Rob

$IBIT option market has been extremely interesting to watch the last 6 months, especially in comparison to $MSTR. (As far as options go, nearly identical liquidity profiles at $20-30B and 20-30% net DEX relative to their underlying "market caps"). IBIT Net Delta exposure has grown from $4B to $16B since May, peaking at $20B. During that time MSTR net DEX has been quite flat around the $24B level. Probably more interestingly, IBIT positions have been significantly more long than MSTR (skew-adjusted dex was actually 50% greater than MSTR last week before the volatile Friday). Very weird/unique setup. What's this mean? There has been a growing dynamic where BTC long exposure is increasing in IBIT while nominally higher IV premiums in MSTR continue to be sold. So what's THAT mean? It means we will continue to see opportunities like last week, where IBIT volatility is mispriced relative to MSTR. This provides alpha in regards to "tipping points" in BTC price action (via hedging dynamics) and mispricing of risk in MSTR relative to IBIT/BTC. Also, small, but significant side note: with IBIT Net dex in the $20B range (20% of IBITs net assets). IBIT delta hedging dynamics are going to play a significant role in BTC price action going forward. Very cool for us option nerds!

If only there was some type of indication prior to Fridays $BTC volatility 😅 Should be an interesting Monday in $MSTR . IV will be pumping in the negative gex territory - see if the vol sellers are willing to step in for control 👀 275-325 is quite the range

$IBIT long-vol exposure is now 300% greater than $MSTR as of Friday. IBIT = 1mnav MSTR = 1.45 1mnav 👀

It's really too bad $GME fumbled the bag. $1.5B worth of $84k BTC would have been a nice bump to that EPS and declining revenues 🤷

Barcharts added a nice little feature to their GEX charts. Gamma curve! (Mislabeled as Delta Exposure, but hey, at least their trying 😅 data is still more actionable from gamma strike, but makes it easier for me to screen shot 🙌) $MSTR sitting right smack at gamma max in the premarket with $BTC back near 110. With IV near all time lows it will be pretty difficult to move up much over 395 with volatility well under control ($MSTY maybe sweating it a bit here). The obvious trade here is butterflies on the 3dte contracts, or call credit spreads if you think BTC will have trouble pushing past 110 (this would be my bias for the week). Having said that... With the blowout ("bewilderment" 😅) earnings coming up, the severely depressed/suppressed IV has created the opportunity for an outsized upside move. Soft CPI tomorrow, BTC strength and MSTR speculative bids could really stoke the speculative fire. If long calls begin to bid up IV pre-earnings, we have a scenario where MMs could have real difficulty containing the volatility. I opened a new long with cheap July 450 calls yesterday. If we continue to get hung up in the 385-395 area this week, I'll likely add to this with the intention to hold through earnings. If we press into 450 pre-earnings and IV starts to spike, I'll exit around 450 and happy to just hold my September's and Jans through earnings. Good luck! Let's go orange coin!

The $STRK shares I added to my retirement account are up +20% and my $MSTR I added the same day are now +11% 😅 Interesting...

$MSTR moving down into the negative gamma range (outsized move potential vs BTC). Could produce opportunities for 7dte contracts. Looking at some 7dte strangles to play the 350-400 range. Big MSTR divergences from BTC intraday moves are opportunities - then trade MSTR in the direction of BTC strength/weakness. One big caveat is the $MSTY strikes that will be opened next week (if they do not roll down, and target the 410-430 area again I like the strangles more - if they roll down into the 390-400, we probably get a stable downside bleed)

Watching the $MSTR price action around this 430 level. Curious what @RichardByworth would think about the effects of the 2030 and 2029 convertible bonds on the underlying. Am I off-base with my napkin math here? About $2.5B in delta exposure being hedged around this high gamma area? 🧐

There's still alpha to be had in $MSTR when the critics have just enough experience to be dangerous to themselves. "MSTR is screwing shareholders because Saylor is harvesting market-dynamic demand for the common shares... Also, I'm going to provide Saylor with demand-liquidity because MSTR has "crazy gamma dropoff" market-dynamic alpha to be harvested." 😂🍻 teapawt.net/LeverageMcgee/status/1…

$10B $MSTR JPY denominated CB.

Nice $MSTR morning move 385-404. Out of all my short dated positions until after earnings (other than the June 500s 🧐). Got some $MSTY rolls - all 382.50s and 25% of their 385 into 405. Synth moved to June at the 390 strike. Touching 390 right now which is tempting to go long... But expect some games to get played this afternoon before earnings. *Reluctantly sitting on hands* 😅

We have some fun premarket PA shaping up for $MSTR on the back of BTC strength into the important 96-98k range. Bulk of the $MSTY short call position sitting at 390-392.50. MSTR will find heavy resistance in this range, and with us trading around 393 in the premarket, I would expect a retracement back into 380-385 if BTC doesn't push much further over 96.2k. Pullbacks into 380-385 are nice area to get long exposure for the morning. (The stacks of gamma will be supportive to the downside). Unemployment claims continue to tick higher, so we could see a continuing BTC bid on the back of increasing liquidity injection speculation. If MSTR can continue pressure over 392 and into the 397-405 level, we will see a supportive bid from MSTY rolling. This would expand our range for the day into 400-420. 410 would be my high target for day trade take profits. Earnings after the close tonight will likely be preceded by some volatility in both directions today. Shaping up to be a very fun trading day 😅

Thank you for your sacrifice $MSTY 🙏 362.50s capitulated. Can get some volatility now into end of day. 🍻

$MSTY squeezed with the BTC strength and sucking up $MSTR. Forced to roll their 350-355 to next week (382-390). Haven't seen their massive 362.50 position rolled yet. If MSTR can pressure 370-372, we are going to get more supportive PA from the 362s capitulated. Spicy spicy

If you were looking for another indicator as to why "alt season" is dead and buried... Tradfi absolutely vacuuming speculative liquidity $CEP 😅

$MSTR looking healthy for a move higher with $BTC taking back the short-term holder cost basis level at 92.5k. I'm not expecting any major squeeze or outperformance of $MSTR vs $BTC, but if BTC can maintain 92.5k-94k, MSTR should continue higher into the 365 level. $MSTY 330-340 sold calls will be quite underwater if we open in the 355 area. If PA can maintain 350-355, these sold calls are likely to be rolled into the 370-390 weeklies and pulling MSTR up into 365. MSTR IV has continued to be relatively muted - which is great to see for a nice stable move higher. I'll be looking to roll the majority of my June calls to the Septembers-Januarys with IV remaining muted. If MSTR outperforms BTC today (pops over 370 with BTC under 94), I'll open some call credit spreads expecting price to stall out in the major gex levels at 365-375. Thank you orange man 🙏

Spicy boi. Out of 75% 3dte long calls. Holding the last quarter to see where we get a crush now. Looks like we are repriced into 352 for the next control area.