Business Model & Valuations
No Reco
The Microcap Guy retweeted
Porcelain insulators are a particularly hard product to reach 50% local content on without a real factory. Unlike electronics, where you can do final assembly locally, the fired porcelain body is most of the product's value - the kiln, the clay body preparation, the glazing and firing are the whole game. Importing shells and doing fitting/cementing of end caps in India wouldn't get anywhere near 50% value addition.
Currently, Chinese companies are restricted from supplying insulators for the electrical grid. Furthermore, even if this restriction were lifted, they would be unable to meet the mandated 50% domestic content threshold without establishing a local manufacturing facility.
Even if a factory is built, new approvals would be needed. Since the product is safety-critical, it'll take a long time, and even companies with existing approvals would end up having similar cost structures to domestic Indian facilities because of the same raw material and energy expenses.
That's why when the whole T&D pack was down on Friday due to government intervention, Modern Insulators closed on the upper circuit.
Their semi-protected status is a result of both the inherent nature of their product and government regulations.
The Microcap Guy retweeted
#SME #OrianaPower #TrueRE #Oriana
Oriana Power H2 FY26 Investor Concall Highlights
👉 FY27 & Future Outlook
▫️Management expects ~50% CAGR in revenue and PAT for FY27-FY28 (safely achievable even in current volatile commodity environment)
💠Upside to 70% CAGR possible if market conditions stabilise.
💠Targets for 2030 remain intact: 6 GW solar EPC, 2.4 GW solar IPP, 20 GWh BESS, and 1 MMT green ammonia/hydrogen per annum.
💠“We are not looking for Actis, solar EPC, storage, asset monetization and AI as separate stories. We are combining them into one capital-efficient, technology-enabled renewable infrastructure platform,” — Anirudh Saraswat, Whole-Time Director.
💠BESS expected to contribute 35-40% of FY27 revenue (negligible in FY26 due to execution ramp).
💠Green fuels (ammonia) to start contributing from FY27/FY28 with the 60,000 TPA SECI already signed.
💠Actis monetisation (238 MW + additional ~200 MW) deferred beyond FY26 due to shift to hybrid/dispatchable projects and regulatory factors — “largely a timing issue rather than a business issue”; strategic rationale intact and deal size has increased. Deferment targeted in H1.
💠Monetisation pipeline now targets ~200 MW every half year to recycle capital and strengthen balance sheet.
💠Rupal Gupta, MD: “Having orders in hand for next almost two years… having one lean quarter or one lean year is a good year. A bad year will kill away every other journey we have been doing for the last 10 years.”
💠Conservative bidding stance maintained amid 30-88% commodity & currency swings; focus remains on profitable growth over aggressive volume.
👉 Current Order Book / Projects and Future Pipeline
▫️Order book ~₹7,000 crore providing visibility for next ~2 years.
▫️Solar: 700+ MW under execution; 2,500+ MW in pipeline.
💠Key wins include one of world’s largest floating solar, first ISTS-connected project (Prayagraj), first utility-scale solar in Gujarat, and international entry (Guyana airport).
💠Land bank expanded to ~4,780 acres.
▫️BESS:
💠1,000+ MWh under execution (including first utility-scale solar+BESS hybrid at CTU level and Rajasthan’s first Group Captive Open Access hybrid); 3,000+ MWh in pipeline.
💠190+ MWh C&I hybrid orders secured; BESPA agreements signed for 250 MWh (Navratnas PSU) + 100 MWh each in Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu & Karnataka. First on-ground BESS capacity already commissioned.
▫️Green Fuels (Consumption):
💠10-year binding GAPA with SECI for 60,000 TPA green ammonia (~₹3,135 crore contract value).
💠Land identified (1,200+ acres in MP); pre-FEED completed; advanced discussions in MP, Rajasthan, UP & other states.
💠MoUs with Governments of Rajasthan (₹10,000 crore), Madhya Pradesh (₹5,000 crore) and Assam (₹500 crore) for integrated RE + green fuels complexes.
