pressure-tested and load-bearing
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Joined November 2012
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Tobia DeAngelis retweeted
europe must develop and produce advanced strategic capabilities for independent deterrence.
we @generalcatalyst are co-leading @HypersonicaGmbH's €100M Series B together with @lightspeedvp
read more: hypersonica.com/en/news/hype…
Tobia DeAngelis retweeted
Woah, a potential treatment for food allergies ideated with help from a general purpose LLM and rapidly moved to experimental stage.
Today, in collaboration with Anthropic, we’re excited to share rapid initial progress towards an antibody treatment for food allergy, which affects over 200 million people worldwide, discovered with the help of Claude.
At Divergence Labs, we believe that AI can unlock the next generation of antibody therapeutics with more effective mechanisms than before. Such mechanisms are urgently needed in food allergy, which involve overcoming one of the tightest affinity protein pairs in immunology, IgE and its receptor FcεRI, on mast cells.
Treatment with Xolair—the only approved antibody for food allergy—sequesters circulating IgE, but mast cells remain sensitized for weeks to months due to the extraordinarily slow dissociation of IgE from FcεRI.
We envision a treatment that actively pulls IgE off of FcεRI, without waiting for natural dissociation. Like picking a lock, this requires the right combination of geometry and force.
Our research team, working with Claude, ideated on mechanisms to accomplish this disruption, and converged on an antibody format with two arms with different functions and epitopes. Within one month, we designed, synthesized, and experimentally confirmed the biophysical function of the two arms, which we are now assembling into full therapeutic formats.
Tobia DeAngelis retweeted
"Analysts went with the agent's lean 86% of the time."
"77% repeated the agent's argument in at least one answer, sometimes word for word. Only 15% credited the agent. About half called the final recommendation more their own than the agent's."
Oh my god
Tobia DeAngelis retweeted
Science is not some hobby that serves the self actualization of people in a publicly sponsored job placement program. It is the systematic search for truth.
Tobia DeAngelis retweeted
FT comments never miss.
I don’t think I’ve read such a rational analysis of the situation we’re in for a long time.
I've been in France since 2002 and have never seen the streets so violent nor the politics so extreme. From the sacking of the supermarket on my street to the prospect of Présidente Le Pen, here's me @FT including thoughts from 2 French Nobel laureates as.ft.com/r/addcad57-0f9d-4e…
Tobia DeAngelis retweeted
🚩 When Polymarket or Kalshi says there's a 70% chance something will happen, should we believe it?
Excited to share our new paper, just published in PNAS, in which we examined more than ONE MILLION forecasts from Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, and Metaculus, spanning 12 domains and forecasting horizons ranging from hours to years.
The main finding is striking: Prediction markets and collective forecasting platforms are remarkably well calibrated. When they assign events a 70% probability, those events really do happen about 70% of the time. And this pattern holds surprisingly well across different platforms, domains, and forecasting horizons.
But there's an important twist. When we looked more closely, we discovered systematic biases in some of the domains where forecasting matters most (wars, elections).
For decades, psychologists have documented how poorly humans often reason about probability and uncertainty. Our findings offer an encouraging counterpoint: When judgments and information are aggregated, we can achieve a surprisingly accurate understanding of an uncertain future.
That doesn't mean we can predict what will happen next with certainty. But it does mean that we can be remarkably good at estimating how uncertain the future really is.
This work was a great collaboration. The data for this project was meticulously collected for years by Justin Dickerson, the project was led by Hilla Shinitzky and Maayan Peer, with @mattansb leading the analyses.
📄 Read the paper:
pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.26…
#Forecasting #Polymarket #Kalshi #DecisionScience #PNAS
Tobia DeAngelis retweeted
In July we open-sourced a dynamic graph of everything a child learns in primary school. 1,590 concepts, 3,221 dependencies.
Now we’re turning every concept into interactive experiments kids can play and learn from.
First one, age 7: heat and water.
Everything that used to be a boring textbook can now be an engaging experience, potentially tailored to every child.
Kids education just got a massive upgrade.
Tobia DeAngelis retweeted
Billions of pounds lost on a single project because we can’t connect it to the grid for half a decade and have destroyed our capacity to generate reliable electricity.
Exclusive: Microsoft cancels UK data centre deal with Nscale. Comes just as Nscale hopes to pull off a $35 billion IPO telegraph.co.uk/business/202…
Tobia DeAngelis retweeted
TIL that global spending on alcohol is still larger than AI infrastructure spending this year ($1.7T vs $1.5T)
Tobia DeAngelis retweeted
French Politicians answer to their economy imploding is money is fake. This will end great.
