nonlinearities | gardening survivorship (un)bias
Joined May 2021
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been sitting on cash the last quarter or two for an opp like this
so bought some stuff here
will double down next week
and then triple down next next week
and then maybe poverty maybe not
tins retweeted
Give me a break, the polls and models provided the direction in contast to vibes and dumb insiders. And yes it's good that traders were smart enough to trust them. But the better election models were more confident about the outcome than the markets and got there more quickly.
Last night, the power to decide what America sees changed hands.
I have spent a ton of time in DC over the last few months. The elites were certain the markets were off. I heard many variants of “no chance markets are right about X” and “I’ve been in politics for a decade. ‘These people’ don’t really know much.”
Last night, ‘these people’ beat the elites.
Prediction market favorites won 479 of the first 487 races. That’s 98%.
The elites live in a bubble. They theorize, write, ideate, and mistake credentials for an understanding of lives they’ve never lived. They don’t see and feel what the everyday man, on the ground, sees and feels.
Knowledge is not exclusive to the elites but scattered across millions of people.
Someone knows their hometown better than any national pundit. Someone has followed a local race passionately for months. Someone has followed a local race dispassionately for months. Someone notices a shift in their community before it makes the headlines. Someone is shaped by an incident at work. Someone is shaped by what’s getting harder or easier for their families.
Each holds a piece of the picture that no expert can see in full.
And for the longest time, that knowledge had no way to reach the rest of the world.
For generations, election night meant turning on the TV and waiting for a handful of people to tell you what happened.
Prediction markets change that.
You don't need a title, a large following, or an editor to publish you. All you need is a perspective and the conviction to back it.
That changes who holds power over information.
Anyone can see the market. Anyone can contribute to it. Anyone can question it. No title gives you the final word. No gatekeepers can filter your view.
Sometimes the signal can be wrong. But anyone can challenge the consensus and improve it.
And when people consolidate their knowledge together, something remarkable happens: millions of individual perspectives become a signal that we all can learn from.
Over the last few months, the people showed up on Kalshi to tell the world what they were going to do.
Last night, the megaphone was passed to them.
tins retweeted
it’s crazy that the Right had two years to do literally whatever they wanted and they spent it enriching themselves, bombing iran, and protecting pedophiles
first in my bloodline to witness the adjective of clavicle and fermented cabbage in the same sentence
tins retweeted
absolute cinema how the actual dram names like sk hynix and sandisk pump out stellar earnings but because other ai stocks shit the bed and go down 13 and 20% respectively memory has to go down for stat arb beta reasons
the promise to house all of finance is one we’ve heard every cycle. calling it a promise is generous; it’s closer to a fundraising pitch, one that helped some raise half a yard, only to post 200x less rev w no real users. yet the one that raised $0 is actualizing it.
hyperliquid
Growing up in the United States, NYSE was synonymous with the story of American capitalism. I vividly remember learning about the Buttonwood agreement in 9th grade history class. 24 stockbrokers met under a tree on Wall Street and formed the beginning of what would become the world's financial center. From pits to computers to now onchain markets, America has always led the way in innovating markets to improve price discovery and capital formation. Today the next chapter begins with ICE, trade[XYZ], and Hyperliquid.
ICE started as an electricity-trading platform in 2000, growing to acquire NYSE itself in only 13 years. It is a key infrastructure provider of America’s energy, bond, and mortgage markets. ICE is a rare story of exponential growth of a financial giant over decades, continually embracing innovation and technology.
trade[XYZ] was the first HIP-3 deployer and responsible for spearheading the flourishing global RWA perpetual market today. Only a year ago, trade[XYZ] launched its first RWA perpetual markets. They took a bet on HIP-3, which had just launched after months of tireless development. Having followed their journey from day 1, I cannot overstate how much Shoku and the team have poured into growing these markets to a genuine source of price discovery for the most important assets in the world.
Over the past three years, Hyperliquid has pioneered onchain infrastructure to house all of finance. Hyperliquid is nothing without its world-class builders. I am honored that trade[XYZ] and ICE have chosen to build on Hyperliquid to bring perpetual contracts to America.
When I first spoke to Jeff Sprecher around a year ago, he asked what success looks like to me. I thought for some time and joked that it would be seeing ICE building on Hyperliquid's technology. I could never have predicted the progress that we've made as a community in a single year to make this come true. Excited to see what we can build together next.
tins retweeted
I had the opportunity to write about @HyperliquidX and 24/7 markets for @Weltwoche's special issue "Magie des Geldes".
Hyperliquid
weltwoche.ch/story/money-nev…