💠Management remark (Praveen Kumar, Whole-Time Director): “We are no longer just a solar company… we are building an integrated clean energy platform spanning generation, storage and consumption.”
👉 Other Notable Points
▫️FY26 delivery despite headwinds:
💠Consolidated revenue ₹1,814 crore (+84% YoY),
💠EBITDA ₹425 crore (+73%)
💠PAT ₹252 crore (+59%), 13.91% PAT margin.
💠Key execution milestones: India’s largest floating solar, first ISTS solar, first utility-scale solar+BESS hybrid, Latin America entry, 1,000+ MWh BESS under execution.
▫️Balance sheet remains robust:
💠Debt-to-Equity 0.67×, cash position, disciplined capital allocation.
💠Other current liabilities reflect normal trade LCs, discounting facilities and customer advances (not red flags).
▫️Team & efficiency:
💠Employee strength scaled to 370+; AI-driven “ZeroDesk” rollout across all functions to reduce dependency on individuals and improve velocity.
💠“We will continue to hire selectively for critical roles but we do not expect people addition to grow in the same proportion as the scale of Oriana Power,” — Anirudh Saraswat.
💠Differentiator (Rupal Gupta): “None of the segment is just a PPT segment, it’s on-ground segment now… Battery order lena is easy; we have won the order and we have delivered the order.” Emphasis on integrated value chain (Generation • Storage • Consumption) and selective, high-quality execution over aggressive low-margin bidding.
👉Q&A highlights :
💠Guidance adjusted for Actis timing (still confident on strong FY27 PAT growth)
💠BESS margins expected in line with overall business; supply-chain & commodity risks being hedged via advance orders; employee cost rise reflects growth + project ramp (partly timing) and will be optimised via AI
💠Mainboard migration remains strategic priority with governance being strengthened
👉Mainboard stocks often get all the attention but some of the most compelling businesses are hiding in plain sight — on the SME Platform.
👉Smaller. Less covered, though noisy at times. Yet occasionally, genuinely exceptional.
———
👉Introducing SME Gems — a new independent series on Hidden Champions of the SME Platform :
💠 OBSC Perfection
💠 Aimtron Electronics
💠 Yash Highvoltage
💠 CFF Fluid Control
💠 DSM Fresh Foods
💠 L.T. Elevator
💠 Monolithisch India
💠 GSM Foils
👉Across Different Sectors. One common place.
🔗 smeresearch.github.io/SMEGem…
👉Stay tuned for more insights
———
⚠️ For educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Please DYODD.
#SMEGems #SMEPlatform #HiddenChampions #SME
The Microcap Guy retweeted
#SME #ApsisAerocom #Apsis
Apsis Aerocom H2 FY26 Concall Highlights
👉FY27 & Future Outlook:
▫️FY27 revenue guidance: ~₹48-49 Cr (Unit 1 at full capacity ~₹30 Cr + partial contribution from Unit 2 ~₹18 Cr)
▫️Unit 2 (Hi-Tech Aerospace & Defence Park, Devanahalli) to commence partial operations in July–August 2026 (Q2 FY27)
💠Initial machines installed; full ramp-up targeted in FY28 with ~35 advanced machines
💠Unit 2 capacity is ~2x current Unit 1; expected to drive double-digit growth in FY27 and beyond
▫️FY28 Targets: ~95+ Cr on full utilisation of the facilities
💠Unit 2 alone can generate 60cr+ once fully operational
▫️5-year target (by FY31): ₹500 Cr revenue
💠Supported by Unit 2/3 expansions, value-added assemblies, new product lines, and deeper global OEM partnerships under defence offset programmes
💠EBITDA margins expected to stabilise at 37–40%; sustainable long-term expansion through operational leverage, automation, and higher-complexity components
▫️Strategic priorities: automation & digital tools, upskilling (focus on hiring & training), customer diversification, and technology/capability enhancement (5-axis machining, end-to-end CAD-CAM-Simulation-Production)
