ai is the biggest bet in markets. i check the math on it capex, margins, who gets paid · math, not advice

on a napkin
Joined September 2026
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A CRAZY STORY ABOUT ELON MUSK AND HIS FATHER ERROL... AT ERROL'S 70TH BIRTHDAY, WORLD-FAMOUS STARS ASKED HIM "YOU SUPPORT TRUMP?" HE SAID YES. ELON TOLD HIM SUPPORTING TRUMP IS EVIL... "BUT NOW HE SUPPORTS TRUMP HIMSELF," ERROL RECALLS 2016. cape town. Errol Musk turns 70 Elon and Kimbal fly in and bring about 20 guests from america. Errol says they were all Hollywood. he names Scarlett Johansson, Jennifer Lawrence, Jon Favreau. plus one of the people behind Google the lunch goes on for hours then Favreau leans over with a big laugh: "we believe you support Trump" "yes. I support Trump" the whole table laughs. "that's stupid." "he's a terrible person" Errol: "no he's not" after the lunch Kimbal is furious. "I've never seen Kimbal so angry." his father embarrassed them in front of their friends and Elon says it straight: "it's evil to support Trump" now fast forward to 2024. Elon endorses Trump, puts a fortune behind the campaign, and jumps on stage at his rallies Errol's take, said with zero modesty: "he had been brainwashed by these Democrats. because now Elon supports Trump" the interviewer asks the obvious question: so did you two not speak for 7 years? not exactly. "we were on bad terms." happy birthday. happy christmas. that's it "he was never very happy. but now he's very happy" "so did he come to you and say: dad, I was wrong, you were right?" this is the part that got me: "no. I'm a dad. I don't want to put my kids through that, where they have to say sorry to me... obviously from what he's doing he should be saying something like that. but I would never put him through that" and then the ending december, after a big rocket launch in florida. a SpaceX party, about 250 people Elon stops the whole room, puts his arm around his father: "everybody. this is my dad. he taught me everything I know about engineering" from "it's evil" to "he taught me everything" in front of 250 SpaceX engineers fair warning: this is Errol's version. Elon has said very harsh things about his father over the years, and the family's history with Errol is far darker than one party story but notice what actually changed Elon's mind it wasn't an argument at a birthday lunch. it wasn't his father it was Trump himself in 2016 a table of Hollywood stars laughed at the idea of supporting him. 8 years later he'd won the white house twice and turned one of his loudest skeptics, the richest man on earth, into his biggest backer whatever you think of him, very few people have ever changed what the world thinks of them that hard, with their own actions in 2016 saying "I support Trump" got you laughed at in Cape Town in 2024 Elon was jumping on stage next to him the old man at the end of the table just saw it 8 years early in markets that's the whole game. being early feels exactly like being laughed at so who was really right at that lunch: the stars, or the guy they were laughing at?
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Phil Mickelson owed money to his Las Vegas gambling buddy, Billy Walters. Billy gave him a secret stock tip, Phil made $931,000 in a week and paid him back. Billy went to prison for 5 years. Phil was never charged. When Billy got out, he wrote a book about Phil. More than $1 billion in bets, by Billy's count. In the video below, Billy tells ESPN what would have kept him out of prison. Billy spent decades as one of the biggest sports bettors in America. Phil was his golf partner, his friend and a man who owed him money. July 2012. Phil owes Billy gambling money. Billy calls him and tells him to buy Dean Foods. Billy's information came from a Dean Foods board member. He owed Billy money too. A week later, the stock jumped 40%. Phil sold with more than $931,000 in profit. In September, he paid Billy back, partly with that money. The money went in a circle. Only one man went to prison. In 2016, the SEC named Phil a "relief defendant." That means he wasn't accused of anything, but he was holding money that wasn't his to keep. He paid back $1,037,029 and never admitted or denied a thing. In 2017, Billy was convicted and got 5 years. Phil never testified. "All Phil had to do was publicly say it. He refused," Billy wrote. While Billy was inside, his daughter died. He wrote that he still believes he could have saved her if he'd been on the outside. In 2023, his book came out. At least $1 billion wagered. At least $100 million lost. More than 1,115 bets over $100,000. Phil denied one claim: "I never bet on the Ryder Cup." $931,000: what Phil made on the tip. 5 years: what Billy got. $1 billion: what Billy says Phil bet. Phil kept his silence, his career and a reported $200 million LIV deal. Billy kept the receipts.
