Nationalist. BJP / Modi supporter. Politics and Election analysis. Witty and sarcastic. Humorous election/political stories. If you like my tweet, do follow me.
Bharat
Joined December 2015
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Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2027. A frank look at UP and a warning to myself, I could be very well wrong in UP. Why? The vote share I have from 22500 plus voters has never shown a lesser lead of 8% to BJP over SP. This is a big lead. But why do I say BJP will lose UP? Farmers are underpolled and that skews the vote share. Most pollsters are largely moving in towns. Even for rural seats, the polling is in towns. Yogi as we know has a massive lead in urban areas and in towns of rural seats. That skews vote shares. But overwhelming mood of farmer voter seems badlav. The big data point is that each UP seat Rural and semi urban has massive farm vote. The latest Ganna rate issue is further cause of problems for BJP. UP-403 seats. Others-5 seats. INDI-236 seats. NDA- 162 seats. Keep tracking. Thanks.
Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2027. Dont lie Manoj. Bhajpa winning 350.
आज सुबह से उत्तर प्रदेश के भ्रमण पर हूँ। इसलिए X पर ज्यादा सक्रिय नहीं रह पाया।
मथुरा से लेकर कानपुर, फतेहपुर, प्रयागराज और बनारस तक, जिन लोगों से भी बातचीत हो रही है, उनमें एक बात बार-बार सुनने को मिल रही है—इस बार प्रदेश में सपा की लहर जैसी चर्चा है।
ग्राउंड रियलिटी चाहे जो भी हो, लेकिन जिस तरह भाजपा के समर्थक भी इस लहर की चर्चा कर रहे हैं, वह निश्चित रूप से प्रदेश की राजनीतिक चर्चाओं में एक महत्वपूर्ण संकेत है।
देखना दिलचस्प होगा कि यह चर्चा आगे किस रूप में सामने आती है।
Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2027. Daily 400 paar reminder below. Hail CM of Universe-Bulldozerji and greetings to his dholak bajao gang members.
Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2027. Pollster JVC on TV and talks on Uttar Pradesh elections. Says fight is close. Pensions stopped (not all but some), Babus are running amock, MLAs have to fight with Babus, the world's best CM supposedly but 1 crore Hindu voters cut in voters list. Now CM seems in absolute panic on the SIR deletions. Loose cattle wrecking havoc on farmers and uresolved despite PM promises, fertilizer shortages and long queues for farmers. BJP supporters and BJP trolls imagining 300 plus should reserve a bed in a mental hospital, kyonki shock zabardast lag sakta hai.
Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2027. See tweet below. I keep hearing this stuff from many handles that Bjp top leadership has given a free hand to Yogi.
1. I am not sure if it is good or bad. Yogi is aloof from Bjp Karyakartas. 2. He seems comfortable with Babus only.
3. Also these handles which tweet this-I mean is Yogi some superman.
4. Mlas struggle to get cosy with Yogi. Yogi lacks warmth and required connect.
5. Yogi never mixes with ordinary people on the streets. All his events are just a stage and often useless speeches.
6. Even if you see his daily darbar, he walks aloof, picks up parchis, seems to read and hand over to a flunky. Once in a while picks up a kid for a photo op.
7. Lastly I am seeing some messages that 1000s of Bjp karyakartas were summoned to Lucknow to help clear the SIR mess in which more than a crore Hindu names got deleted.
Better that Bjp give a walkover to Red Cap Devil. Itni bakwas government maine apni Zindagi mein nahi dekhi.
🚨 BIG organizational push by UP BJP in Lucknow today over the Voter Revision Campaign:
– Follows CM Yogi Adityanath flagging 1.25 Cr missing Hindu voters post-SIR
– BJP TOP leadership reportedly grants CM Yogi a "FREE HAND" on UP election strategy
– Hours-long workshop underway at Indira Gandhi Pratishthan; MPs, MLAs & ministers to be given VOTER-ADDITION targets 🔥
Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2027. Latest. Same numbers. Havent added voters. Been busy. UP-403 seats. Others-4 seats. INDI-240 to 259 seats. NDA-140 to 159 seats. New alliance announced between Ravan and Owaisi. I see traction in few seats like Matera, Nagina and Barabanki. Two of these Barabanki and Matera are already in NDA in my excel. I may mostly convert Nagina to NDA from SP. Some people pinging me on this whether it will benefit to BJP. I have doubts. BJP is losing a big chunk of the farmland vote irrespective of caste and that will damage BJP more than anything else. Yogi govt yet not announced new increased Ganna rate and farmers' patience is being breached even in strong NDA areas of Western UP. Keep tracking. Thanks.