French Presidential Candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon:
They tell us, "We must reassure the markets." Reassure the markets? What are their names? Where do they live? Let me go and reassure them!
What market? What are you talking about? There is no market. There are hedge funds, financial companies and insurance companies.
Tobia DeAngelis retweeted
BREAKING: Further espionage insanity from China
China owns the cars Norway’s soldiers rented for a military exercise. The cars proceeded to recorded the gate codes.
The Home Guard used Hertz vehicles during a September drill in Oslo. Hertz’s ownership runs through Volvo to Zhejiang Geely. Soldiers found stored video of who got in, where they drove, and the codes they typed to open military gates. They kept using the cars. No replacements.
Volvo still says Chinese ownership is not a risk.
This is where reliance on Chinese tech leads you.
Norwegian soldiers discovered that Chinese-owned Volvo rental cars recorded and stored videos during a major military exercise in Oslo from September 14–18.
The footage captured soldiers entering and leaving vehicles, their movements, locations and even security codes used to access restricted areas.
Despite the discovery, the military continued using the cars due to a lack of alternatives.
Source: DN
Tobia DeAngelis retweeted
Two ant colonies have been fighting a war outside San Diego for decades.
~30M die a year. The front line is miles long.
Tobia DeAngelis retweeted
What happens when a single day of AI research produces more mathematics than humanity can absorb in a century?
Imagine millions of superhuman research agents at work. Formal systems may verify the proofs, but humans won’t have enough context to understand the underlying web of machine-invented concepts.
Mathematics could split into two layers:
Machine mathematics: vast, verified, mostly consumed by AIs.
Human mathematics: a compressed “effective theory” of the machine frontier—the small subset of ideas we can understand.
Physics may follow the same path: AIs could explore huge spaces of theories and derive correct predictions using structures no human physicist fully understands.
The key question is whether AI can compress knowledge as fast as it creates it.
My guess: the detailed frontier becomes permanently machine-native, while selected parts are periodically compressed into human-comprehensible principles.
Eventually even deciding what is worth understanding may require AI.
At that point AI is no longer just a scientific tool. Humans are receiving selected explanations from a much larger intellectual civilization they cannot independently grasp.
A number of these results are in theoretical or mathematical physics!
For example: A proof of spontaneous magnetization in quantum Heisenberg ferromagnets (Lean-verified)
If it survives scrutiny, it would be the first rigorous proof of quantum ferromagnetic order and a landmark in mathematical physics, with or without AI.
Claude:
The question is whether, at a low but nonzero temperature and with no external field, an infinite magnet spontaneously picks a direction and becomes magnetized. Physicists have assumed the answer is yes since Bloch's spin-wave theory in the 1930s. Proving it rigorously has been another matter:
Dimensions 1 and 2: the Mermin–Wagner theorem shows it can't happen, so the question is only for 3 or more dimensions.
The classical version (spins as ordinary arrows) was proved by Fröhlich, Simon and Spencer in 1976 using "infrared bounds."
The quantum antiferromagnet (neighbors anti-align) was proved by Dyson, Lieb and Simon in 1978 with a related technique called reflection positivity.
The quantum ferromagnet is the case that stayed open. Reflection positivity doesn't give the needed bound there, which Dyson–Lieb–Simon pointed out themselves. The paper notes that Lieb listed it as an open problem in 1999. Results since then, such as Correggi–Giuliani–Seiringer's 2015 free-energy asymptotics, controlled thermodynamics and finite length scales but never produced an ordered state.
What's claimed
For every dimension d ≥ 3 and every spin S (½, 1, 3/2, …), at all sufficiently low temperatures, there is a translation-invariant infinite-volume equilibrium state (a KMS state, the rigorous definition of "thermal equilibrium" for infinite quantum systems) whose spin expectation is at least S/4. In other words, a genuinely magnetized phase exists.
For spin ½, the paper also derives a consequence for lattice bosons: a form of the long-range order associated with Bose–Einstein condensation.
Tobia DeAngelis retweeted
This is my thesis: no one uses AI. I repeat, absolutely no one. We live in a bubble.
Even among my friends who pay for it, when I ask them to open ChatGPT and show me their queries, it’s the same handful of basic things.
Most don’t even know they can upload a photo and ask questions about it. Connecting Gmail so an agent can read and send emails blows their minds. An agent opening a browser and checking them into a flight? They’ve never even heard of it.
The massive challenge right now is adoption, and then getting people who already signed up to actually use what they’re paying for. Most have absolutely zero clue what’s possible.
Imagine the compute shortage when everyone starts using AI like the top 1% of users do today.
98% of US households aren't paying for AI yet
More charts in State of Markets II: a16z.news/p/state-of-markets…