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Jordan Belfort, ordered to repay his victims $110,400,000, says he chose an FBI wire over 30 years in prison. When it was time to record a close friend, he warned him with a note: "I'm wired." The friend betrayed him and handed the note to the FBI. In the video below, he explains what that note cost him. The movie showed the money he made. It skipped the money people lost. Stratton Oakmont had over 1,000 brokers cold-calling ordinary people. They pushed cheap stocks Stratton secretly controlled, the price went up, and insiders sold at the top. The clients were left holding shares that soon were worth almost nothing. 1,513 people lost an estimated $200,000,000. By 2013, they had gotten back about $11,000,000, most of it from selling property the government seized. Belfort wasn't the only one talking. His partner Danny Porush, the man Jonah Hill's character is loosely based on, was cooperating too. The prosecutor said the government needed both of them, "but to do so separately without each other's knowledge." After that note, Belfort says, he stopped protecting anyone. One of the men he helped prosecutors build a case against was Steve Madden, the man behind one of America's best-known shoe brands. Stratton took Madden's company public in 1993. The SEC said Belfort secretly kept a big stake in it through a fake sale of his shares to a company Madden owned. Madden also helped Stratton rig 22 IPOs. He got shares before the public, sold them back to Stratton at a set profit, and Stratton's brokers resold the same shares to clients at higher prices. He had to give back $5,183,450 and pay a $1,000,000 fine. Madden had been Porush's best friend since childhood. He was sentenced to 41 months and served about 31. Belfort served 22. Madden later said Belfort "ratted me out to save himself." Last year, the company with his name on it brought in $2,534,000,000. Belfort tried to save one friend and got sold out. He didn't try to save his partner's best friend, and that man's name is still on shoe boxes across America.
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ELON MUSK ON HIS OWN FATHER: "MY FATHER IS A TERRIBLE HUMAN BEING. HE WILL HAVE A CAREFULLY THOUGHT-OUT PLAN OF EVIL. ALMOST EVERY CRIME YOU CAN POSSIBLY THINK OF, HE HAS DONE"... AND HERE'S WHAT ERROL MUSK (ELON'S DAD) THINKS ABOUT IT 2017. Rolling Stone. the richest man on the planet sits down for an interview and ends up crying about his dad "he's good at making life miserable, that's for sure" "I don't know how someone becomes like he is" and one detail most people missed: Elon and his first wife Justine promised each other their kids would never be introduced to him years later Errol sits across from an interviewer who reads every one of those lines back to him he doesn't get angry. he doesn't cry. he folds his arms and says: "they must have caught him on a bad day" "I've never actually planned anything evil that I can think of" "I've met all these kids. when they were small" and about Justine: "the less said the better" then he gives his explanation, and this is the part that stuck with me "it depends how your kids see you" "I didn't suffer fools. if something serious was going to be destroyed by the action of a fool, I would not let it happen" "they were very aware that I was somebody who acted very quickly in the event of things going rotten" read that again and tell me who it sounds like because that's almost word for word how people describe working for Elon the all-nighters. the instant firings. the "demon mode" his own biographer wrote about. 80% of Twitter's staff gone in a few months the son calls it evil when the father does it the world calls it genius when the son does it to be clear: Errol's version is Errol's version. Elon, Kimbal and other family members have described a very different childhood, and the accusations against him are serious but there's an uncomfortable question in this clip that has nothing to do with family drama how much of the most valuable founder on earth was built by the person he says he hates most? some kids spend their whole life running from their father some build a $400B+ fortune using his playbook and still call it evil maybe both are the same kid
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ELON MUSK AND HIS BROTHER KIMBAL USED TO FIGHT RIGHT ON THE OFFICE FLOOR OVER COMPANY STRATEGY... AND KIMBAL TELLS THE STORY WITH NOTHING BUT LOVE FOR ELON mid-90s. Zip2, their first startup. two brothers, one tiny office, no money they slept there. showered at the YMCA. and when they disagreed on strategy, they didn't book a meeting "I'm a very strong-willed person. my brother's a very strong-willed person... well of course we should fight it out" one fight went further than the others Elon raised his fist to punch Kimbal in the face Kimbal had no way to defend himself so he grabbed the fist and tore a piece of skin off it Elon had to go get a tetanus shot that's funny for about five seconds. then the interviewer asks about Asperger's, and Kimbal