NVidia chief Jensen Huang resigns on grounds of alleged infidelity. America is a country of clowns. 95% American CEOs will need to quit on same grounds. Difference is just exposed and unexposed. Bluidy it reeks of hypocrisy. Huang type CEOs should see Ramayana where Bhagwan Ram assures Mithila Naresh Janak.
Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2027. Bulldozer Tsunami as per Bjp supporting Abhishek Tewari, Bihari pollster. He blocked me, so unable to quote him so text of his poll below. But before his data. My two cents. Best way for any pollster to start a new state, new election is with following 2 principles. 1. Delete from the brain ki - XYZ hi jeetega aur koi nahi jeetega. 2. Go with open mind that Koi bhi jeet sakta hai.
The Abhishek Tiwary Show
@atsshow7
NDA 275-285
Samajvadi party+ Congress 90- 110
Others - 5-9
UP Election 2027
More details coming soon
Ramayana Movie. Stepped out to see the movie. And not sure what the coincidence or what, suddenly my extended Family Whatsapp exploded with big criticism. My maternal aunt postedsome Swamiji critique. Two more - one uncle and aunt joined in saying anti Hindu agenda hai and what not. I started arguing that I am not going to be taken in by some Talibani Swami dude. My sister in law or Bhabhi who supports me always posted Dushyant Sridhar review and added words that yeh achchai hai aur sermon type nahi hai. One of my uncle said I was not worthy of my pious grandpa on whose name the Whatsapp group runs. Moreoever my close cousin betrayed me by saying Ranbeer beef khata hai so movie nahi dekhega. I cursed myself for getting dragged in this. I bought tkts just before the controversy started. Bhagwan Ram. Mujhe shakti de.
Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2027. Public be like:
1. Clown cannot get his own state right.
2. Methods are dubious.
3. Which clown watches Youtube videos sitting 1500 km away from a state?
4. Keeps tweeting daily bakchodi types and keeps upping and downing numbers.
5. Has the temerity and arrogance to call the great Maharajji as incompetent.
6. Zaroor paisa khaya hoga from Red Cap Shaitan.
7. Previous election he took money from missionaries to tweet a million times that Vijay will win, now trying total tagebaiting in UP.
8. And he calls himself Hindu.
Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2027. Latest. UP-403 seats. Others-4. INDI- 240 to 260 seats. NDA- 140 to 159 seats. BJP losing UP due to widespread farm anger, widespread inconveniences to farmers. The Sarkar seems clueless on the farm issues. Keep tracking. Thanks.
Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2027. Some Advocate and data scientist below. Point wise reply.
1. Not from UP. 1500 kms away actually.
2. I dont know nuances of any state at all but guess what- I estimates elections better.
3. Agreed I am not pollster or renowned psephologist. But just that my tic tac toe unscientific methods beat India's biggest pollsters often.
4. Appreciate mat karo but pray very hard that incompetent Bulldozerji crosses the line. Awake black tongue has been very dangerous in past.
5. Yes parties should spend money off SM. SM pe kuch nahi kiya ja sakta. So agreed.
6. Agreed journalists are loud mouthed asses.
7. Mere analysis mein gaps 100% hai but I catch the trend- better than most.
Good day. If you are a Bhajpa supporter, break 108 coconuts at nearest Ganesh temple and pray hard. Banta haiji
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Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2027. Giant Bulldozer Tsunami loading. Multiple internal surveys.
Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2027 and National politics. Reply to below post. This is what may happen.
1. BJP/Yogi loses 2027 assembly.
2. Yogi is called to Center, takes up Defense Minister post or someother ministry. Rajnath is elevated or changed to something else.
