My first Substack article is live.
I charted every SEC Team's advanced player metrics from this past season and ranked them 16-1.
I spent a lot of time on this! And will thread each team below.
More to come on Substack (Kentucky-specific deep dive coming soon). Subscribe!
Just watched the exhibition
Completely agree with this
I will say though…. something I brought up a couple of times this offseason and will be looking out for in the beginning of the season:
Zoom is best w the ball in his hands
Alex is as well IMO
Mason (so far) seems to be a great pairing with either of them bc he looks really impactful off ball as a catch and shoot guy
Thats not to say he is better than either of them. But it’ll be worth looking at if Mason compliments Zoom and Alex better than they compliment each other
Not a problem at all currently, and Mason looking good early is overall a great thing! Just something of note
Basically a poll telling us 5 SEC teams had a better offseason than Kentucky
Now they gotta roll the ball out and play
There’s a chance Pope got what he wanted, the team performs to our expectations, and everything is fine
There’s also a chance he just didn’t get enough firepower. At a place where that should be easier than anywhere else almost
We’ll see! Time to play
Zoom+Alex
- Combined for 7 TO’s ❌❌❌❌ I talked about it all offseason but this really worries me
- POA Defense looked…. Fine? Liked Alex’s activity off-ball on occasion
Ousmane+McBride
- Loved Ousmane’s defensive activity. The rebounding also looked sufficient
- Definitely better floor spreaders than last year’s PFs!
Malachi
- Looked stronger 👍
KENTUCKY HOOPS TONIGHT
None of these games prove anything until Kansas, but these are the early season details ill be watching out for
Zoom+Alex
- Turnovers
- POA Defense
Ousmane+McBride
- Rebounding Effort
- Viability as Floor Spacers
Malachi
- Improved Lob Threat with Better Creators
If there are noticeable improvements in these areas, this team has a high ceiling
KENTUCKY HOOPS TONIGHT
None of these games prove anything until Kansas, but these are the early season details ill be watching out for
Zoom+Alex
- Turnovers
- POA Defense
Ousmane+McBride
- Rebounding Effort
- Viability as Floor Spacers
Malachi
- Improved Lob Threat with Better Creators
If there are noticeable improvements in these areas, this team has a high ceiling
CONSENSUS PRESEASON MBB POWER RANKINGS
National Writers (with recent/updated rankings) along with our best Analytics Models. This is our consensus top 28 right now. Imagining things will still change with the 5th years but who knows. Tired of waiting around
Rank "31" indicates not on their rankings
5 Teams I am higher on:
- Duke (yes)
- Texas
- Alabama
- Kentucky
- Texas Tech
5 Teams I am lower on:
- Illinois
- Michigan
- Kansas
- Iowa State
- USC
Thoughts? Anyone else I should add to this?
Pope has had enough misfires this offseason for me to think he will never reach the standard that UK has set in regards to team building
He's a good X and O's coach I truly believe that
But if you can't build a true contender at a school with top 3 $$, top 3 history, and a top 3 platform in College Basketball, then you probably shouldn't be there. Regardless of your in-game abilities
Good thought exercise! There's a chance I'm missing someone, but I counted 9 teams last year that met the same qualifications
8 of the 9 teams were top 15 KenPom (NC State woof)
- 3 went to Elite Eight, 6 went to Sweet Sixteen, and of course Michigan won it all
Florida/Vandy lose in the R32, NC State barely even sneaks into the tourney
But in terms of overall success, very high hit rate for creating a great team IMO
(Yes I snuck Xaivian Lee in at 5.9 BPM but UF missing the criteria by 0.1 feels silly)
PROVEN PRODUCTION MATTERS
There are 8 teams heading into next season with a trio of players that posted >6 BPM last season (Minimum 40% Min Played)
A threshold Michigan also met last year with their threesome of Yaxel/Mara/Morez (referenced in bottom right)
A lot of consensus top 10 teams right now! Probably not a coincidence!
Kentucky ended up in a great spot.
Sidenote - If Aden plays + Fielder translates, we might be underrating Alabama
UK’s latest commit Mark Mitchell - PASSING Tape (just from his final game!)
The scoring is awesome and people have seen those highlights, but don’t sleep on the creation part of his game. Produces even when the shot isn’t falling (like in this game)
I think Mark is gonna have a lot of fun sharing the court with Milan and Malachi. Only makes them better.
Its annoying how contained our excitement has to be for this lol
Almost September, we are adding someone who undoubtedly makes us a Final Four contender, but the NCAA is in such a disheveled state that we are like “who knows if this matters! It’ll probably work out but maybe not!”
I meant Milan Momcilovic and Mark Mitchell
Duke will probably clobber Louisville (like they will with everyone) but I'm using this tweet as an example to say I want us to do a better job at having nuance with "Size" in basketball.
People play bigger or smaller than their size ALL THE TIME. Size matters, but you also gotta use it!
6'9" Flory Bidunga:
2.6 BPG and 9.0 RPG on 32 MPG
9% Block Rate, 18% Def Reb Rate, 11% Off Reb Rate
6'11" Pat Ngongba:
1.1 BPG and 5.8 RPG on 22 MPG
6% Block Rate, 18% Def Reb Rate, 12% Off Reb Rate
Does the 2 inches really matter at the C position when he is blocking more shots and rebounding at the same efficiency?
Obviously it can still be advantageous in specific scenarios, but how much?
Louisville is going to be really good next year.
3pt shooting is pretty mediocre and could lose them a game or two, but they are going to be really good along the margins. The rebounding (even the guards!), TO suppression, TO creation, and rim protection will be great.
I think concerns about Shelstad being the lead guard for a team like this is fair, but I honestly think hes more likely to play 4th fiddle than 2nd fiddle.
Expecting an Adrian Wooley leap after year 1 of high major hoops. Expecting consistent winning production from Alvaro Folgueiras. I am a fan of Montgomery's attributes.
UK fans want to downplay this roster, but I think its better to prepare for them to be a top 10-15 regular season team as of now.
Its okay to say we think Zoom/Wilkins pairing will work
It also is completely sensible to question if it will or not IMO.
I believe there is some credence to having complimentary skills in your backcourt rather than a redundancy of skills.
EX: Pairing a defender with a non-defender, pairing a shooter with a non-shooter, pairing a low TO guy with a high TO guy (Demary+Ball, Boozer+Foster, Smith+Loyer)
Zoom and Wilkins pairing:
- both historically high TO% players
- Zoom will probably be fine as a defender in the SEC but there are some real questions about Wilkins on that side of the ball, and neither of them are lockdown guys OR stocks creators
- Changing Wilkins role at the same time as he makes the MidMaj to HiMaj jump also leaves room for a lot of variance. I (as we all do) expect a better 3pt shooting season, but it almost HAS to happen for this to work
I 100% a world where it works. Zoom could have better ball security as a PG with more talent around him, and Wilkins could easily shoot 38% and they do end up complimenting each other.
There also could be some issues defensively at POA, some shooting slumps as a pairing, and a lot of turnovers against a team with defensive-minded guards.
A sneak peak of what I am currently writing about!
Lot's of good with this team, but there are certainly some question marks too
What's the biggest worry for this team going into this season? My worry is the lack of depth at the 5. If Franck can stay healthy then great, but he has only played two full seasons in his six year college career. #BBN




