gets honest the upside: "he's the greatest engineer in the world. I don't think anyone comes close, frankly" the downside: "he doesn't really have an empathy gene" you have a life? a marriage? "how is that relevant? we have work to do" and then the line that hit me hardest: "even with him and I, I have to speak out loud: this is how I am feeling. then he can process it. but I can't expect him to feel it" his own brother has to translate his emotions into words, like reporting data, just so Elon can understand them and he still ends with: "I've grown up with him and we love each other, and it works" no bitterness. no "he was a monster". just a guy who knows exactly who his brother is and decided to stay here's why this matters beyond family drama in 1999 Compaq bought Zip2 for ~$307M. the brothers who fought on the floor walked away millionaires, and that money became the seed for everything Elon did next Kimbal later sat on the Tesla board for years most co-founder fights end with a lawyer and a buyout. theirs ended with a tetanus shot and 30 years of working together the lesson isn't "fight your co-founder" it's that the same trait that makes someone impossible to work with can be the one that builds the company. and the people who last next to that kind of person are the ones who stop expecting them to feel, and start telling them what they feel
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ELON MUSK: "IF THE FOURTH LAUNCH HADN'T WORKED, I THINK DEATH WOULD HAVE BEEN INEVITABLE"... "FOR ME TO GIVE UP, I'D HAVE TO BE DEAD OR COMPLETELY INCAPACITATED" he's not talking about himself. he's talking about spacex 60 minutes, 2012. scott pelley takes him back to the worst stretch of his life falcon 1, spacex's first rocket: launch 1, 2006: fails launch 2, 2007: fails launch 3, august 2008: fails pelley asks the obvious question. after the third failure in a row, did you think about packing it in? "never" "why not?" "i don't ever give up. i mean, i'd have to be dead or completely incapacitated" the third failure came down to a timing glitch measured in seconds. so 8 weeks later he bets the whole company on one more rocket and here's the part people skip. he didn't have a fifth one "if that fourth launch hadn't worked, that would have been it. we did not have the resources for a fifth launch" "death would have been, i think, inevitable" september 28, 2008. launch 4 reaches orbit. the first privately built liquid-fuel rocket ever to do it now the napkin math: his own money in spacex back then: ~$100M rockets it paid for: 4 rockets that worked: 1 spacex market cap today: ~$2T the most valuable rocket company on earth sits on top of one launch that could have gone the other way and at the end pelley says it's a tricky business. elon just nods: "i wish it wasn't so hard" everyone talks about the $2T. nobody talks about the version of 2008 where rocket #4 blows up and spacex is a footnote the gap between those two worlds was one launch
Back to the Moon
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ELON MUSK'S CHILDHOOD WAS PSYCHOLOGICALLY BRUTAL, BUT HE RODE IN ROLLS-ROYCES AND PRIVATE PLANES... AND THAT'S EXACTLY WHY HE COULD BET EVERYTHING you probably know the dark half of the story bullied at school. beaten so badly he ended up in hospital. a father Elon himself has called "a terrible human being" now here's the half his father tells an interviewer asks Errol Musk: did Elon just never care about money? "yes, yes, yes" then he describes what Elon grew up with: a big house in one of pretoria's best suburbs by age 7, 8, 9, Errol had moved on from Mercedes to Rolls-Royce. "so they only rode in Rolls-Royce cars" want to go somewhere? you get in a twin-engine plane that belongs to you, land on your own airstrip, walk to your lodge learned to ski in europe before they were 10 and then he compares it to his own childhood no bed until he was 10. he slept on a couch. the family lived in two rooms of a boarding house his conclusion is the whole post: "when you start like i did, you get money and you think: i should keep this and spend it as slowly as possible" "but when you grow up like Elon... what the hell, you can make it again. you're never ever gonna go down" and the line that stings: "to them, hardship was when they ran out of fillet steak" now look at 2002 eBay buys PayPal. Elon walks away with ~$180M before tax a guy who grew up poor buys bonds and a house and never works again Elon puts ~$100M into SpaceX and ~$70M into Tesla. by the end of 2008, by his own account, he's borrowing from friends to pay rent that's not courage the way we usually mean it. it's a different relationship with zero your risk tolerance isn't just math. it's memory the people who've been poor feel the floor. the people who haven't don't believe it exists fair warning: this is Errol's version. Elon has publicly pushed back on the "rich kid" story and says he arrived in north america with almost nothing so which one is it: did he bet everything because he was brave, or because he never believed he could actually lose?