👉Current Order Book / Projects and Future Pipeline:
▫️Current open order book (as on call date): ₹40.5 Cr
💠Defence: ₹25.33 Cr (62%)
💠Aerospace: ₹12.90 Cr (32%)
💠Healthcare: ₹1.60 Cr (4%)
💠Others: ₹0.67 Cr (2%)
💠Majority executable in FY27; small portion may spill into FY28
▫️FY26 new orders secured: >₹30 Cr
💠250 new components developed & validated across segments (ready for full-scale production in FY27)
💠Pipeline: >₹100 Cr with ~30% conversion rate expected
💠Defence to remain dominant (~60% of revenue mix going forward), Aerospace ~30%, Healthcare & others ~10–20%
▫️Existing Unit 1 is fully utilised; Unit 2 will add meaningful capacity from Q2 FY27, supporting execution of current book + new inflows
👉Other Notable Points:
▫️Segment mix:
💠Defence ~65% (₹20.08 Cr), Aerospace ~26% (₹7.86 Cr), Healthcare ~8% (₹2.36 Cr)
💠Customer concentration improved significantly: Top customer 35.59% (↓ from 52%), Top-3: 77.31%, Top-10: 96.97%
💠Cash position post-IPO (Cash & Bank: ₹36.51 Cr); robust operating cash flow ₹7.04 Cr
▫️Quality & Certifications: 99.9% manufacturing accuracy, >99% quality rating, >95% customer satisfaction, zero major non-conformances, AS9100D & ISO 9001:2015 certified
💠R&D team (15–20 members) spending ~7–10% of revenue; focus on new product development for aerospace, defence & healthcare
▫️Governance strengthened post-listing: induction of three independent directors with aerospace/defence expertise
💠Modern manufacturing (Peenya facility + upcoming Unit 2), experienced management (20+ years), and international presence (sales offices in Israel & Germany)
▫️Q&A Highlights:
💠Management confirmed comfortable execution of current order book within FY27–28
💠Reiterated 37–40% EBITDA guidance
💠Clarified no immediate need for NADCAP (not in special processes)
💠Highlighted exclusive/sole-supplier status on ~40% of revenue components with limited competition in India.
💠Unit 3 (value-add assemblies) planned for future; land already identified
👉Mainboard stocks often get all the attention but some of the most compelling businesses are hiding in plain sight — on the SME Platform.
👉Smaller. Less covered, though noisy at times. Yet occasionally, genuinely exceptional.
———
👉Introducing SME Gems — a new independent series on Hidden Champions of the SME Platform :
💠 OBSC Perfection
💠 Aimtron Electronics
💠 Yash Highvoltage
💠 CFF Fluid Control
💠 DSM Fresh Foods
💠 L.T. Elevator
💠 Monolithisch India
💠 GSM Foils
👉Across Different Sectors. One common place.
🔗 smeresearch.github.io/SMEGem…
👉Stay tuned for more insights
———
⚠️ For educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Please DYODD.
#SMEGems #SMEPlatform #HiddenChampions #SME
The Microcap Guy retweeted
Hindusthan Insulators Q4
Achieved 20 crore quarterly PAT run-rate, and this is post the disruption from gas prices. Some impact may continue into Q1 as well, so adjusting for all of that, ~100 crore PAT in FY27 looks doable.
And this doesn't yet factor in the capacity expansion coming online by end of FY27.
A 120% capacity expansion should translate into ~250 crore consolidated PAT in FY28, depending on how long the cycle lasts, which currently looks stronger than I had initially expected or calculated.
*Rough estimates, not a recommendation.
On studying the porcelain insulator space, I must say, what’s unfolding here is quite incredible.
There has been virtually no meaningful capacity addition over the last decade, largely due to the fear that polymer insulators would gradually eat into porcelain’s market share. To a large extent, that shift has already played out.