3. Akhilesh brings back Goondgardi in UP and in a year, public starts wanting Yogi back in UP.
4. BJP wins 2029 easily as UP will have SP/Congress MP anti incumbency.
5. Cannot say who will be PM, but RSS may initiate leadership question. BJP will get engaged in a US presidential primary kind of internal election exercise to choose a new PM mostly a year after 2029 election win.
बाबा का बढ़िया है।
27 मे यूपी जीते, तो 29 मे मोशा की दावेदारी को चैलेंज करेंगे।औऱ भारी भी पड़ेंगे। मगर 27 हारे, तो 29 मे यूपी से मोशा को साफ कर देंगे।
•••
फिर 32 की तैयारी करेंगे, जीते, तो 34 मे बड़ी दावेदारी करेंगे।
तब सामने कोई नहीं होगा। मोशा ने उनके सामने खड़ा हो सकने वाला हर दावेदार मिटा दिया है।
भाजपा मे कोई सेकेण्ड लाइन नहीं है। भजन, मोहन, साय, मांझी, धामी वगैरह ताबेदार औऱ दरबारी हैं, लीडर नहीं। बस,फड़नवीस से निपटना होगा।
औऱ किसी भी हाल मे भाजपा के नफरती कोर वोटर के लिए योगी, फड़नवीस से अधिक आकर्षक हैं। विश्वसरमा, ख़ारिज हैं - बाहरी आदमी, औऱ असम के बाहर अपील नहीं है।
•••
उम्र उनके साथ हैं, बड़ा नेता हईये हैं।
औऱ 15 साल भी वेटिंग गेम खेल सकते है।
बस पिच पर खडे रहना है, हर बाल डक करनी है। रन भी नहीं बनाने, आउट नहीं होना। औऱ इसलिए इस वक़्त उनका सबसे बड़ा सहारा, अखिलेश हो सकते है। ठीक उसी तरह की जुगलबंदी,
जैसे कल्याण सिँह औऱ मुलायम हुआ करते थे।
आपका क्या कहना है?
Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2027. Bas bilkul aisa confidence chahiye without an iota of pulse of the ground of UP. Chanakya and incompetent Bulldozer will become Presidents of the universe.
साल 2014
बीजेपी का एक नेता कुछ दिनों के लिए गोरखनाथ मठ में ठहरता है। वह योगी आदित्यनाथ की दिनचर्या देखता है। अनुशासित जीवन, जनता से सीधा जुड़ाव, स्पष्ट बोलने का स्वभाव और इतिहास की उनकी समझ से वह बेहद प्रभावित होता है।
उसी साल उत्तर प्रदेश के विधानसभा उपचुनाव में भाजपा का प्रदर्शन खराब रहता है। लेकिन यह नेता हार का ठीकरा योगी के सिर फोड़ने के पक्ष में नहीं खड़ा होता। उसका तर्क होता है कि उपचुनाव में प्रदेश की सत्ताधारी पार्टी को बढ़त मिलती है, इसके लिए योगी को जिम्मेदार नहीं ठहराया जा सकता।
योगी के लिए खड़ा होने वाला यह नेता कौन था?
अमित शाह
अब साल 2017 में आइए
योगी आदित्यनाथ गोरखपुर में हैं। दिल्ली से एक व्यक्ति उन्हें फोन करता है। उन्हें दिल्ली बुलाया जाता है। आने के लिए विशेष विमान की व्यवस्था होती है। दिल्ली पहुंचने पर यह व्यक्ति उन्हें बताता है कि अब उत्तर प्रदेश के मुख्यमंत्री की जिम्मेदारी संभालनी है।
फोन करने वाला व्यक्ति कौन था?