The new Tesla Roadster accelerates faster than a fighter jet taking off from an aircraft carrier
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Jordan Belfort was ordered to pay his victims $110,400,000. He scammed a 60-year-old retiree out of $250,000, forcing him to work for the rest of his life to pay off his debts. The man got back just $8,000. Watch what he does when 60 Minutes asks if he's hiding his income. Belfort is the stockbroker Leonardo DiCaprio played in The Wolf of Wall Street. He served 22 months for fraud. His firm, Stratton Oakmont, cold-called ordinary people, pushed them into worthless stocks, then dumped its own shares on them. In 2003, the court gave him a simple rule: half of his gross income goes to the 1,513 investors he defrauded. Here's how that went, according to prosecutors: Paid back, mostly from property he forfeited: $12,800,000 Made on speeches from 2013 to 2015: at least $9,000,000 Still owed in 2018: $97,000,000 Prosecutors say he kept all of the speech money. Belfort says the 50% rule ended with his probation in 2009, and he disputes the government's numbers. A federal judge looked at his finances and said, "It seems like he has some spare change lying around." The pitch never changed. A confident voice promises you a shortcut to money. His victims heard it on the phone in the '90s. Today it comes with a ticket price. Anyone who owes his victims $97,000,000 shouldn't get to sell you the pitch that made them victims.
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HARD TO BELIEVE, BUT ELON MUSK'S SCHOOL THOUGHT HE WAS "RETARDED," SAYS HIS FATHER ERROL MUSK... YEARS LATER EVERYONE REALIZED IT WAS GENIUS pretoria, south africa, around 1979. Elon is 7 or 8, in grade two the headmaster calls his father and says they need to talk Errol drives over sure he knows what it is. Elon had a habit: adults would see him with some huge book and ask if he was just looking at the pictures. Elon would tell them "no, of course not, stupid" so Errol expects to hear his son insulted a teacher instead he walks into the office and finds the headmaster and an older teacher wringing her hands the headmaster says it straight: "we think your son is retarded" the evidence? everyone in class is taking notes. Elon sits and stares out the window the teacher has to walk up and push him on the shoulder before he even notices her she asks what he's doing he says the trees are getting their leaves Errol: "well, that's reasonable. i don't see anything wrong with that" the school: something is wrong with him their fix was a hearing test. his hearing was fine. Errol moved him to a private school and, in his words, "we never had any more problems" now look at what that "problem" actually was a kid who goes so deep into one thing that the rest of the room disappears his father says it never went away. even today, he says, you can be rude to Elon and it doesn't land. it just bounces off the same trait the school flagged as a defect is the one that later taught him to code by himself and sell his first video game at 12 had him reading the encyclopedia when he ran out of books built a rocket company out of nothing but obsession the school wasn't wrong about the data. he really wasn't paying attention to them they were wrong about the price markets do this all the time. the thing that looks broken is just optimized for something you're not measuring the school graded attention. the world ended up paying for focus
It’s that easy
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THE PAIN IN ELON MUSK'S VOICE WHEN HE TALKS ABOUT THIS... THE COMPANY HAD 4 MONTHS LEFT TO LIVE april 2023. Twitter HQ, San Francisco. a BBC reporter sits across from Elon and asks about his first days as owner he doesn't start with the bots or free speech. he starts with the money "definitely spending money like it's going out of fashion" then he lays out what he walked into: Twitter was tracking to lose over $3 billion a year and it had about $1 billion in the bank "so that's four months to death. so this is your starting position. how would you feel?" the reporter: "pretty intense" here's where the hole came from, in his own rough numbers: before the deal: ~$4.5B revenue, ~$4.5B costs. basically break even after the deal: revenue drops to ~$3B as advertisers pull out costs jump to ~$6B, because the takeover loaded ~$1.5B a year of debt interest onto the company napkin math: $3B burn a year = ~$250M a month $1B in cash / $250M = 4 months 4 months = ~120 days and then the line he says almost quietly: "unless drastic action was taken immediately, this company is going to die" you know what the drastic action was. thousands of people lost their jobs within weeks. by the time of this interview he said it was down to about 1,500 people the part nobody talks about: a big chunk of that $3B hole wasn't Twitter's fault. it was the debt he used to buy it he paid $44 billion for a company, and the purchase itself cut its life to 4 months he didn't buy a company. he bought a countdown