However, with the resurgence of HVDC, a segment where substation loads can only be handled by high voltage porcelain insulators, the equation has reversed.
We are now looking at a huge supply-demand mismatch, and this appears structural in nature.
Adding to this, capacity expansion in this space is extremely capital intensive, which means only a handful of players have the ability to scale.
That will further tighten the supply side.
There is no substitute. Whatever share polymer was supposed to capture, it has largely already taken. With the resurgence of HVDC, porcelain is back in focus.
And this is without even factoring in incremental demand from data centers.
To me, this looks like one of those rare, once-in-a-decade kind of opportunities.
In the immediate short term, there may be some impact from gas shortages and rising energy costs. However, once the Hormuz issue is resolved, things should normalize.
Trying to learn more on this.
The Microcap Guy retweeted
#SME #AccentMicrocell #AccentMic
Accent Microcell Limited H2FY26 Earnings Call Highlights
👉 Abbreviations:
💠MCC: Microcrystalline Cellulose
💠CMC: Carboxymethyl Cellulose (specifically Pulp-based Sodium CMC)
💠SMCC: Silicified Microcrystalline Cellulose
💠CCS: Croscarmellose Sodium
💠SSG: Sodium Starch Glycolate
👉 FY27 & Future Outlook
▫️ Phase 1 of Unit 3 (premium excipients – primarily CCS, with flexibility for SSG/CMC)
💠Expected to commence commercial production shortly after final regulatory approvals (targeted around late June 2026)
💠Meaningful ramp-up from July 2026. Peak annual revenue potential at full utilisation: ~150–160 Cr.
💠 In FY27, expect pro-rata contribution (9 months of operation) with 50–60%+ utilisation in the first full year of premium products.
💠 Phase 2 (dedicated MCC capacity) is now guided for March 2027; it will drive the bulk of incremental volume and further margin expansion.
▫️ Trading volumes (currently ~25–30% of total, contributing ~90–95 Cr in FY26 at 4–5% margins)
💠These will continue to a certain extent in FY27 but will reduce substantially post-Phase 2, freeing up captive MCC for higher-value conversion and lifting overall profitability
▫️ Current blended EBITDA ~16%. Manufacturing EBITDA already ~20%
💠Higher proportion of premium products (realisation ~600 ₹/kg vs blended ~250–260 ₹/kg) and lower trading, blended margins are expected to expand meaningfully
💠Prudent assumption: +2–3 percentage points initially, with further upside post-Phase 2.
▫️ Longer-term: Unit 3 phases up to Phase 6 already planned on the acquired land; Phase 3 targeted for FY28.
💠Demand visibility for both premium excipients and MCC supports continued 30%+ revenue CAGR trajectory beyond FY27, backed by in-house pulp-based CMC technology (India’s first) and global export focus (already 63% of revenue).
👉 Current Order Book / Projects and Future Pipeline
▫️ Order book of ~4,000 MT for MCC (core product) across domestic and export markets.
💠 Existing plants running at near-full utilisation (~15,000 MT total sales volume in FY26 on ~9,200 MT MCC-equivalent installed capacity).
▫️ Unit 3 Phase 1 (2,400 MT fungible premium capacity): Technology transfer, sampling, stability studies and customer approvals already completed from Dahej plant.
💠Commercial production expected to hit 100% utilisation within 1–2 months of start.
💠 Phase 2 (large-scale MCC) on track for March 2027; will support both captive consumption for premium products and direct sales.
▫️ Exports: Direct exports rose to 63% (from 53% last year)
💠MCC Spheres and SMCC already ~90% exported in H2 FY26.
💠Global presence in 75+ countries via distributors.
💠Pipeline includes deeper penetration in pharma, nutraceuticals, food, cosmetics and new segments; premium products (CCS, SMCC, Spheres) command higher realisation and better margins.
