Tim_olasode

Fuel just crossed N1,000 in parts of this country and everybody is shouting Dangote. Before you run with that, look at the full picture. In December, Dangote dropped fuel to N699. Pump prices in Lagos fell to N730. That was three months ago. So what changed. A war. On February 28, the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran and killed their Supreme Leader. Iran fired back. Missiles hit US bases across the Gulf. Drones struck Qatars LNG facilities. Then Iran went after the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway between Iran and Oman where 20 million barrels of oil pass through daily. That is one fifth of the world’s entire oil supply. Irans Revolutionary Guard said any ship crossing would be set on fire. They backed it up. Five tankers hit. 150 plus ships anchored outside refusing to move. Insurance pulled out. Shipping companies rerouted around Africa. The strait is not formally closed but commercially nothing is moving through it. Before the strikes, Brent crude was 72 dollars a barrel. Right now it is above 108. Some desks touched 114 this morning. Over 50 percent surge in under two weeks. South Korea says it could run out of gas in nine days. China banned fuel exports. Gulf refineries are shutting down. This is a global energy emergency. Now bring it to Dangote. People think the refinery buys crude locally and should not be affected. That is wrong. Dangote needs 13 crude cargoes per month to run at capacity. NNPC provides 5. Five out of thirteen. The other 8 cargoes, Dangote buys on international markets in dollars at global prices. And even the 5 from NNPC are priced at international rates plus a 3 to 6 dollar premium per barrel. Add freight costs and crude lands at the refinery between 88 and 91 dollars a barrel. When fuel was N774, crude was landing at 68 dollars. By mid 2025, 60 percent of Dangotes crude was coming from the United States not Nigeria. That route is now far more expensive because of the Gulf crisis. So Dangote moved from N774 to N995 over four days. That is a 29 percent increase while crude jumped over 50 percent. The refinery said it absorbed 20 percent of the cost to cushion Nigerians. They are selling below what the economics justify. Now here is what should actually make you angry. Nigeria produces over 1.5 million barrels of crude daily. We built the largest single train refinery on earth. 650,000 barrels per day. 20 billion dollars. And the government cannot get enough Nigerian crude into it. The Petroleum Industry Act requires upstream producers to supply domestic refineries. They are not doing it. Government has not enforced its own law. NNPC supplies less than 40 percent of what is needed. The refinery sits in a free trade zone that adds 5 to 7 dollars per barrel in extra charges the government could remove but has not. The naira for crude deal still prices oil at international rates plus premium. So the one refinery keeping fuel available in Nigeria right now has to fight for crude on international markets against every other buyer on the planet. When a crisis hits, all of that collapses on your head at the pump. The frustration is valid. N1,000 fuel is brutal. But screaming at Dangote while the government fails to supply crude to its own refinery and refuses to enforce its own laws is how we end up right back here next time. Ask why NNPC supplies 5 cargoes instead of 13. Ask why the PIA is not enforced. Ask where Nigerias crude is going while its biggest refinery sources 60 percent from America. Those are the real questions. Everything else is noise.