People are buying FSD with a car attached, not the other way around
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Bernie Madoff confessed a $50 billion Ponzi scheme to his wife and sons. By 7 a.m. the next morning, his own sons had turned him in to the FBI. In the video below, his wife and son explain what happened the night he confessed. Madoff wasn't a basement con man. He was a former chairman of Nasdaq, and for decades his fund paid the same steady returns, year after year. It never invested a penny. New investors' money paid the old ones. On paper, $65 billion. By the end, a few hundred million was left. His sons Mark and Andrew worked for him for 20 years, two floors above the fund. The 17th floor was off-limits. Every time they asked, he told them: "You guys have your business to worry about." The night he confessed, Ruth asked one question: "What's a Ponzi scheme?" The sons went to the authorities. Ruth stayed. A day later she asked Andrew to co-sign his father's $10 million bail bond. He refused. Turning him in didn't save them. The bankruptcy trustee sued Andrew for $60 million, nearly everything his father had ever paid, lent or given him. Ruth gave up $80 million and kept $2.5 million. Bernie got 150 years. Mark died two years to the day after the arrest. He was 46. The sons did the right thing, and it destroyed them. The wife stood by him, and she walked away with $2.5 million.
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THIS IS INSANE...HOW CLOSE ELON MUSK CAME TO GOING BANKRUPT IN 2008 september 2008. Elon is on stage at the Inc. 5000 conference. brown jacket, legs crossed, totally calm what's going on behind him: SpaceX: 3 Falcon 1 launches, 3 failures Tesla: burning cash, barely any cars delivered Wall Street: the same month Lehman Brothers collapses and rocket #4 is already standing on an island in the middle of the Pacific. it launches that week the host asks him straight: you said every launch is like Russian roulette. so how do you know you're dead? when do you stop? Elon doesn't even pause: "i think if we run out of money" then he adds: "i know this sounds crazy, but we were profitable last year. we're going to be profitable this year" "we have enough funding... to last through the end of next year" now look at what actually happened september 28: rocket #4 reaches orbit. the first privately built liquid-fuel rocket ever to do it it doesn't save him by december he's out of cash. by his own account, he's borrowing money from friends to pay rent "enough funding through the end of next year" lasted about 3 months december 23: NASA calls. a ~$1.6B cargo contract december 24: Tesla closes the round that keeps it alive napkin math: his PayPal money: ~$180M into SpaceX: ~$100M into Tesla: ~$70M runway he announced on stage: ~15 months runway he actually had: ~3 months he wasn't lying on that stage. he was telling you the plan, and the plan assumed nothing would break in 2008 everything broke "if we run out of money" wasn't bravado. it was the only stop rule he had. and he came within days of hitting it the richest man in the world was one phone call away from being a cautionary tale
Try Grok @Bot, you will love it!
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ERROL MUSK (ELON'S FATHER) SAYS HE WAS STRICT AND RAISED MEN, NOT SISSIES. HE SOLD HIS YACHT FOR 4X LESS AND GAVE THE MONEY TO HIS SONS FOR A BUSINESS. PEOPLE STILL ARGUE IF ERROL WAS A GOOD FATHER he is 79. he lives in a quiet town on the South African coast. his son is the richest man in the world. what happens in this clip: → 0:00 "how important is the role of a father?" "very important" → 0:17 "they'll say i was very strict. but i wasn't that strict" → 0:30 "to raise men, not sissies" → 0:38 he sends Elon to America alone, 2 weeks before he turns 18 → 1:05 the first office. $200 a month. a leaky roof. elon showers at the YMCA → 1:47 Errol sells his yacht. bought for 400,000. sold for 100,000 what actually got me is how he ends it. "i never expected anything to come of it." to be fair, the story isn't that clean. Errol put in about $28,000. Elon says it was ~10% of a $200,000 round, and it came later, when the risk was lower. zip2 sold to compaq in 1999 for $305M. Elon walked away with $22M. Kimbal got $15M. and the other side. Elon has called his father "a terrible human being." Kimbal calls their childhood "psychological torture." today Errol says they talk by email, about once a month. a yacht sold at a 75% loss. a son who doesn't call. money is the easy part of being a father. the hard part never shows up on a bank transfer. was Errol a good father, or just an early investor?
