$ASTS - Character Change-ing?
Up so far today on bad news or good news (pending perspective). Whereas, last several months, been down on bad news and good news alike.
The emotional intelligence and opinions of X is astounding. The complaining about:
"AST has to be vertically integrated like SX and BO to compete".
Now, "AST signs deal to build its own rocket" and everyone still complains.
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$ASTS - First instinct…“black”.
“Black” isn’t a coincidence but hints directly at USG applications like: nat sec, military and ISR.
Blackbird. Black Hawk. Blackjack. Blackwater.
AST SpaceMobile to Build Own 20-Ton Rocket to Deploy BlueBird Satellites in Low Earth Orbit Using Miranda Engines from Firefly Aerospace.
businesswire.com/news/home/2…
#ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds #Blacklift
$ASTS - When 1 POP ends, another one begins…working its way through spiral development 🌀
Build👉🏽test👉🏽deploy👉🏽learn👉🏽modify👉🏽scale
$ASTS was previously awarded as subcontractor to STR for SDA's Space-Based Sensing and Targeting (SBST)🛰️🇺🇸
"SDA has determined that the capabilities to be demonstrated under this STA are of significant interest to the Department of War"
"Demo will inform of ongoing assessment of proliferated commercial space architecture for TACSATCOM and sensing"
"Grant advances an important national security objective"
Notably, FA24012490018 was awarded to STR in January 2024 for $80M as a DARPA R&D initiative with a POP expiring in 2 months.
Last month, SSC awarded $615M in new SB-AMTI OTAs to "rapid maturing new technologies" so that Space Force can "pivot and scale" the "development and integration of sensing technologies." STR was an awardee.
The timing is no coincidence as their prior DARPA demonstration ends; a new scalable, operational procurement begins.
teapawt.net/jusbar23/status/209740…
teapawt.net/tuff_4r/status/2088317…
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$ASTS - adding symmetry for more confluence.
Here are the facts: The 200 week is right below at $33. Weekly RSI is approaching oversold and back to where we traded $1.97. We have the .786 retracement fib and the start of a massive volume shelf at $30. We’re back testing prior highs and have completely unwound the entire move. Our market cap is 13.8 billion & we have around 3 billion of cash. We don’t need to raise. Price is awful, but we’re approaching levels where the odds of a bottom are really stacking up. In technical terms, we call it confluence. The greed is gone and we’re back to good old investing. I’ll be adding at the 200 week next. $ASTS
$ASTS - Spooky season...what is the extent of these oversold conditions?
👉🏼 100 days peak to trough decline, at -70%
👉🏼 90 days below 50SMA, at -35%
👉🏼 80 days below the 200SMA, at -50%
👉🏼 6 consecutive days below lower BB
Historically, this has produced a low with sharp forward 2 month gains.
$ASTS To add to this post, the most the stock has traded below the 200 day was 50% and it’s happened a couple of times in the past, January 2022, December 2022 and April 2024.
All 3 times the stock rallied 120% over the next month, 100% the following 2 months and 500% over the following 2 months respectively. This is the 4th time.
Tough to bet against those odds and we have one of the highest short interest readings on record for the stock.
$ASTS - Is October 2026 really April 2024 in real time?
Sentiment was as dark in April 2024.
Back then the distance to recent highs was as great. Bollinger bands as tight. And it hasn’t been again until now.
Then it ended with a TTM squeeze, like the one we see now. And a flush on volume.
$ASTS
Back then the funding valley of death bottom. Now the production valley of death bottom.
Maximum negativity marks the best buying opportunities.
They keep crying. You should keep buying.
$ASTS has drawdown about 70%. This was about the maximum peak to trough decline during the bear cycle.
Price in AH was $0.49 away from filling the $39.21 open gap up.
RSI and STO are still negative and failed to breakout twice.
$ASTS - Change of Character
Bear Cycle had (6) 60-70% drawdowns
Bull Cycle has/had (5) 40-50% drawdowns.
The current drawdown is 60% as weekly STO and RSI fail to breakout.
Could a fill the gap at $39 be in play - which would be a 70% drawdown?
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$ASTS - RSI made HL as price made LL...
It looks a lot like Jan 29-30 2025:
👉🏼 -10% down day outside lower BB followed by,
👉🏼 1% up day
Let's see what tomorrow brings.
(I've taken my crazy pills)
$ASTS - Current vs. January 2025...both have similar structure:
👉🏼 RSI bound between 35-55
👉🏼 identical descending slope
👉🏼 50SMA rejection
👉🏼 vol flush to 20% below 50SMA
👉🏼 support at prior demand zone
$UFO remains positive YTD, outperforming and tracking its MTE year analog. The $40–42 support floor is being tested amid bearish but improving technicals. If it holds, the analog suggests a buyable dip EOM + HHs into YE.
$ASTS is underperforming both YTD and its MTE analog, yet remains strongly correlated with $UFO.
Sector support may be an important tell for $ASTS.
