When I'm not investing to generate ethical returns, you can find me biking, skiing and traveling. #familyoffice #investment #realestate #crypto
New York City
Joined March 2009
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Tom Watts, CFA, CAIA, CFP retweeted
Apollo just released a 48 page report on their outlook for public and private markets
Few charts that caught my eye
1/ Marine fuel price at major hubs have seen a massive shock due to recent geopolitical conflict
Tom Watts, CFA, CAIA, CFP retweeted
Just created a complete analysis of AI infrastructure opportunities covering chip manufacturers, power companies and system integrators.
I shared this analysis with my 20,000+ students.
For 24 hours, it's yours for FREE.
Like, RT & Comment "AI" and I'll DM it to you.
Tom Watts, CFA, CAIA, CFP retweeted
The secret of hedge funds is revealed in a 41-page PDF:
This paper analyzed 464 stocks that 10X-ed over a 24-year period.
Here are the best factors that drive outperformance: (number 3 is the best 🧵)
Tom Watts, CFA, CAIA, CFP retweeted
One of the best investing clips you’ll ever watch.
Seth Klarman, the value investing legend behind Baupost.
He almost never does interviews but he did this one.
Save this, I promise you’ll come back to it.
Tom Watts, CFA, CAIA, CFP retweeted
I prefer to be aligned with
- Buffett
- Druckenmiller
- Paul Tudor Jones
- Tepper
- Dalio
Think and behave like the experts
They have battled through the decades
And do not stick their head in the sand
They prepare and are telling you how to prepare
Tom Watts, CFA, CAIA, CFP retweeted
FYI: My latest "Weekly Look at the Global Economy and Markets:"
linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-lo…
mohamedelerian.substack.com/…
#economy #markets #jobs #Inflation #federalreserve #China #UK #Europe #AI #investing #investors
Tom Watts, CFA, CAIA, CFP retweeted
What is catching my eye is that while sentiment is leaning bullish among retail investors and Wall Streeters, corporate insiders are selling at the highest level since 2000. The chart below shows the Vicker’s Insider Sell/Buy index. Typically, this index only produces meaningful signals at market lows when CEOs and the like buy their company stocks at depressed levels. They have all kinds of reasons to sell shares, including for compensation, so there is usually little signal there. That may well be the case today, but given the conversation about valuation and bubbles and loft earnings goals, the current 25:1 sell/buy ratio is something that gives me pause.
Tom Watts, CFA, CAIA, CFP retweeted
The arrogance of today’s retail investor base when it comes to information they dismiss or opinions they disagree with, due primarily to stock price performance, is hitting ATH’s every day now.
Tom Watts, CFA, CAIA, CFP retweeted
So almost 100% of the current US Savings Rate ($1.3T) is retail investors buying equities.
Tom Watts, CFA, CAIA, CFP retweeted
"In the past four business cycles, a move above one standard deviation has preceded equity market corrections."
@joebrusuelas
Tom Watts, CFA, CAIA, CFP retweeted
The Dow Jones to Gold Ratio is about to cross a level only seen 4 times in history.
2008, 1973 and 1929
Tom Watts, CFA, CAIA, CFP retweeted
It's official:
For the first time in 2025, the Fed just cut interest rates by 25 basis points and "blamed" a weaker labor market.
Immediately after, the US Dollar fell to its weakest level since February 2022.
What's coming next? Let us explain.
(a thread)
Tom Watts, CFA, CAIA, CFP retweeted
"The unemployment rate for recent college graduates is rising for men and falling for women."
- Apollo Sløk
Tom Watts, CFA, CAIA, CFP retweeted
According to the September BIE Survey from the Atlanta Fed (released today), firms see the weakest sales and profit margins since May. Usually, if firms see a margin squeeze and weaker sales, they'll take steps to curb costs.
Tom Watts, CFA, CAIA, CFP retweeted
Dayum.
HVAC giant Carrier’s CEO said he expects Q3 sales to be down 40% yoy.
Lowest volumes in over a decade.
What does this say about the housing market? 💀
Tom Watts, CFA, CAIA, CFP retweeted
This is a shocking chart. It's foreign owned U.S. Treasuries held by the Federal Reserve. Every drop has been a liquidity crisis.
When foreign governments or banks need Dollars the Treasuries exit.
It's now lower than the depths of the 2020 crash 🚨
youtu.be/fj1JW5MsPj8?t=454
This quoted post is unavailable.
Tom Watts, CFA, CAIA, CFP retweeted
Anna is correct below when she says:
"I have not seen a meeting with so much contradictions."
---
This meeting was a mess.
See the labels in the dot plot below.
One member of the FOMC thinks the Fed is going to HIKE rates this year. One (Stephen Miran) thinks it is going to cut 1.25% this year (5 cuts over two meetings).
And see the spread of dots above (from highest to lowest), the FOMC is showing little to no agreement on what they should do. Yet it was an 11-1 vote. This rigging of the voting to create the illusion of a "consensus" and then publishing a wide dot plot like this only serves to undermine their credibility even further.
Add to this is Powell using the term "Risk Management" to describe this cut. If this is the case now, then the Fed cannot also be data dependent. Both cannot be true at the same time.
So, how are they making these “Risk Management” policy decisions?
I fear that a "Risk Management" cut is a political decision. He wants to get Trump off his back.
Has the Fed voluntarily given up its independence? Trump is not doing it to the Fed; they are doing it to themselves.
So the median Fomc participant raised the growth forecast for 25’— implying gdp at potential growth pace, or perhaps even higher given slowdown in immigration, in H2.
It also lowered the UR projection for 26’ and 27’.
And it is talking about downside risks to employment having increased.
I have not seen a meeting with so much contradictions.