Congrats SpaceX team!
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HOW ELON MUSK AND HIS BROTHER KIMBAL ALMOST MISSED THE MOST IMPORTANT MEETING OF THEIR LIVES... IT WAS IN 1996, BUT KIMBAL MUSK (ELON’S BROTHER) STILL REMEMBERS EVERY LITTLE DETAIL january 1996. the brothers are building Zip2 in Palo Alto. no apartment, they sleep in the office and cook on a tiny stove so the employees don’t find out then their mom calls. her computer is broken Kimbal flies from Palo Alto to Toronto just to fix it. “this is how much i love her” on the way back the US border stops him “i still didn’t have a proper visa” “i probably dressed too well. i should have dressed like a tourist” they make him open his luggage. inside: investor decks, plus a business card with his Palo Alto address on it he’s not getting in and the next morning is the meeting. the investor they actually wanted “it was for everything” so he calls his friend Jamie. they drive to another border crossing and tell the guards they’re going to see the David Letterman show the guards wave them through Buffalo airport. flight to San Francisco. a few hours of sleep in the morning Elon and Kimbal take the bus to the venture firm, because neither of their cars works the meeting goes well. the deal gets done that same day at the end they get up: sorry, we have to go, we’ll miss our bus the investors stare at them. “what do you mean you have to catch the bus?” and they give each brother a $30,000 budget to buy a car “we forget the rest of the investment” “we think America is the greatest country in the world” napkin math: the money that day: ~$3M from the VC the cars: $30k each 1999: Compaq buys Zip2 for $307M Elon’s share: ~$22M. it goes into X.com, which becomes PayPal PayPal leaves him ~$180M, and that money becomes SpaceX and Tesla the whole chain started with a guy without a visa lying to a border guard about a late-night talk show one broken computer, one closed border, one bus ride, and the richest man on earth almost never got his first check THAT’S HOW CLOSE IT ALL CAME TO NEVER HAPPENING
As crazy as this sounds, $1T in SpaceX revenue in 2028 is no longer impossible
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KIMBAL MUSK: "THE ROCKET LAUNCH WAS AT 4:00 PM. AT 2:30 PM ELON AND I WERE STILL AT DISNEYLAND" september 28, 2008. spacex had 3 failed launches behind it. the 4th was the last shot. there was no money for a 5th. the rocket was on an island in the middle of the pacific. the control room was a mobile home in a parking lot in la. and the musk brothers went to disneyland with their kids. regular lines. no vip passes. what happens in this clip: → 0:05 "literally as cheap as you can imagine" → 0:15 "my brother and i went to disneyland with our kids" → 0:34 the launch is at 4:00. it's already 2:30 → 0:50 they get back a few minutes before liftoff → 1:08 "everyone just started crying" → 1:28 kimbal starts crying too → 1:42 "the last shot we had before we'd be out of business" → 1:47 a team of 500. boeing's version had 50,000 → 2:13 "nasa saying okay, you deserve to live" what actually got me is 0:34. they're checking their watches in a disneyland line while everything they own sits on one rocket. kimbal calls it "a way to use up the day." when there's nothing left to fix, you just wait. to be fair, falcon 1 flew only one more time after that. then spacex retired it. 3 months later, 2 days before christmas, nasa gave them a $1.6 billion contract. i rewatched 1:08 three times. nobody cheers. they just cry. the disneyland trip wasn't them being careless. it was 2 guys who had already done everything they could.
The new Tesla Roadster accelerates faster than a fighter jet taking off from an aircraft carrier
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$265,000 to stay out of Rocky. Stallone wouldn’t have taken $500,000 either. He’d written the script and had $106 in the bank. In the video below: “My one love was to at least fail on my own terms.” Rocky cost $1 million and won Best Picture. Cash now, or the right to fail on your own terms?
