19 yo investor | Documenting my journey from €3.8k | Concentration is key | Compounding through asymmetric bets
Joined October 2025
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Portfolio Update (July 2026)
Still holding roughly a 50/50 split between $NBIS and $MU. I stepped back from watching the screen during the recent sell off. Used the time to focus on building a side business with a friend during summer break (maybe I’ll talk about this if it reaches profitability). The reality is my long term thesis stays strong, so im fine with this volatility.
1/4 Performance: Portfolio peaked at €31,200 on June 19, dropped to a sell off low of €21,400 on July 17, and is currently back at €26,017 (56.7% $NBIS, 42.9% $MU).
2/4 $NBIS: Remains my core pick through 2030. Upside potential and growth trajectory outpace almost everything else in compute infra. I will keep this heavily weighted moving forward. If you're interested in my price target, it's pinned on my profile.
3/4 $MU: Memory remains a massive asymmetric opportunity right now, but long term upside won't match $NBIS multi bagger potential. Great baseline risk/reward floor and very compressed while earnings keep exploding.
4/4 Outlook: The drawdown was sharp, but the underlying core thesis for both plays is intact. High expectations for the rest of the year from here on out.
Portfolio Update - June
Went 100% cash. Total portfolio value is €28,476. Monthly return rate is 57,12% (€9,9k in gains). Market feels overextended & keeping these massive monthly gains takes priority right now. The reality is R/R is no longer skewed in my favor. Details below
ALT Source: Gemini
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Underwriting this, drawdowns are part of the game if you invest in high beta. Sentiment driven sell off so I’m not worried. Great buying opportunity imho.
I’ve had an incredible year so far and I’m still up 180% YTD(~270% before the recent pullback) , driven primarily by trading around $NBIS, $CRDO, $oust and more.
That said, the market has a way of humbling everyone from time to time. Since the beginning of July, I’m down 24.5%.
I just think it's important to show not only the wins, but the losses too.
Drawdowns are part of investing. The key is managing risk, sticking to your process, and not letting short-term volatility shake you out of your long-term thesis.
I’m confident in the opportunities ahead, and my goal remains to double my portfolio from here by the end of the year.
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Tilman retweeted
Here’s what I believe AI bears get wrong at the most fundamental level:
“There will be an overbuild.”
Many AI bulls respond that demand far outpaces supply. I agree, but that answer is lazy because it does not explain why.
The deeper misunderstanding is that AI bears fundamentally do not understand what data centers and AI actually are.
They treat AI factories like clothing factories: there is only so much clothing people can buy. Produce too much, and prices collapse or inventory goes unsold.
Intelligence does not work that way.
First, demand for intelligence is effectively infinite. A unit of intelligence is never wasted. At worst, you allocate more thinking to existing tasks.
Second, the TAM for intelligence is the entire global services economy. Once AI massively outperforms humans across every domain, it becomes exponentially larger.
A more capable intelligence will not be constrained by the economic ceiling of lower-intelligence tasks.
Compared with future AI systems, humans are primitive monkeys.
Today, we live in the monkey economy, and many smart monkeys argue that we do not need more humans because all the bananas are already being picked and all the trees have already been climbed.
Saying there will be an overbuild does not merely misjudge supply and demand. It reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of intelligence’s potential and its enormous TAM, which I suspect not a single person currently estimates optimistically enough.
This may be one of the rare moments in history when almost everyone, including the dreamers, is underestimating reality.
Usually, it is the opposite.
The future is bright for the entire AI trade imho.
I'm very bullish all quality names like $NBIS $DRAM $MU $SKHY $BE etc.
Market is a Sea of red, but I’m currently on vacation in Portugal with my girlfriend, enjoying the Algarve sun and watching the chaos from a safe distance.
1. In this market, know exactly what you own.
My capital is parked 50/50 in my highest conviction plays: $MU & $NBIS.
2. Hold commons. I’m letting the noise settle and waiting for the technicals to confirm a reversal. Before this i wont think about touching leverage again.
3. Let the market flush. The demand for AI infrastructure and memory bottlenecks hasn't changed. The spring is just compressing tighter.
Enjoy life and stay disciplined!
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Reposting this since $NBIS seems to finally be recovering after that brutal stretch.