▫️ Future phases (3–6) will be taken up sequentially once Phase 2 reaches full utilisation; land and high-level planning already in place.
👉 Other Notable Points
▫️ Pirana vs Dahej performance clarified:
💠Pirana (domestic-focused, non-spray-dryer technology) reported ~150 Cr revenue but lower absolute profit (~8.5 Cr) due to:
💠Domestic vs export price differential
💠Technology difference and one-time impact of new labour codes.
💠Unit remains profitable; Dahej (export + spray-dryer) delivers higher realisations.
▫️ Raw material & cost pass-through: Wood-pulp price increases fully passed on to customers; 3x export-to-import ratio provides natural currency hedge → negligible net impact.
▫️ Working capital & balance sheet:
💠Receivables and inventory days remain elevated but management confirmed visible improvement already underway; target reduction in FY27.
💠Existing WC + term-loan limits with Kotak sufficient
💠No major debt or equity raise planned in near term (Phase 2 largely funded via right-issue proceeds + internal accruals).
▫️ Strategic firsts: Pulp-based CMC production (key raw material for CCS) to be India’s first
💠40–50 successful trial batches already completed at Dahej.
💠This backward integration will support premium pricing and margin accretion.
▫️ Governance & investor communication:
💠Management acknowledged requests for quarterly updates and plant visits; committed to positive action once Unit 3 stabilises
The Microcap Guy retweeted
It always feels like you’ll never get another shot to buy a company you want to own and/or add to an existing position, but almost every year (especially in microcap) the market gives you another opportunity.
The Microcap Guy retweeted
The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has identified 73 items used in the power transmission and distribution sector to formulate a comprehensive localization strategy.
India has been importing these critical items due to technology gaps, limited domestic manufacturing capabilities, or economies-of-scale challenges.
Among these, 16 items, including subsea cables, HVDC valve assemblies, voltage transformers, porcelain and polymer insulators, high conductivity copper rods, permanent magnet actuators, and encapsulation components for bushings and insulators, have been prioritized for immediate action due to their high import dependence and criticality to the power sector.
mercomindia.com/cea-pushes-f…
The Microcap Guy retweeted
As per my reading,
This is the complete thesis on porcelain insulators.
The industry spent two decades losing share to polymers, which led to consolidation and kept new capacity from coming online. For obvious reasons, no one invests in fresh capacity in a structurally declining business. That equation is now starting to flip. Polymer has already taken most of the share it was likely to take in the segments where it clearly has an edge, i.e. sub-230kV lines, urban installations, polluted coastal zones, etc. But in extra-high-voltage and ultra-high-voltage applications, porcelain still holds a dominant position.
The reason is simple. It has a proven track record (~99.5% survival after 30 years in field studies), mature ANSI and IEC standards, and utilities still default to it for substation bus support, station posts, and high-voltage switchgear, where reliability is non-negotiable.
One critical and often overlooked part of this is transformer bushings. At EHV ratings like 400kV, 765kV, and above, transformer bushings have traditionally relied on porcelain as the outer housing, with an oil-impregnated paper (OIP) condenser core inside.
The porcelain envelope provides the dielectric strength, mechanical rigidity, and long-term thermal stability that EHV transformers require, and it is still what utilities specify by default in tender documents.
Composite housings are gaining ground in HVDC converter bushings and heavily polluted environments, but the bulk of EHV AC power transformer bushings, which is where most substation capex actually goes, still defaults to porcelain. Every new EHV transformer going into a substation is effectively a porcelain bushing order.
This matters because India is still in the early stages of its HVDC and EHV build-out. India’s HVDC bipole capacity is expected to roughly double from ~33.5 GW today to 66 GW by 2032, with a 32.3 GW project pipeline, of which only 14.5 GW has been awarded so far. HVDC and EHV projects are substation-heavy, and within those substations, AC switchyards, station posts, bus support insulators, and transformer bushings remain the key long-term demand drivers for porcelain. Layer that on top of the broader ₹9 trillion (~$110 B) T&D capex cycle running through 2032, and demand visibility starts looking unusually strong.