अमित शाह
और अब साल 2026
30 अक्टूबर को लखनऊ में वही अमित शाह भरे मंच से कहते हैं कि उत्तर प्रदेश में भाजपा सरकार अंगद के पांव की तरह है, जिसे कोई हिला नहीं सकता। इसी मंच से वह योगी आदित्यनाथ को उत्तर प्रदेश को माफियाओं से मुक्त करने के लिए बधाई देते हैं।
आज बात अमित शाह के इसी दौरे की, क्योंकि इसके बाद से विपक्षी खेमे में भय का माहौल है। काफी समय से उत्तर प्रदेश में 'योगी बनाम शाह' की मनोहर कहानी बेचने का प्रयास हो रहा था। दिल्ली के 2BHK पत्रकारों का गैंग भी इसे खूब हवा दे रहा था।
लेकिन अमित शाह ने एक झटके में इस कहानी की हवा निकाल दी। इससे अखिलेश यादव का इकोसिस्टम बेचैन है। ले देकर उनके पास एक कहानी बेचने को थी, क्योंकि चुनावी मैदान में योगी के मुकाबले में वे किसी मोर्चे पर टिकते नहीं हैं। ऐसे में उनका प्रयास था कि मतदाताओं के मन में भ्रम पैदा किया जा सके कि यदि बीजेपी जीत भी गई तो अमित शाह अबकी बार योगी को सीएम नहीं बनने देंगे।
विपक्ष के इस बम को फुस्स कर अमित शाह ने न केवल योगी आदित्यनाथ के साथ अपनी मजबूत बॉन्डिंग के बारे में फिर से बताया है, बल्कि अखिलेश यादव के गैंग के पिछवाड़े में ऐसा रॉकेट दागा है वे ठीक से कुथ भी नहीं पा रहे हैं।
Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2027. Many people pinging me that Chanaya arrived to micromanage UP. My response. Bharatiya bro, not trolling you and acknowleding what you say.
See bro. All these better coordination between Chanakya and CM, better candidate selection etc has no meaning. It is worse than Titanic right now. Seats which BJP won by 1 Lakh margin, by 60000 margin in areas where SP has no real presence are in trouble, hard core Lodhi Bahulya seat of Kalyan Singh is in trouble. Such is the terrible rural anti incumbency. Unless and until CM Yogi acknowledges the fact that he has goofed up big time, unless and until he takes serious measures to resolve issues, nothing is gonna work. I get your national interest pitch and I am conscious of it but Yogi will be responsbile for pushing UP into Andhkaar again, whole and sole single responsible. Chanakya can deploy the Chinese Red Army and the entire Indian army, kuch nahi hoga. Bhajpa is headed for defeat.
Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2027. Latest.
1. UP-403 seats.
2. Voters heard- 22449.
3. Others-4.
4. INDI alliance- 240 seats and forming government possibly.
5. NDA-159 seats.
6. While voters heard figure is increasing, the seat share seems to have stabilized.
7. Yogi govt facing multiple challenges. Loose cattle issue unresolved. Fertilizer delivery mess causing huge anti incumbency. Flooding insurance muwavza not adequate. Sugarcane rate increase expectations unfulfilled so far. Note till now it looked like a sweep for NDA in Western UP, but not anymore as the sugarcane price is causing a hurdle to that. I believe RLD chief has talked to CM for increase but what I am hearing from farmers is very high expectations and thus disappointment may be in store. Pensions not going fully for months in few areas. Schools merged causing issues to rural population. Rations cut for some people. Overall a constant refrain from voters that hamari sunwai nahi ho rahi.
8. Several opinion polls creating over confidence for BJP like some BJP internal poll, Matrize, Saavyasachi, several BJP supporting handles on X.
9. Keep tracking. Thanks.
Chennai Diwali. Chennai and Tamilnadu celebrating Diwali with great pomp and decibel after electing Vijay as CM. Happy Diwali to all.
Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2027. Latest slow death update. UP-403 seats. Others-4 seats. INDI- 240 seats. NDA- 159 seats. Adjusted NDA down by another 10 seats since yesterday as suddenly noise is increasing on Ganna rate. Sugarcane is grown widely in UP and sugarcane rate is Rs. 4 per kilo. Farmers want minimum Rs. 5 per kilo and some want Rs. 6. Many farmers including RLD supporting farmers have now started saying if the rate is not increased to the levels they want, the vote will be either NOTA or SP alliance. Historical evidence shows increases of only 25 paise or 30 paise per Kilo. While above sounds like blackmail, the Ganna kisaan lagat has increased big. The UP2027 farmers revolt will end up adding a crescendo of troubles for Modi govt for 2029. Yesterday some people pinged me a supposed internal poll of Bjp at 260. My repeated view is that such polls are making Bjp over confident. Happy Diwali and keep tracking.