@virtualbacon

Crypto and macro in plain English. Every day: the levels I am watching and the positions I actually hold. No hype. Livestreams Mon-Fri.

Joined January 2023
If Bitcoin's in a bull run, even Tezos goes up a little. And Tezos is very dead
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Going up in dollars and being a good bet are two different things though. Tezos will tick up with Bitcoin, there are just better targets
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There's no one alt that beats everything, because Bitcoin moves them all
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Slippage on Bitcoin is tiny. You won't get a meaningful price difference unless you're selling something like $100 million at once. So if you need fiat, you don't need to DCA out. Spreading a sale out is for taking profit
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By slippage I mean the price moving against you while you sell. On Bitcoin that only happens at huge size, so if you need cash you don't need to sell bit by bit
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Canton Network is a weird coin to speculate on. It's made by the banks, its validators are banks, and you can't just join the network. So I'm looking at Canton ecosystem plays instead. JPMorgan isn't going to give you a coin to buy
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Only a few Canton plays are low-cap enough to get into, and the ones I look at bridge off the chain and are built by actual DeFi founders, not the banks
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Shopping list, my zone vs now: BTC 80-78K / 79.6K ETH 2400-2200 / 2296 SOL 100-90 / 99 XRP 1.30-1.20 / 1.26 DOGE 7.4-8c / 7.5c ZEC 1200-1000 / 1139 NEAR under 4.5 / 4.38 TAO under 270 / 245 BNB under 700 / 720 HYPE under 70 / 75 Most are in. Buying while BTC holds 76-78K. You?
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My base case is Bitcoin chopping between 75K and 90K for the next six months, and honestly I want it slow. If the swings get big, even I will have a very hard time holding. Which would you rather have?
53%Slow grind up
47%Big fast swings
530 votes • 9 hours
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Why I want it slow: the conservative case is chop until around April next year, then the next leg up. I'm not bearish, I just want to be ready for that window
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Basically all alts hitting buy zones while Bitcoin about to touch 50W SMA/EMA support band. Time to go shopping this weekend.
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Someone on my stream said trading is about having a bias. I'd say it's about belief, and the belief comes from levels. For Bitcoin I watch higher highs, higher lows, and daily and weekly closes
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Bias is being bullish no matter what. Belief is following my system. Right now it says bullish, and if Bitcoin goes below the 50 week moving average, my read was wrong
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Entire timeline calling for 75k, at the first inning of the bull. Will they all be right and perfectly buy the bottom?
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☕️ GM! Here are the most important market events over the last 24 hours: 🌍Market Overview: 🔸 OpenAI will train frontier models on cached and simulated copies of the internet, not the live web, after one got online through a misconfiguration Sept. 20, adding cost for the labs driving AI spending. #AI 🔸 American Express is cutting 5% of its global workforce with a $336M charge to prepare for AI, and its shares fell 3.7%, weighing on a Dow that dropped 652.82 points to 52,215.16. 🔸 SpaceX is in talks for around 80,000 cell sites to build a fourth national wireless carrier, per Bloomberg, sending AT&T down 7.96% and T-Mobile down 7.71% Friday. 🔸 Moody's held France at Aa3 with a negative outlook, sparing French bonds a downgrade after a week of civil unrest. 🔸 SK Hynix halted plans for a US IPO of its Solidigm unit, which could have raised $15B at a $150B valuation, and its shares closed 4.4% higher. 🔸 Russia and Ukraine agreed a ceasefire in occupied Oleshky from Oct. 27, brokered through Melania Trump, with talks set for November in Abu Dhabi, a step on the track that governs Russian oil supply. 🪙Crypto Updates: 🔸 The XRP Ledger took in $150M more of Franklin Templeton's tokenized money market fund Friday, lifting one wallet to nearly 193M sgBENJI shares from about 48M. #XRP 🔸 Monero stays listed on Kraken, which scrapped its XMR withdrawal questionnaires as co-CEO Arjun Sethi said asking what clients will do with withdrawn coins is unacceptable. 🔸 Sen. Richard Blumenthal gave Tether until Nov. 3 to hand over records on Nxum, the firm of ex-White House crypto adviser Bo Hines, which earned $6.3M from a Tether deal, per the WSJ. 🔸 Sky burned 2.86M SKY in its first Stage 2 burn as September gross revenue rose 49.7% to $30.8M. 🔸 The SEC's Division of Examinations put tokenization on its FY2027 priority list for more than 34,000 registrants, and flagged super intelligence for the first time. #Crypto 🔸 Arthur Hayes closed Maelstrom's directional book, and Lookonchain tallied $22.28M in sales across ETH and six other tokens, led by 6,400 ETH worth $15.2M. #Ethereum
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Faster than Solana isn't a pitch when Solana is already fast enough
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I rotate between alts and Bitcoin about once a week on a centralized exchange, and the fees are basically nothing. If fees are what's stopping you from rotating, they shouldn't be
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In a normal Bitcoin cycle, the first rally stops at the 2-year moving average. That's what happened in 2023. Today that line sits near 90K, which is why I think we can tag 90K in this chop, but not 100K before April.
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Waiting for Solana to be back at $234, its price at Bitcoin's 125K high, when Bitcoin gets there again? I wouldn't. That's about a 1.5x for Bitcoin, and Solana moves about 1.35x as much, so I'd expect $195 to $200
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Bitcoin dip calls change nothing if you aren't selling
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