🧠 THE READ ON KIRILL KAPRIZOV 🧠 - His median night is 4 shots and this line is 3.5, so the number sits under a normal Kaprizov game. The log reads 2, 4, 4, 3, 5, 6, 3, 4, 4, 0 newest first, six of ten over. - The price is the reason this is here. At +130 you need to be right 43% of the time, and he has done it 60% of the time. Shop it, because one book is sitting a long way above the rest of the market on this one. - Utah is without John Marino on the back end, and Minnesota is missing both Folignos and Brock Faber up front, so the shot volume funnels to the guys who are left. Two honest warnings. The Wild played back to back Saturday and Sunday, so this is game three in four days, and Sunday was one of his quietest nights of the year at 2 shots. Follow us for more daily free threads on all the sports you love.

🧠 THE READ ON TAGE THOMPSON 🧠 - His median night this season is 4.5 shots on goal, a full shot above this line. The log reads 0, 3, 5, 6, 1, 1, 6, 6, 9, 4 newest first, and he has cleared 3.5 in six of ten. - When he goes, he goes big. Four of those ten games finished at 6 or more, including a 9-shot night against Minnesota, so the upside side of this number is nowhere near the line. - Buffalo is without Jiri Kulich and has Justin Danforth day to day, which leaves the shot-generating load on Thompson, and San Jose has not been a team that takes volume away. The risk is real and you should know it: he was blanked at Washington on Saturday and three of his ten games ended at one shot or fewer. He is big nights or quiet ones, which is why this sits at even money. Follow us for more daily free threads on all the sports you love.

🧠 THE READ ON JOEL ERIKSSON EK 🧠 - He has cleared this number in 8 of 10 games this season, the best hit rate on tonight's whole board. The log reads 5, 2, 4, 8, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 6 newest first, and his median is 3. - The floor is what sells it. He has not finished under two shots once in ten games, and both misses landed exactly on 2. This does not need a big night, it needs him to show up. - Minnesota is down Marcus Foligno, Nick Foligno and Brock Faber, so the forward group is thin and the minutes concentrate on the guys who are healthy. Ek is one of them. The risk is fatigue. The Wild played back to back on Saturday and Sunday, so this is their third game in four days, though he still put 5 on net in the second half of that back to back. Follow us for more daily free threads on all the sports you love.

🧠 THE READ ON JRUE HOLIDAY 🧠 - His median scoring night across his last ten is 14 points, and this line is 11.5. The log reads 12, 8, 8, 20, 29, 16, 9, 21, 23, 9, six of ten over, and all of it is with Portland, so there is no team change muddying it. - Portland has no guards left. Shaedon Sharpe is out about six months with a torn meniscus and Scoot Henderson is questionable with ankle soreness, which leaves Holiday and Ja Morant as the backcourt. - He already put up 12 in 26 minutes on Saturday with that rotation thinning out, and even money on a guy whose median is two and a half points clear of the number is the wrong price. The risk is minutes. He has played 26 and 21 this season after 32 to 41 last year, and if Scoot is cleared some of that run goes back to him. Follow us for more daily free threads on all the sports you love.

Buffalo has allowed four goals in four of its last five, and San Jose comes home off a six-game road trip that ended with six against in Boston, so a quiet night would need a goalie neither team has shown yet. Follow us for more daily free threads on all the sports you love.

Leevi Merilainen getting the start over Lankinen is the one thing that could cool this game off, and while his .912 is the better number, he is 1-3-1 behind the same leaky blue line. Follow us for more daily free threads on all the sports you love.

Vegas brings a three-game skid home, which is the only real knock on this price, but those games came on the road and tonight the Golden Knights get Ottawa's backup in their own building. Follow us for more daily free threads on all the sports you love.