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Some more thoughts.
Venezuela played out and probably inspired belief that an attack on Iran would have a similar outcome.
Iran has proved more resilient than most in the west expected. The protests prior to attacks probably helped shape the narrative that regime change was likely and easy to achieve.
The world is now affected in different ways. Each day that the conflict (or now blockade) continues leads to all risks increasing.
Europe/UK biggest risk is access to energy followed by higher prices pushing inflation up. Previous wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have now also ensured that there is little appetite to be involved regardless of how hard US pushes. This risk is compounded by their sanctions on Russia.
Iran risk is regime change and death of individuals. Facing death appears to not faze them and so the question comes down to whether they can outlast the pain being placed on others. Ironically Iran is benefiting financially from the conflict due to higher oil prices and tolls. Whether this is enough to not commit to a ceasefire is anyone's guess. Regardless, to happen, the ceasefire will probably need some type of sweetener which they didn't have before.
China has sat on the sidelines for the past six months. Imo it is feeling some pain but far less than the rest of the world and so its position globally strengthens. It buys oil from Iran and Russia likely at cut prices. The blockade by US of Hormuz creates the first possible flashpoint - what happens when a Chinese flagged vessel passes through. If I were Iran I'd want this to play out. Once one vessel passes through, blockade threat is no longer effective.
US is dominant power of the world however this conflict causes serious challenges. Very little appetite for boots on the ground however without this there is only two scenarios: ceasefire or continued bombardment and global economic pain. Energy supply not an issue and US oil companies will be benefiting greatly. Pain is felt mainly by consumer and smaller businesses through higher prices. There is also a secondary challenge and that's that funding will be massively reduced as lots of it flowed from middle east. Not because they don't want to invest (AI investment mainly via US) but because middle easy has less money (oil sales down) + need to spend more domestically (military defence + infrastructure repairs). This is important because we're expecting three big IPOs (space X, anthropic and OpenAI).
Backdrop is also intriguing. Many world leaders unsure what solution is and don't know president's next move. Vice president (up until peace talks) has been in the shadows - my guess is that getting VP to lead peace talks was a way to make him part of conflict + helped reassure economy that ceasefire was serious. For vice President there is a challenge, ceasefire and whether its obtained will now be put on him. Probably hardest part of first four months of 2026 and could make or break his bid to be president.
I lean we get ceasefire which probably benefits Iran more than most would like. Will still be one that president and vice president can hail as a win. Main reason being the unwillingness to be drawn into long conflict with boots on ground.
If conflict continues beyond ceasefire deadline then I think world economy may really get hit as bad as COVID.
Thanks for reading.
Some thoughts today.
The world is in an increasingly uncertain phase of human history. The exponential development of AI means AGI is creeping closer and those close appear to be willing to do anything to reach it first. This plus an ongoing new cold war between the West and China/Russia means what happens a couple of months from now, let alone years, is hard to predict.
USD is devaluing and will likely continue to do so as trade war deepens (89% of global trade conducted in dollars) and leads to digital yuan being used more.
Gold is reaching new ATHs daily which, imo, feeds into dollar devaluation as more countries switch their reserves focus (59% of world foreign reserves held in USD)
Digital currencies are also now starting to open up the possibility of a new currency flows, using rails that don't involve the western banking system and that are underpinned by Chinese tech. This probably leads to a bipolar monetary order.
Long term power will lie with whoever reaches AGI first AND has access to the necessary natural resources to power and build it. Interestingly, China having relatively large control on certain rare earth minerals is it's ace card in any trade war.
The above probably pushes countries to take drastic actions. China and the USA.
Venezuela has access to large amounts of natural resources. Other countries (Iran, Saudi Arabia, China and Russia) are less accessible. This morning's headlines are already pointing to the direction that we're possibly headed.
Taiwan is important because of the chips it manufactures. It's also land that China contests is it's own.
Now add in the fact that retirees are living longer (ai will advance this further) and less babies are being born. We're approaching a point in time where the retired outnumber the working and, in turn, can no longer afford to be supported.
We have western economies that are already struggling and voters, frustrated by the lack of development and change, moving towards parties that are more insular. Parties that promise more nationalistic foreign policies. Ultimately leading to not only a divided world but also divided countries. This is the case for every western country (can't think of many exceptions).