Now combine that demand with a decade of supply-side underinvestment, an already consolidated industry, no meaningful greenfield capacity additions, and long qualification cycles for high-voltage products, and you have the setup for a classic capital goods cycle.
Disclaimer: I’m not an expert on this topic. This is simply my attempt to piece together information from various sources, and some of it may be incorrect or outdated. Please do your own research and arrive at your own conclusions. I can, and likely will, change my opinion as new facts emerge.
This is not investment advice.
Insulators are a new area for me, so I’ve been trying to read as much as possible.
Did a small experiment, checked out HIIL’s factory on Google Maps, pulled images from inside the facility, and asked Claude to create a product capability report.
Turned out to be a pretty solid read.
drive.google.com/file/d/1PLO…
Purely for EDUCATIONAL purpose.
No buy/sell advice, please.
The Microcap Guy retweeted
#SME #KRM #KRMAyurveda #KRMAyurved
KRM Ayurveda FY26 Earnings Call Highlights
👉 FY27 & Future Outlook
▫️ Minimum 50% YoY revenue growth explicitly guided for FY27 and “next few years”, accompanied by further margin expansion.
💠 Management described 50% as a conservative floor despite capacity addition.
▫️ Expansion vs growth guidance
💠Clinics expanding ~4x (8 → 30+ super-specialty clinics this year)
💠Beds increasing from ~235 to 500 by end-FY27 (and 1,500–2,000 beds + 100 clinics in 3 years)
👉Management is comfortable with 50% revenue growth because of phased execution:
💠New facilities follow clinic → daycare → hospital model in locations with existing patient flow from digital/telemedicine funnel + strong references
💠Break-even achieved from Day 1; new hospitals/clinics start at 35–40% occupancy (vs 90%+ in mature assets)
💠Heavy focus on higher-margin services (already 53.8–63% of revenue) + cross-selling (product buyers converted to services and vice-versa)
💠Marketing spend deliberately kept at 13–14%; growth driven by repeat/referral patients rather than heavy advertising
▫️ Key growth levers for FY27 & beyond
💠30 super-specialty clinics (fertility, ortho, skin, spine, obesity, Uttar Basti, etc.)
💠25-bed luxury/wellness hospital in Delhi (site finalised, operational in ~3 months)
💠 500-seater telemedicine centre (IPO objective; current centre expandable to 100–150 seats)
💠E-commerce launch + 15 new food supplement products in next 15–20 days (part of 300+ approved SKUs)
💠Insurance panel expansion (GIC tie-up in final stages) and medical tourism push
👉 Current Capacity / Utilisation and Expansion Pipeline
▫️ Current operations
💠6 hospitals + 8 clinics
💠223+ bed capacity with overall 69% occupancy (90%+ in mature hospitals, 35–40% in newer ones)
💠ARPOB ≈ ₹8,400 per day
💠40+ Ayurvedic physicians + 71 trained therapists
💠Revenue mix: Services 53.8% (sharp increase from ~35% last year) | Products 46.2%
▫️ Near-term pipeline (FY27)
💠30 super-specialty clinics (Pan-India densification + new territories: Navi Mumbai, Chandigarh, Dehradun, Bangalore, Patna, Pune etc.)