Still think the strongest part of my valuation model is the debt scaling with capacity, not staying fixed across scenarios. Most models I see either ignore debt completely or use the same number on every case regardless of how much growth actually happened, that's just inconsistent. If bear case means way less buildout, it should also mean way less debt and that's the whole logic here. Model's below if you want the full breakdown.
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On June 30. my account was up as much as +68% in 3 months. Right now the it’s sitting at +39.8%. That’s a 20% pullback in 2 days.
Portfolio is still worth above €25k. I put in approximately €15k, so I’m still sitting on roughly €10k in profit. Peak account value was €31.5k, so I’m down about €6k from the top, which sounds brutal but is only a 20% drawdown from ATH.
My $MUU position (2x leveraged) dropped below the 20 EMA, so I cut the position and pulled the stop. This was the framework, needed to stick to my own rules. I’ll relever once we get a clear trend acceleration. Right now I’m unlevered in my highest $NBIS and $MU. Just holding.
I personally think, this isn’t about fundamentals. There’s no real catalyst here, it’s pure sentiment driven sell off across AI. Which usually means the snapback, when it comes, is fast.
Im posting this because I want to be transparent about the red days too, not just the green ones. If you’re in AI names right now and you’re down, you’re not alone. This volatility is completely normal. Just hold and trust the process. Better days are coming.
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Folks, I think the temporary label on my account that misinterpreted me as spam has finally been removed. Hopefully I can post again now and actually have reach.
This whole situation was very, very annoying. Because of the label, none of my recent posts or comments were visible to anyone. X should definitely add proper human support for something like this. There is literally nothing you can do, you just get sent around in circles on their help page, get automatic responses, and it's just incredibly frustrating.
But yeah, I think I'm finally free again. Let's see.
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For all my Star Wars fans
These videos were generated from a single prompt using Gemini Pro.
AI filmmaking is getting insane!
🤖 Made with AI
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I'm so done with this platform ngl. Support is an actual joke, like actual garbage. My account got flagged spam out of nowhere, reach is just DEAD. It's been like two weeks now and the label just won't go away. And for what. I posted a Google Drive link to share my $NBIS valuation model with people, that's literally it, rest of the time I'm just normally replying and liking stuff. And their broken ass AI just decided nah spam folder u go.
And then u try to appeal and there's literally no button for it anywhere. It just sends u in circles through these help pages. U click a link and it either loops u back to start or says "you're not logged into a suspended account" like??? Can't appeal, can't talk to a human, nothing, nada.
So I actually went and paid for Premium, $5, bc I thought ok fine if I pay maybe they treat me like an actual person and give me real support. Guess what. The Premium bot just drops this copy paste text basically telling me to deal with it lol. I kept pushing it and it sends me to a REFUND page asking for my card digits just to submit a ticket??? And there's not even a text box to explain what's wrong. Like what.
U just sit there, nothing u can do, two weeks straight now. This isn't support this is a scam at this point tbh.
Verified my number, put my country in, paid for the check, and I'm STILL stuck with this dumb label bc some bot thinks a Google Drive link is phishing. @XSupport @Premium fix ur broken filters and actually let people reach a human when the AI messes up. I'm so done with this platform fr.
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Tilman retweeted
Some investor communities on X get so deep into the sunk cost fallacy that it's hard not to feel for them.
One of the biggest warning signs is when every negative development gets reframed as bullish.
• Bad earnings? - "The market is clueless."
• Dilution? - "More capital to accelerate growth."
• The stock is down 80%? - "The opportunity just got even bigger."
That's not conviction, it's the sunk cost fallacy.
Healthy conviction is being willing to change your mind when the facts change.
The best investors stay attached to the evidence, not the position.
Hope this saves at least a few people from going down the sunk cost spiral.
This is just insane!
$MU Absolutely SMASHED Q3 earnings:
• Revenue: $41.46B vs $35.59B
• Adj. EPS: $25.11 vs Est. $20.60
• Net Income $33.7B vs Est. $23.9B
Q4 guidance:
• Revenue: $50.0B vs Est. $42.92B
• Adj. EPS: $31.00 vs Est. $25.50
• Gross Margin: 86%
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