All of these factors, imo, mean that the world as we know it will stop. If we're lucky, maybe somehow AI saves us and we do enter into a period of abundance. If we're unlucky, society as we know it breaks.
In both scenarios, bitcoin will increase in value alongside gold, and resources that are finite.
gamify the rewards - probably leads to 2xing what you're putting up
We've been thinking a lot about how to grow the Pumpfun app to 10 million users in the fastest way possible.
After dedicating significant resources to building the most performant product in the market and introducing crypto’s most novel rewards system in callout rewards, the answer was obvious: reward the community who help us grow the Pumpfun App.
Despite our relentless belief in our own ability to grow the app, strength in numbers >>>
So far, we’ve spent nearly $20,000,000 in ~2 months rewarding our users via Callout Rewards, but that isn’t enough - our vision is to make the Pumpfun app the most rewarding app on Earth.
Introducing referrals and allowing the Callout Rewards pot to organically grow via a platform fee fixes this.
The issue with our prior approach was that users wouldn’t necessarily be able to capture the upside in the network’s growth. Even if the Pumpfun App grew 10x, users would have no guarantee that the Callout Rewards pot, for instance, would scale past the ~$300k/day that it’s been averaging thus far.
Why invest your time and social capital building your Pumpfun profile if you don’t have certainty around the longevity and scalability of the total pot? Users deserve to have certainty and the potential to capture a part of the app’s upside.
With the introduction of fees - which are LOWER than any social trading app - we’re able to continue spending millions of our own dollars on in-app incentives like Callout Rewards, trading competitions, and so much more.
All platform fees that do NOT go to referrals will go towards INCREASING the Callout Rewards pot. $300k/day is the baseline.
The Pumpfun app is already the most rewarding platform in crypto by a wide margin, and now anyone can get EVEN more exposure to its growth by helping us grow it.
An app with endless upside. An app built to reward its users.
Sent from my Pumpfun App
This literally is a shout to @NetNetCap
If you believe that the team is building and will continue to build then, as hard as it is, all the community needs to do is turn up and cheerlead and not panic and let the price keep sliding down.
I want the treasury to buy as much net as possible but also at the absolute cheapest price they can. If thats 10mil MC then great, it means they buy a shit tonne of supply and continue to have a treasury to build.
Genuinely comes down to whether the team can ship new innovative products that increase revenue.
If you think the team rug pulls then sell.
i pay more attention to how a memecoin community behaves during a 70-80% drawdown than when the price is going up
the strongest communities tend to stay active, keep creating content and bring in new people even when momentum disappears
attention drives memecoins, but i believe the ability to sustain that attention through difficult periods is one of the most important things to look for
Relay event in teams probably works decently
$Net thoughts.
NetNet feels like a no brainer play where I should chuck in a substantial % of my portfolio and pray. RR here feels like a generational play but I've never been good at going all in. Added another 5K to LP it downwards but my guts telling me to call the markets bluff and buy as much as I can.
Basis is pretty simple.
Narrative:
@NetNetCap has a treasury of about $25m.
@NetNetCap is the largest owner of most big RWAs on RH chain.
Team:
@NetNetCap has one of the best Devs I've seen when it comes to understanding crypto and grafting. Ironically the continuous churn of products is maybe the biggest risk
Community:
Check any post by @NetNetCap and I think you'd struggle to find another token that has as consistent engagement.
Fud:
I think main fud is around the continued increase in supply and that revenue has been artificially inflated. On the supply increases, this is only an issue when price is much higher (so i don't mind).
On the revenue being artificially inflated, I lean that it probably has BUT i don't think it matters anymore. The treasury has grown too big too quickly for it to be as important. All that is needed now is one big revenue driver.
Some ideas:
1. I would be interested in seeing @NetNetCap just adding a decent amount of liquidity downwards. Current FDV is $33m. Call the markets bluff and let the token drop another 50% but do it into the team's USD. Fees become another revenue source.
2. I think there is an interesting possibility of a partnership with @blknoiz06 - purchase $300K of $Ansem for the treasury and in return get @blknoiz06 on as an advisor.
3. I know all attention will be on the upcoming game. There are other proven areas if this fails that with the capital you could quickly pivot and steal marketshare.