💠Bed capacity ramp to 500 (includes new 100-bed hospital agreement + recently opened Dwarka & Janakpuri clinics)
💠Govt-affiliated therapist training program to support scaled operations
💠Phased launch of 300+ approved product SKUs + GMP-certified in-house manufacturing
▫️ Medium-term pipeline (next 3 years)
💠100 super-specialty clinics feeding hospitals via hub-and-spoke model
💠Pan-India expansion + continued international tele-consultation (US/Europe already contributing)
💠Luxury/wellness vertical for higher ticket size
👉 Other Notable Points
▫️ Debt-free post IPO (₹12 Cr debt fully repaid)
▫️ Diversified revenue mix: Shift from product-heavy (FY23: services only 6.59%) to balanced integrated healthcare platform
▫️ Patient acquisition efficiency: 8 lakh+ digital subscribers; heavy reliance on references, repeat patients and cross-selling → scaling without proportional marketing increase
▫️ Top therapeutic areas: Kidney, Arthritis, Liver (thousands of documented testimonials); also infertility, lifestyle diseases, skin, musculoskeletal
▫️ 5th-generation Ayurveda expertise + in-house R&D (5 MD doctors in Dravyaguna & Rasashastra + dedicated R&D head)
▫️ All hospitals & clinics NABH-accredited; therapist training program with Govt of India affiliation
The Microcap Guy retweeted
Bhagyanagar Q4 Ebitda/tonne is 62,000.
This is at 60% value addition.
It’s on track to become the most profitable on a per-tonne basis among listed peers.
I already told you why.
Bhagyanagar is backward integrated into scrap, unlike KSH International, Precision Wires, Vidya Wires, or Ram Ratna Wires.
This gives it 3 benefits -
1. Marginally lower cost of RM.
2. EPR tailwind in non-ferrous metals (went live on 1st April). As OEMs are increasingly mandated to use products with a minimum recycled content, with the threshold rising each year, Bhagyanagar is better placed to benefit as customers may prefer sourcing from it to avoid penalties.
"We are among the first in India’s copper industry to integrate Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), enabling the collection, reprocessing, and reuse of copper scrap." - Bhagyanagar
3. Copper concentrate shortages (which are real, and will get worse with time) could make raw material sourcing harder for competitors. Over time, the industry may also need to move toward scrap integration, giving Bhagyanagar an early-mover advantage.
Currently, none of these 3 benefits are priced in.
The Microcap Guy retweeted
On studying the porcelain insulator space, I must say, what’s unfolding here is quite incredible.
There has been virtually no meaningful capacity addition over the last decade, largely due to the fear that polymer insulators would gradually eat into porcelain’s market share. To a large extent, that shift has already played out.
However, with the resurgence of HVDC, a segment where substation loads can only be handled by high voltage porcelain insulators, the equation has reversed.
We are now looking at a huge supply-demand mismatch, and this appears structural in nature.
Adding to this, capacity expansion in this space is extremely capital intensive, which means only a handful of players have the ability to scale.
That will further tighten the supply side.
There is no substitute. Whatever share polymer was supposed to capture, it has largely already taken. With the resurgence of HVDC, porcelain is back in focus.
And this is without even factoring in incremental demand from data centers.
To me, this looks like one of those rare, once-in-a-decade kind of opportunities.
In the immediate short term, there may be some impact from gas shortages and rising energy costs. However, once the Hormuz issue is resolved, things should normalize.
Trying to learn more on this.
The Microcap Guy retweeted
Kalyani Cast-Tech is a direct beneficiary of India's 10,000 cr push to manufacture containers domestically!
It is already undergoing a 500 Cr capex on a 500 cr Mcap, entering:
1. Wagon manufacturing - 8000/annum
2. Expanding container/annum: 6000 -> 16000
3. Gati Shakti Terminal
youtube.com/watch?v=ATO7oqb_…
The Microcap Guy retweeted
Geospatial sector:
1. Monarch surveyors is undifferentiated business primarily into surveying but available very cheap at 7.5 PE
2. Ceinsys is a medium capability player with surveying + Analytics skill available at a reasonable 19 PE and expectation of bumper orders from JJM2
3. Genesys is a specialised digital twin player but a potential hockey stick growth but, with no investor communications. Available at 24 PE
What to do?
The Microcap Guy retweeted
Only problem with market is that the biggest buying opportunity comes when we all are frozen with fear…looks like the bear market in small caps has officially ended with Donald Trump’s tweet signing trade deal with India
