TKzimms.eth

30-40k BTC bidders/sideliners dreamed of this scenario yet bitcoin is still at 76k news within the last 7 days -the AI rout wiped out $2.5 trillion from the nasdaq, the worst one day destruction of value in its history (WSJ) -more than 1,800 points are wiped off the dow, the nasdaq sank 5.52% into correction territory (Fox Business) -the largest crypto hack on record just occurred. about $6.3 billion in client assets (CNBC). binance says it'll cover all user losses -trump linked tokens led crypto losses after democrats swept the US midterm elections. while bitcoin gained 4% (Cointelegraph) my bitcoin bottom thesis vid from the 27th of june with BTC sub 60k -expected time capitulation rather than another big leg down. low came four days later at 57.7k and the 30–40k a lot of people were waiting for never came -if tradfi capitulates and bitcoin holds or moves sideways thats a crypto to tradfi div and a decent sign. the nasdaq just had the biggest one day loss in its history in dollar terms yet BTC is still at 76k -bad news that barely moves the price is a good sign. just had the largest crypto hack on record and BTC held -the sell pressure was coming from perps while spot absorbed it. order flow is showing that again this week -the halving highs at roughly 77k was the pivot I wanted reclaimed. price broke through to 87.4k in september and appears to be back testing it from above (aware it's still early in the month) checked the orderflow on edgevault across binance, bybit, okx and hyperliquid perps -crash hour (3pm UTC yesterday) was perp driven with $446M of net perp selling in one hour, $434M of it on okx while binance perps were actually net buyers -9pm to midnight UTC showed absorption, about $400M more net perp selling while price held 76.1-76.2k and the wick to around 75.1k got bought straight back -two overnight retests around 75.3k both held above that low -8am UTC okx spot net bought 596 BTC (about $45M), the biggest hourly spot buy on okx in the last 30 days -9am UTC $184M of net perp buying, positive on all four venues -coinbase premium is still negative at around -$100 so US spot demand isn't fully back yet next 3-6 months -CPI every month (next is 10th nov, then 10th dec) and the fed on 9th dec, 27th jan and 17th mar -new congress sits from 3rd jan with the democrats in control. they've already said they'll look into the trump family crypto ventures, so expect noise around $TRUMP, WLFI and anything linked -the clarity act stalled in the senate, and if it doesn't move before year end it likely starts from scratch in 2027 -year end tax loss selling and the usual thin holiday liquidity most of this is known in direction and a lot of it already got priced in this week, so I think its more likely to bring intraday volatility than a new leg down. pretty much nothing burgers unless the data or policy surprises well beyond whats expected why I still think this cycle is different -first real cycle driven by institutions, whose time horizon is 10–20 years, not 10–20 minutes -most of retail was trading memecoins or moved to stocks rather than buying BTC, so theres little retail left to capitulate -the record long liquidation happened at the cycle top with no parabolic run before it -price fell short of 2x the prior cycles ATH, yet people still expected a 70–80% drawdown like the others -average monthly volatility is near half that of previous cycles, another sign of a maturing asset -institutions have been net accumulators the whole way down from the highs, not just at the top -governments hold around 645k BTC between them -about a fifth of all Bitcoin (4.09M BTC) sits with tracked entities (ETFs, public and private companies, governments) and likely more that isn't tracked -public companies trimmed about 6.7k BTC this week (around 0.5% of their holdings) while ETFs and governments held unless something out of the ordinary happens its hard to ignore these signs. htf market structure is holding at a clear pivot point and the barrage of bad news has struggled to send this much lower so yeah, not too shabby