100% boys. Just please add the USD into an LP down to that 210 mark. Worst case, you don't buy as much as planned. Best case, you net fees and accumulate at a lower price!!
$NET cannot go to zero. The immutable core contracts set backing at $173 right now, including the RWA sleeve its over $210.
At these levels we are aggressively buying $NET . uncapped upside with a worse case 50% drawdown.
The treasury continues to climb, V3 RWBs turn off dilution, we have $1M in stables coming to the credit desk today which we will use to buy more $NET.
Overall, we've grown our treasury to nearly $26M in under 3 months, we have basically built all of 2021-22 DeFi in under 3 months, We've delivered brand new on-chain experiences including on no-loss lotteries, no-loss sportsbooks, an advance rebase desk, and more. We have the largest morpho blue market on RH chain, and we have not even released our bluechip (frontier) product yet.
We've also done all of this without any public acknowledgement of any kind from RobinHood yet. Worth mentioning.
A bet on $NET is a bet that our team will be able to grow the treasury past the pace of emissions. So far that bet has been correct, but it is clear that additional revenue streams outside of bonds are required for the next leg up.
I am betting that we can deliver.
I actually think the team would be better adding half of whatever they want to buy in USD as liquidity and collecting fees on anyone that wants to capitulate.
Every few hours you remove the Net that you've bought and leave USD. Another income source without doing anything.
NetNet.
$PRM had potential and genuinely felt like it could have solved a major issue. The problem is the amount of time between launches, this space has a finite amount of attention and unfortunately going weeks without a new launch doesn't work.
Think it doesn't make sense to sell here IMO given we probably get a pump on next launch. Ironically if we go low enough and that launch goes well, it's actually bullish for the buy and burn of token.
good to see Coinbase pushing out bits like this. Legend Trade inspired but good to see regardless!
I don't think the game to play is the sniping or competing at launch. I definitely can't and see it as a waste of time.
On the plus side, there have been so many tokens that have either pulled back post launch and then run or that have just sat there for a while before running.
Really interesting to see how this plays out. Backpack feels like the only other that has done this!!
Building the next chapter of Extended
Over the past 1.5 years, Extended has grown into a proven crypto native trading venue with strong adoption, deep liquidity and a rapidly expanding product offering.
We launched a novel implementation of RFQ markets, enabling endless markets while retaining the benefits of a competitive order book market structure. We expanded to 280+ markets in total, including 100+ RWA markets, and continued building the product and liquidity infrastructure behind a much broader market offering. This is the foundation. Now we are building on top of it.
The next step: unlocking Europe
CFD brokers, fintechs, and distribution partners already reach millions of European traders who want perps, prediction markets, and on-chain products. This is where we see an opportunity in Europe to combine crypto-native product depth with a regulatory framework designed to support broader distribution.
That is why we are building a regulated path into Europe as a major expansion of our existing business. Extended remains a global, crypto-native venue. The European setup adds a dedicated regulated framework designed to unlock two channels that are otherwise closed: direct access to EU retail users and B2B distribution through brokers, fintechs and consumer platforms.
We believe Extended is uniquely positioned for that.
Today, we already have:
- Product: one of the widest RWA offerings across order book and RFQ markets
- Liquidity: battle-tested infrastructure and Tier 1 liquidity
- Distribution: 500+ affiliates built with zero paid marketing, a partnership with one of the largest CFD brokers and growing demand from other major distribution partners
What this means for TGE
Choosing a regulated path in the EU also shapes how we prepare for TGE.
What that involves:
- Regulatory work: progressing the legal and regulatory process around the token and our broader setup in Europe
- Corporate structure: putting in place the entities required to support the token launch, our broader regulatory setup and the next phase of products, including spot.
- Token framework: developing sustainable tokenomics. Full tokenomics will be shared ahead of TGE.
We are optimising for the right balance of speed and long-term strength, building the structure, liquidity and distribution needed for the launch to hold up at scale.
The ambition is bigger than a TGE.
We want Extended to become a leading on-chain trading venue combining:
- crypto native infrastructure
- deep liquidity with strong execution across core order book markets
- the ability to list endless RWA and long-tail crypto markets through our RFQ system
- distribution across crypto native and traditional trading audiences, both directly and through partners
- a regulatory foundation built for scale
There are still important parts of this roadmap that we are not ready to share yet, but we are committed to keeping the community informed and sharing more as soon as we reasonably can.