1999. ELON MUSK GETS HIS FIRST MILLIONS AND A $1M SUPERCAR... BUT HIS BIGGEST FEAR THAT DAY WASN'T LOSING THE MONEY 7am. a truck stops outside a small apartment and a 27-year-old Musk watches a McLaren F1 roll off the back "there are 62 McLarens in the world and i will own one of them" "it's a million dollars for a car. it's decadent" he'd just sold Zip2 to Compaq for ~$307M. his cut: ~$22M then he says the line that tells you who he is: "just 3 years ago i was showering at the Y and sleeping on the office floor" his fiancée Justine is standing right next to him. a new millionaire with a new supercar. and this is what he's worried about: "my fear is that we become spoiled brats. that we lose a sense of appreciation and perspective" he knew exactly what the money could buy: "i could go and buy one of the islands in the bahamas and turn it into my personal fiefdom" "i'm much more interested in trying to build and create a new company" and he meant it. he put "the great majority" of his net worth into x.com, an online bank almost nobody believed in his own words: "it's sort of like a series of poker games" "i haven't gone and taken my winnings... i've just put almost all of it back into the new game" x.com became paypal. paypal turned into ~$180M. the $180M went into spacex and tesla. you know the rest and the car? a year later, Peter Thiel in the passenger seat, on the way to pitch Sequoia. Musk floors it. the F1 spins and goes airborne. no insurance. both walk away napkin math: the toy: $1M in 1999. F1s now sell for $20M+. ~20x the chips he pushed back on the table: ~$22M. today: hundreds of billions. four more zeros the island: still just an island the only time he ever cashed out, he bought a car. everything else went back into the game 26 years later the richest man alive sleeps in an airstream. the 27-year-old who was scared of becoming a spoiled brat never let it happen
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HOW ELON MUSK AND HIS BROTHER'S FIRST VACATION ALMOST TURNED INTO A TRAGEDY... AND HOW IS IT CONNECTED TO THE SUCCESS OF SPACEX? december 2000. Elon has just been pushed out as CEO of PayPal. he's 29, rich on paper, and for once he takes a break he flies to South Africa with his brother Kimbal. the bush, a safari, the place they grew up running around in Kimbal laughs about it now: "we'd go to the bush all the time. i don't think we ever took malaria tablets" this time they did. it didn't matter january 2001. Elon is back in California and something is badly wrong. doctors check for malaria. negative Kimbal: "i couldn't figure out what was wrong with him" then their uncle, a doctor in South Africa, says it straight: "he has malaria. check again" he was right. malaria hides in the body. and this was the deadly kind Elon: "i had a severe case of malaria. almost died" "i lost like 50 pounds" "took me over six months to get back to normal" and his lesson from all of it: "no more vacations" now the part that matters six months of recovery. no company to run. a guy who almost died at 29 starts asking one question: what do i do next? he checks NASA's website to see when humans are going to Mars. there's no plan. nothing so he flies to Moscow. to buy ICBMs. "literally" "i can afford to pay under nine million dollars for an ICBM. but not 20" the Russians keep raising the price. he walks out and instead of looking for a cheaper seller, he asks a different question: why are rockets so expensive in the first place? the metal, the fuel, the parts cost a small slice of the price tag. the rest is how the industry builds them so instead of buying a rocket, he decides to build one napkin math: the rocket he was willing to pay for: under $9M where the Russians were pushing: $20M+ his cut from the PayPal sale to eBay in 2002: ~$180M how much of it went into SpaceX: ~$100M SpaceX today: valued at $800B+ the company is now worth ~8,000x the money he put in the first three Falcon 1 launches failed. the fourth reached orbit in 2008. he's said there was money for basically one more try most people come back from almost dying and slow down. Elon came back and bet more than half of everything on the most expensive thing on earth a vacation almost killed him. the comeback built SpaceX
Future fun Roadster demos will include flying over the Snake River or maybe Grand Canyon and landing on its wheels and exceeding half the speed of sound
