Sentiment on lithium has turned very negative, mostly on the back of unrelated bits of information. So let's talk numbers, not opinions. What do we actually know? Demand. The hard data: China's battery production through August 2026 is up the equivalent of ~400kt LCE vs last year. If we carry only part of that growth through to year-end, Chinese batteries alone add at least ~500kt LCE of demand vs 2025. Supply. Here the only hard data is exporters' trade statistics. Change vs 2025, in kt LCE (YTD Aug → full-year 2026F): 🇦🇺 Australia: +30 → +60 🇨🇱 Chile: +70 → +50 🇦🇷 Argentina: +30 → +65 🇧🇷 Brazil: -10 → -15 🌍 Africa: +50 → +65 🇨🇦 Canada: 0 → 0 🇨🇳 China: +40 → +70 (the softest number) Total: +210 → ~+295 Even after adding the production that projects and producers have announced, 2026 supply growth comes to roughly 300kt. It's not much more than that. It can't be much more than that. So for 2026: Demand: +500kt Supply: ~+300kt Balance: a deficit of ~200kt LCE The deficit is already here. 2027? The bears say demand will pull back. That's much harder to agree or disagree with. But the inventory drawdown happening right now will clearly push the market into deficit. Figures and views are iLiMarkets' assessment.