This makes sense and was picked up in the threadguy episode with flood. Basically the amount they held was too much compared to overall market cap
KEN GRIFFIN: WE HAVE SHED MORE THAN 80% OF THE AGGREGATE RISK WE TOOK ON FROM OUR SITUATIONAL AWARENESS PORTFOLIO.
So, Citadel creates fear in the market by saying there will be a rate hike to cause a liquidation of these high beta semiconductor names.
Then, they buy up all of Leopold's leveraged exposure for 40-50 cents on the dollar.
Two weeks later on August 11th, they issue a note to clients saying that they think the market is ready to "systematically start buying" the names that got sold off.
Then today, Ken Griffin tells investors that they sold most of their exposure which means he unwound those names in the past 2 weeks after their massive reversals from July.
Wall Street is ruthless.
I genuinely think Frank is one of the people we should be encouraging to go again with a new startup. If you want the space to expand we need people like Frank to lead the way.
Ironically I think it has to be a killer idea as Frank is obviously doing well for himself trading. I still think he'll come back though as the drive to leave a legacy is big (say this after meeting him for 20 seconds in Paris four years ago).
Ps: DeGods was a success - the issue is that there is a constant stream of new holders that at any given time will be down on their initial purchase and (for whatever reason) become toxic. (imo) the only downside to DeGods (and almost all collections) was that they didn't create a sustainable revenue that wasn't holder driven.
“After my DeGods ordeal” of running an NFT project for 4 years, delivering a 333x on mint, a free cumulative 5 figures in airdrops during a deep bear market?
Also, find any proof or evidence that I *ever* traded on side wallets the ENTIRE time the “vape cabal” fake stories were at peak virality.
This is a completely false narrative. I’m proud of the way I operated the entire bull market, have zero to hide.
I was NOT involved in Libra, never deployed any AI coins, and did 100% of my trades on ONE wallet.
To this day there is 0 evidence of me doing the things that many people in this space believe are true.
The simple fact is every NFT launched in 2020-2022 is down 90%+ from all time high. 99% of them rugged on mint day.
Truth is if you think I’m a bad actor, you’re just an NPC and have no idea how fucking horrible the “idols” of this industry are.
The PumpFun approach makes massive sense given their big warchest. Biggest mistake is naming other apps. Just say sponsor exclusive trading with us.
Fomo has to take it as a compliment and confirmation they're doing well. Plenty of space for both imo (and more).
Always interested here to understand why @shawmakesmagic doesn't launch an nft collection (my guess is it mints out for $1m almost instantly).
Presume it's more tiresome than fundraising (which says alot about how impatient nft communities were)
I don’t always fundraise
But when I do, I build power tools to ensure success and I share them
Here’s a gift for my founder friends
We are taking checks btw. Raising $1m on a $20m capped safe post money. Hit me up if you want in.
github.com/lalalune/outreach…
Easiest approach (albeit not necessarily best) is to subtract a slippage fee. Likelihood is that a person accepts that alot more willingly imo
I do think Rasmr has an opportunity to really grow his audience and brand if he continues being so open and public. The one thing listeners want is to be taken along the journey with you and not many are open to doing that.
It's the one aspect I wish @notthreadguy would add. I know he's long FWA and Pump but would love to follow his buys and sells. Makes the journey more real.
Also realise there's major downside when you start losing some trades as ppl get in your head. Not sure @rasmr_eth has necessarily had a massive downturn yet!
@osf_rekt through @RektMkts is now sharing trades publicly in live time and has received a fair bit of love so far.
@blknoiz06 is another but because market bubble is weekly it's trickier to bring community along with you as this space changes so quickly. I actually think he should be churning out more daily content (even if it's market bubble clips just giving immediate thoughts on things as they happen).
All doing amazing regardless but interesting to see different approaches.
Rasmr reveals he's up $172,000 in 30 days with every trade done in public
"30 day P&L +$172,000. Every trade was discussed on stream, every trade was done in public. None of these were quick flips, none of them. We just did it the correct way in public."
"I don't know if anyone's done it quite like this. A lot of the big P&L traders are doing low caps and micro caps. I'm just doing narrative swings and hitting."