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1999. ELON MUSK GETS HIS FIRST MILLIONS AND A $1M SUPERCAR... BUT HIS BIGGEST FEAR THAT DAY WASN'T LOSING THE MONEY 7am. a truck stops outside a small apartment and a 27-year-old Musk watches a McLaren F1 roll off the back "there are 62 McLarens in the world and i will own one of them" "it's a million dollars for a car. it's decadent" he'd just sold Zip2 to Compaq for ~$307M. his cut: ~$22M then he says the line that tells you who he is: "just 3 years ago i was showering at the Y and sleeping on the office floor" his fiancée Justine is standing right next to him. a new millionaire with a new supercar. and this is what he's worried about: "my fear is that we become spoiled brats. that we lose a sense of appreciation and perspective" he knew exactly what the money could buy: "i could go and buy one of the islands in the bahamas and turn it into my personal fiefdom" "i'm much more interested in trying to build and create a new company" and he meant it. he put "the great majority" of his net worth into x.com, an online bank almost nobody believed in his own words: "it's sort of like a series of poker games" "i haven't gone and taken my winnings... i've just put almost all of it back into the new game" x.com became paypal. paypal turned into ~$180M. the $180M went into spacex and tesla. you know the rest and the car? a year later, Peter Thiel in the passenger seat, on the way to pitch Sequoia. Musk floors it. the F1 spins and goes airborne. no insurance. both walk away napkin math: the toy: $1M in 1999. F1s now sell for $20M+. ~20x the chips he pushed back on the table: ~$22M. today: hundreds of billions. four more zeros the island: still just an island the only time he ever cashed out, he bought a car. everything else went back into the game 26 years later the richest man alive sleeps in an airstream. the 27-year-old who was scared of becoming a spoiled brat never let it happen
Turns out the future does have flying cars
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WILL SMITH: "I'M SORRY MOM" HE WAS 9. HE WATCHED IT FROM THE DOORWAY... he has number one hits and box office records. he says a 9-year-old part of him still thinks he's a coward. one night his dad punched his mom so hard she spit up blood. will was standing in the bedroom doorway. less than 10 yards away. people pleaser = a kid who can't fight and can't run, so he keeps the angry person happy. so nobody gets hurt. what he says in this clip: → 0:05 "nobody suffered more than my mother" → 0:13 he watched his father punch his mother so hard she spit up blood → 0:18 that moment "defined who i am today" → 0:32 his brother fought. his sister ran. he became a pleaser → 0:40 as long as his dad was laughing, they were safe → 0:55 his 9-year-old brain decided it was his fault → 1:26 "i was less than ten yards away... yet i did nothing" → 1:52 "that i'm a coward. that i failed" → 1:56 "i'm sorry, my mom. i'm so sorry" what actually got me is that one of the funniest guys in america learned to be funny to keep his dad calm. the fresh prince wasn't just a character. it was a job he started at 9. i rewatched 1:56 three times. it's his own book, his own words, and it still sounds like he's saying sorry to her right now. then the clip ends and his mom walks in. she read that chapter the day before. she told him a 9-year-old could not have done anything. a kid who makes everyone laugh isn't always a happy kid. sometimes it's the only way he knows to keep the house quiet.
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BEN AFFLECK (BATMAN) SWORE HE'D NEVER BECOME HIS FATHER. THEN HE DID he watched his dad drink every day. then his own relapse went around the world. 0:12 → two trips to rehab in three years. married, three kids 0:17 → "i don't want my children to pay for my sins. to be afraid for me" 0:27 → "that's one of the hard parts of being the child of an alcoholic" 0:32 → "what if my dad gets drunk. what if he ends up on tmz and it's on my newsfeed" 0:38 → asked if he watched his own relapse video: "i saw a little bit" 0:53 → "i know what it looks like to be drunk. i don't need to watch anymore" 1:03 → his grandmother took her life amid alcohol and barbiturates. his aunt had an addiction. so did his father 1:14 → "my dad was drunk every day. that was just life" 1:22 → "i always said that'll never be me" 1:39 → "i never thought i was gonna get divorced" 2:01 → "it meant i wasn't who i thought i was" what got me is the tmz line. he's not scared of the drinking. he's scared of his kid scrolling past it at school. an oscar, batman, millions in the bank. none of it stopped the thing he watched as a boy from walking into his own house. that isn't a fame story. that's what it looks like when a family habit outlives the promise you made to break it. i break down the craziest stories behind the money, so don't lose me.
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